Suchergebnisse

Este artículo presenta una visión general del gobierno finlandés y la previsión parlamentaria: su origen y motivación, así como la organización, agencia, proceso y prácticas. El ecosistema nacional de previsión proporciona el marco para el trabajo de previsión gubernamental y pública, es decir, para la previsión de políticas y la toma de decisiones relacionadas. Se presentan dos mecanismos con visión de futuro que se introdujeron especialmente para apoyar la toma de decisiones públicas: 1) la Oficina del Primer Ministro y los informes del Gobierno sobre el futuro, y 2) el Comité para el Futuro en el Parlamento. Necesitamos una gobernanza anticipatoria. A todos los gobiernos, a toda la gobernanza en ciudades, naciones, organizaciones, se deben introducir enfoques y métodos sistemáticos para el futuro. Cada país también podría prosperar100 mediante el establecimiento de una Sociedad de Estudios de Futuros, como lo hizo Finlandia en 1980, compuesta por miembros de orígenes muy diferentes, en un diálogo inclusivo sobre futuros a través de seminarios, publicaciones, etc. Actualmente, estamos viviendo la era de la profunda incertidumbre cuando la preparación proactiva para varios futuros inesperados es crucial. Además, la resiliencia futura es la capacidad necesaria para anticipar tales crisis, hacerles frente, aprender de ellas y reorganizarse. Tenemos que tomar las decisiones de hoy teniendo en cuenta la gobernanza para el futuro. En consecuencia, el desafío más reciente es incluir a las generaciones futuras en este mecanismo de previsión. Para la previsión pública, los hechos como evidencia son los más importantes. Sin embargo, para escanear adecuadamente los desarrollos futuros alternativos y tener conversaciones sobre qué políticas se necesitan para abordarlos, también se necesita imaginación. Además, los propios responsables de la formulación de políticas podrían beneficiarse de los conocimientos y las aplicaciones de los métodos de previsión, no sólo del uso de estudios de previsión.
Artikulu honek Finlandiako gobernuaren eta aurreikuspen parlamentarioaren ikuspegi orokorra ematen du: haren jatorria eta motibazioa, bai eta antolaketa, agentzia, prozesua eta praktikak ere. Aurreikuspen-ekosistema nazionalak gobernu-aurreikuspenerako eta aurreikuspen publikorako esparrua eskaintzen du, hau da, politikak aurreikusteko eta aurreikuspenokin lotutako erabakiak hartzeko esparrua. Etorkizunera begirako ikuspegia duten bi mekanismo aurkezten dira artikuluan, bereziki erabaki publikoak hartzen laguntzeko sortu zirenak: 1) Lehen Ministroaren Bulegoa eta etorkizunari buruz Gobernuak egindako txostenak, eta 2) Etorkizunerako Legebiltzarreko Batzordea. Gobernantza aurre-hartzailea behar dugu. Gobernu guztietan, hirietako, nazioetako eta erakundeetako gobernantza osoan, etorkizunera begirako ikuspegi eta metodo sistematikoak sartu behar dira. Finlandiak 1980an egin bezala, herrialde guztiek dute Etorkizunaren Ikaskuntzarako Elkarte bat ezarriz aurrera egiteko aukera; bertan, jatorri oso desberdineko kideek hartzen dute parte, etorkizunari buruzko elkarrizketa inklusibo batean, mintegien, argitalpenen eta abarren bidez. Gaur egun, ziurgabetasun sakoneko aro bat bizitzen ari gara, noiz eta etorkizunak ekarriko dizkigun ustekabeetara begira proaktiboki prestatzea funtsezkoa denean. Gainera, etorkizuneko erresilientzia da ate-joka ditugun krisiei aurrea hartzeko eta aurre egiteko beharrezkoa dugun gaitasuna, krisi horietatik ikasteko eta berrantolatzeko beharrezkoa dugun gaitasuna. Gaurko erabakiak etorkizuneko gobernantza kontuan hartuta hartu behar ditugu. Horrenbestez, egun, erronkarik behinena etorkizuneko belaunaldiak aurreikuspen-mekanismo horretan sartzea da. Aurreikuspen publikorako, ebidentzia diren egitateak dira garrantzitsuenak. Hala ere, irudimena ere behar da, etorkizuneko garapen alternatiboak behar bezala eskaneatzeko, eta horiei heltzeko zer politika behar diren eztabaidatzeko. Gainera, politikak formulatzeko ardura dutenek aurreikuspen-metodoen ezagutzez eta aplikazioez balia daitezke, ez bakarrik aurreikuspen-azterlanak erabiltzeaz.
This article presents an overview of the Finnish government and parliamentary foresight: its origin and motivation, as well as organization, agency, process and practices. The national foresight ecosystem provides the framework for government and public foresight work i.e. for policy foresight and related decision-making. Two forward-looking mechanisms which were specially introduced to support public decision-making are presented: 1) the Prime Minister's Office and Government Reports on the Future, and 2) the Committee for the Future in Parliament. We need anticipatory governance. To all governments, to all governance in cities, nations, organisations ¿ systematic futures approaches and methods should be introduced. Each country could also thrive100 from establishing a Society for Futures Studies as Finland did in 1980, comprising members from very different backgrounds into an inclusive futures dialogue via seminars, publications etc. Currently, we are living the age of deep uncertainty when proactive preparation for various unexpected futures is crucial. Moreover, futures resilience is the capacity needed for anticipating such crises, coping with them, learning from them, and for re-organisation. We need to make today¿s decisions as bearing in mind the governance for the futures. Accordingly, the most recent challenge is to include future generations into this foresight mechanism. For public foresight, facts as evidence matter most. However, in order to adequately scan alternative future developments and to have conversations on what policies are needed to tackle those, also imagination is needed. Furthermore, policy-makers themselves could benefit from the knowledge and applications of foresight methods, not just from using foresight studies.

