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Cover -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Fiscal Reform in Theoretical Macroeconomic Models: Neoclassical and Endogenous Growth Theory -- A. Overview -- B. Neoclassical Growth Theory -- C. Endogenous Growth Models -- III. The Model -- A. Consumers -- B. Firms -- C. The Government -- D. Competitive Equilibrium -- E. Steady State Growth: The Balanced Growth Path -- F. The Mechanism Driving Long Run Growth -- G. Stability of the Balanced Growth Path -- IV. Fiscal Reform Packages: The Transition Path to a New BGP -- A. A Numerical Simulation -- V. Conclusion -- Figures

Many studies have sought to gauge the impact of population growth on economic growth. A well‐known stylized fact of this literature is that the estimated effects of population growth measures on economic growth are not robust, varying between being positive, negative, and insignificantly different from zero. The present study analyzes 471 statistical regressions from 29 prominent economic growth studies using meta‐regression analysis to identify the effect of alternative methodologies on key population growth results. This study finds that a broad set of methodological factors explains more than half of the variation in the population growth effects observed from this literature, including the types of variables used to measure population growth, the countries selected, the time frame of the analysis, and the nature of the control variables specified. The study also yields results that have implications for policymakers, especially insofar as several policy factors seem to influence the population change–economic growth nexus. Particularly strong is the evidence in support of the increasingly adverse effects of population growth in the post‐1980 period, suggesting that demographic issues should warrant greater attention than they currently receive from the policymaking community.

Cover -- Contents -- ABSTRACT -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. PREVIOUS LITERATURE ON EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS -- III. FISCAL CRISES EPISODES -- A. Definition of Fiscal Crises -- B. Examining Behavior of Key Economic Variables Around Fiscal Crises -- C. Advanced and Emerging Economies -- D. Low Income Countries -- IV. ESTIMATION STRATEGY AND DATA -- A. Alternative Approaches to Predict Crises -- B. Data -- V. EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS -- A. Advanced and Emerging Economies -- B. Low Income Countries -- VI. CONCLUSION -- REFERENCES -- APPENDIX I. DATA -- FIGURES -- 1.1 Probability of Starting a Fiscal Crisis -- 3.1. Event Studies. Advanced and Emerging Economies -- 3.2. Ratio of Budget Grants to Current Expenditure -- 3.3. Event Studies. Low Income Countries -- 5.1. Signals Composite Indicator: Setting the Cut-off Threshold -- 5.2. Average Marginal Effects for AMs and EMs -- TABLES -- 3.1. Number of Identified Fiscal Crisis Episodes (1970-2015) -- 4.1. Occurrence of Crisis-True versus Predicted -- 5.1. Early Warning System for AEs and EMs: Signals Approach -- 5.2. Advanced and Emerging Economies Logit Model -- 5.3. Early Warning System for LICs (all countries): Signals Approach -- 5.4. Low Income Countries Logit Model -- APPENDIX TABLES -- A.1. Sample Countries -- A.2. (1970-2015). Leading Indicators (1 Lag) -- Advanced and Emerging Economies -- A.3. (1970-2015): Leading Indicators (2 Lags) -- Advanced and Emerging Economies -- A.4. Early Warning System for AE and EMs: Signals Approach -- A.5. Pooled Logit. Advanced and Emerging Economies -- A.6. Predictive Performance -- A.7. Leading Indicators of Fiscal Crises (1 Lag) -- Low Income Countries -- A.8. Leading Indicators of Fiscal Crises (2 Lags) -- LIC Countries -- A.9. Early Warning System for LICs (all countries): Signals Approach

Cover -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Stylized Facts -- III. Methodology -- IV. Fiscal Behavior -- V. Results -- Baseline and Macroeconomic Uncertainty -- Fiscal Behavior -- Financing Mix and the Real Exchange Rate -- Policy Scenarios -- VI. Conclusions -- References -- Boxes -- 1. Materialization of Contingent Liabilities in LICs: Some Examples -- Figures -- 1. Incremental Estimated Annual Investment Needs -- 2. LICs: Decomposition of Government Debt Evolution -- 3. Interest Growth Differentials -- 4. LICs: Change in Real Exchange Rate -- 5. LICs: Financing Mix of Sample Countries -- 6. LICs: Real Interest Rate Differentials -- 7. Volatilities of Macroeconomic Variables -- 8. Largest Annual Changes on Tax Revenue -- 9. LIC: Real GDP Growth -- 10. Financial Depth, 2015 -- 11. Main Sources of Contingent Liabilities in Low-income Countries -- 12. Materialization of Contingent Liabilities: Some Examples -- 13. Illustration of Fiscal Space -- 14. LICs: Fiscal Space -- 15. LICs: Alternative Assumptions on Fiscal Behavior -- 16. LICs: Fiscal Space under Different Fiscal Behavior -- 17. LICs: Fiscal Space under Different Assumptions on Financing Mix and the Real Exchange Rate -- 18. Fiscal Space, Interest Rate Differentials, and the Exchange Rate -- 19. Increase of Fiscal Space under Scaling-Up of Public Investment -- 20. Increase of Fiscal Space under DRM -- A2.1. LICs: Residual Stock-Flow Adjustments -- A3.1. Student's T-Distribution PDF -- A3.2. Bolivia: Shocks to the Growth Rate -- Tables -- 1. Estimation Results for Fiscal Reaction Function -- A4.1. Estimation Result for the Fiscal Reaction Function: Further Specifications -- Appendices -- I. Data -- II. Stock Flow Adjustments and Contingent Liabilities -- III. The Stochastic Simulation Model -- IV. Fiscal Reaction Function: Econometric Issues and Robustness