Suchergebnisse

AbstractMonitoring and evaluation (M&E) for ecosystem‐based adaptation (EbA) projects is in its infancy. Specific M&E challenges lend EbA projects to the use of program theory. In this article, we will examine how two theory‐based tools—theory‐of‐change models and evidence synthesis—can be used to instruct informative EbA M&E through characterizing pathways to impact, identifying causal mechanisms, distinguishing relevant indicators, and recognizing areas of uncertainty, particularly in data‐poor environments where intuition and anecdote often substitute for evidence. It will be framed in the context of two EbA case studies, implemented by our organization, in which we will bring together elements from the development of theory‐of‐change models and provide examples of evidence synthesis underpinning a causal linkage. We argue that such an approach is essential for EbA projects to enable rapid learning and foster a culture of adaptive management.

Cities are dependent on their upstream watersheds for storage and gradual release of water into river systems. These watersheds act as important flood mitigation infrastructure, providing an essential ecosystem service. In this paper we use metrics from the WaterWorld model to examine the flood management-relevant natural infrastructure of the upstream watersheds of selected global cities. These metrics enable the characterisation of different types, magnitudes and geographical distributions of potential natural flood storage. The storages are categorised as either green (forest canopy, wetland and soil) or blue (water body and floodplain) storages and the proportion of green to blue indicates how different city upstream basin contexts provide different types and levels of storage which may buffer flood risk. We apply the WaterWorld method for examining flood risk as the ratio of accumulated modelled annual runoff volume to accumulated available green and blue water storage capacity. The aim of these metrics is to highlight areas where there is more runoff than storage capacity and thus where the maintenance or restoration of further natural infrastructure (such as canopy cover, wetlands and soil) could aid in storing more water and thus better alleviate flood risks. Such information is needed by urban planners, city authorities and governments to help prepare cities for climate change impacts.

Cities are investing billions of dollars in climate change adaptation to combat the effects of sea‐level rise, temperature extremes, increasingly intense storm events, flooding and water scarcity. Natural ecosystems have enormous potential to contribute to city resilience, and so, actions that rely on this approach could sustain considerable co‐benefits for biodiversity. In this paper we identify the prevalence of key themes of human adaptation response that could have biodiversity conservation outcomes in cities. We then quantify the area of impact for actions that identify specific targets for greening or green infrastructure that could involve natural ecosystems, providing an indicator of potential co‐benefits to biodiversity. We then extrapolate to explore the total area of land that could benefit from catchment management approaches, the area of waterways that could benefit from nature‐based improvement of these spaces, and finally the number of threatened species that could benefit across these cities. From 80 city climate adaptation plans analysed, we found that urban greening plays a key role in most adaptation strategies, and represents an enormous opportunity for biodiversity conservation, given the diversity of animal and plant species in urban environments. We show that the ranges of at least 270 threatened species overlap with the area covered by just 58 city adaptation plans, including watershed catchments totalling over 28 million km2. However, an analysis of 80 city adaptation plans (of a total 151 found globally) shows that this opportunity is being missed. Just 18% of the plans assessed contained specific intentions to promote biodiversity. We highlight this missed opportunity, as climate adaptation actions undertaken by cities represent an enormous incipient opportunity for nature conservation. Finally, we encourage planners and city governments to incorporate biological conservation into climate adaption plans, for the mutual benefit of urban societies and their biodiversity.