This article introduces the Work/Technology 2050 study of the global Millennium Project and its main results. The article highlights how (invited) experts from different countries see the development of work and technology until 2050 and how they assess the three featured scenarios based on these views. In terms of technology, the study focused on the potential effects of artificial intelligence, while the role of basic income was given special consideration in the development prospects of work. In connection with the scenarios, the study produced hundreds of proposals for action under five different themes. Besides presenting and evaluating these scenarios and proposals for action, the Finnish authors of the article provide their own reflections and some critical remarks.

The purpose of this article is to review the futures studies activities performed in Finland, focusing especially on Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC). The activities include research, education as well as societal interaction and networking. The FFRC has proceeded from a small unit of three devoted persons in 1992 to one of the key futures research institutes in Europe with about fifty staff members, hundreds of research and developmental projects, and more than a thousand publications. Although acknowledging the variety of futures studies topics and approaches nourished by the researchers, we conclude that facilitating expert-based and stakeholder-based futures studies processes is the key competence of the FFRC. Hybrid methods are continuously developed, meaning combinations of more specific techniques. A proper mix of tools and approaches to gather, analyze, organize, and interpret data is always searched for. At the end of the article, we present four scenarios of the future of the FFRC jointly made by the staff.

The information society is becoming the experience society, and will eventually shift into the ubiquitous meanings society. The technological environment is created especially by the advancing Internet, mobile computing, cloud computing, social media, and application services. In a society driven by cultural meanings, people's needs and demands will be increasingly oriented toward genuine feelings, personal experiences and the purpose and meaning of life. Consequently, production will be aimed at satisfying these demands. Small enterprises with close relations to the customers and with a radically new corporate culture are needed to answer these needs. At the same time, we can foresee the emergence of the age of neo-entrepreneurs. The concept of entrepreneurship requires re-thinking: Society is moving away from ascetic Protestant values toward more hedonistic, romantic values, and so are the entrepreneurs. The future skills and competences are more generalized; high specialization is no longer enough. Multi-competent neo-entrepreneurs will excel in self-actualization and individual choices, added to enhanced possibilities for co-creation and collective creativity. Case results from a Futures Clinique exploring new business opportunities for entrepreneurs from 3-D worlds are also presented.

This article proposes that creativity and criticality not only can but should be entangled and elevated in participatory futuring engagements. Selected concepts from creativity theory and critical futures studies are applied to develop a set of futuring games through action research. We claim that participatory processes designed to entangle and elevate creativity and criticality produce more novel and varied ideas that better fit the purposes of futures studies. This article offers four arguments for combining creativity and criticality in participatory futuring engagements. First, due to complexity and uncertainty, the future is ultimately unknowable and requires tools to probe the unknown. Second, novelty is difficult to achieve in practice while creativity and criticality can help overcome these challenges. Third, discontinuities are the main sources of futures that are most radically different from the present and will have the biggest impact. Fourth, creativity and criticality support the rigorous imagining required for exploring and discovering new possible futures. This article analyzes three experimentations in entangling and elevating creativity and criticality in game-based futuring, stemming from Causal Layered Analysis. Based on these examples, we demonstrate that creativity and criticality, when combined, help people break through the limitations of current understanding, reveal approaching tipping points, and find the "unvisited cavities" through rhizomatic knowledge creation. However, there remain challenges in evaluating how well various participatory designs support creativity and criticality in practice. Context-sensitive evaluation tools and open sharing of outcomes are needed to develop participation design principles capable of supporting creativity and criticality in participatory futuring.

"How do we Explore our Future?" comprises 20 leading Finnish futurists revealing their practical and theoretical knowledge of futures studies. The texts are a cross-section of twenty years of futures research. The writers present methods and their practical applications, demonstrating various interactions between futures research and other fields of science. The book samples a large variety of modern futures studies' methodology including sections on evolutionary and systems thinking, expert-based knowledge evaluation and time-series based methods like Delphi and Causal Layered Analysis (CLA). The book also deals with communicative futures methods such as futures workshops and scenario work. In addition, it includes three chapters focusing on newer methods such as the anticipation of Weak Signals and Black Swans. This book is a comprehensive reading for all those interested in futures studies theory and its practical applications. As a fundamental publication of futures studies methods this book is also suitable for lecture support material for universities. The purpose of the book is to familiarize the reader with the idea of futures studies and the basic methods of futures as a scientific discipline. We hope that the readers will find this publication and its arguments a stimulating trigger, launching creative argumentation about our responsibility to imagine alternative futures. This book, "How Do We Explore Our Futures?", is an English edition based on the 3rd revised edition (2013) of the Finnish 1993 original "Miten tutkimme tulevaisuutta?". The book will be published in English as an answer to increasing international demand for Finnish original contributions to the fields of Futures Studies and Foresight