Suchergebnisse

Purpose– The commercial property market is complex, but the literature suggests that simple models can forecast it. To confirm the claim, the purpose of this paper is to assess a set of models to forecast UK commercial property market.Design/methodology/approach– The employs five modelling techniques, including Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), ARIMA with a vector of an explanatory variable(s) (ARIMAX), Simple Regression (SR), Multiple Regression, and Vector Autoregression (VAR) to model IPD UK All Property Rents Index. The Bank Rate, Construction Orders, Employment, Expenditure, FTSE AS Index, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Inflation are all explanatory variables selected for the research.Findings– The modelling results confirm that increased model complexity does not necessarily yield greater forecasting accuracy. The analysis shows that although the more complex VAR specification is amongst the best fitting models, its accuracy in producing out-of-sample forecasts is poorer than of some less complex specifications. The average Theil'sU-value for VAR model is around 0.65, which is higher than that of less complex SR with Expenditure (0.176) or ARIMAX (3,0,3) with GDP (0.31) as an explanatory variable models.Practical implications– The paper calls analysts to make forecasts more user-friendly, which are easy to use or understand, and for researchers to pay greater attention to the development and improvement of simpler forecasting techniques or simplification of more complex structures.Originality/value– The paper addresses the issue of complexity in modelling commercial property market. It advocates for simplicity in modelling and forecasting.

Purpose– The paper aims to discuss the major and auxiliary types of cycles found in the literature.Design/methodology/approach– The existence of cycles within economy and its sub-sectors has been studied for a number of years. In the wake of the recent cyclical downturn, interest in cycles has increased. To mitigate future risks, scholars and investors seek new insights for a better understanding of the cyclical phenomenon. The paper presents systematic review of the existing copious cyclical literature. It then discusses general characteristics and the key forces that produce these cycles.Findings– The study finds four major and eight auxiliary cycles. It suggests that each cycle has its own distinct empirical periodicity and theoretical underpinnings. The longer the cycles are the greater controversy which surrounds them.Practical implications– Cycles are monumental to a proper understanding of complex property market dynamics. Their existence implies that economies, whilst not deterministic, have a rhythm. Cyclical awareness can therefore advance property market participants.Originality/value– The paper uncovers four major and eight auxiliary types of cycles and argues their importance.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to assess the duration of the UK commercial property cycles, their volatility and persistence to gauge future market direction.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs a novel approach to dissect cycles in a form of a three-step algorithm. First, the Hodrick-Prescott de-trends the selected variables. Second, volatility (measured by the variance) screens periods of atypical fluctuations in the series. Finally, the series is regressed against its past values to assess the level of persistence. The sequential steps screen the length of the cycles in UK commercial property market to facilitate interpretation.FindingsThe estimates suggest that UK commercial property market follows an eight-year cycle. Combined modelling results indicate that the current market trend is likely to change over the coming year. The modelling suggests increasing probability of a market correction in late 2016/early 2017.Practical implicationsThis updated appreciation of the UK commercial property cycle duration allows for better market timing and investment decision making.Originality/valueThe paper adds additional evidence on the contested issue of UK commercial property cycle duration.

Despite a burgeoning literature, the role of bohemians in the urban milieu and in initiatives toward regeneration remains contested. As a first step toward later modeling and application, we present a thoroughgoing literature review, a short commentary on bohemian phenomena, and suggested readings. Since qualitative sources dominate the field, the review is structured rather than fully systematic in the scientific sense. After discarding innumerable irrelevant and incidental papers, three strands remained for subsequent analysis: "bohemian," "bohemian + creative-city," and "smart regeneration." The first is static or historically contextualized, situated best in the humanities. The last two strands are dynamic and dissect, descriptively or analytically, elements of bohemianism relevant to the urban scene. Wherever and whenever they emerge, radical bohemian artists test existing limits or incite transformative action.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to develop a General Systems Theory (GST) risk management framework and conducts a preliminary investigation into its potential benefits.Design/methodology/approachA risk management framework with four domains is developed by applying GST to property. Risk management in five listed Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts (A‐REITs) is benchmarked against the GST ideal using public web‐sites information. A‐REIT volatility‐adjusted returns are calculated using Treynor ratios for the year to May 2010. The link between risk management score and entity performance is then investigated.FindingsThe GST framework directs attention to risks involving surveillance, capacity and controls. However, as predicted by the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), the study found no link between assessed risk management and volatility‐moderated annual returns to May 2010.Research limitations/implicationsThe risk scoring was predicated on publicly available data, with limited analysis of financial statements. The sample size was restricted.Practical implicationsSuccessful entities are well governed, focused and innovative. Robust finances allow exploitation of emerging opportunity when business conditions become favourable. Planning and environmental management capabilities are essential.Originality/valueThe paper makes conceptual and practical contributions. Conceptually, it develops a GST risk management framework. Practically, albeit for a handful of entities, the paper illustrates how the GST approach to risk management could be effectively deployed. The paper also outlines a pathway for more refined risk management research.