Suchergebnisse

We analyze the changes in business cycle synchronization among 16 industrial countries the over the past century and a quarter, demarcated into four exchange rate regimes. We find a secular trend towards increased synchronization for much of the twentieth century that has occurred across diverse exchange rate regimes. This finding contrasts with the mixed results reported in the recent literature, which has focused on the evidence for the past 20 or 30 years. Examining the role of global shocks and shock transmission in the rising synchronization, we find that global (common) shocks generally are the dominant influence.

A historical perspective on the secular stagnation hypothesis and its relevance for Asia -- Asia : at risk of growing old before becoming rich? -- Invention, productivity, and the evolution of East Asia's innovation systems -- Secular stagnation and Asia : international transmission and policy spillovers -- Japanese lessons from the past 30 years -- Japan -- Korea -- China -- India -- Indonesia -- Speech by Obstfeld -- Monetary and exchange rate policies for sustained growth in Asia -- Monetary policy in the new mediocre -- Fiscal policy -- Global imbalances and the trade slowdown : implications for Asia -- Panel discussion