Suchergebnisse

The volatility of financial returns changes over time and, for the last thirty years, Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models have provided the principal means of analyzing, modeling and monitoring such changes. Taking into account that financial returns typically exhibit heavy tails - that is, extreme values can occur from time to time - Andrew Harvey's new book shows how a small but radical change in the way GARCH models are formulated leads to a resolution of many of the theoretical problems inherent in the statistical theory. The approach can also be applied to other aspects of volatility. The more general class of Dynamic Conditional Score models extends to robust modeling of outliers in the levels of time series and to the treatment of time-varying relationships. The statistical theory draws on basic principles of maximum likelihood estimation and, by doing so, leads to an elegant and unified treatment of nonlinear time-series modeling

This volume presents a collection of readings which give the reader an idea of the nature and scope of unobserved components (UC) models and the methods used to deal with them. The book is intended to give a self-contained presentation of the methods and applicative issues. Harvey has made major contributions to this field and provides substantial introductions throughout the book to form a unified view of the literature. - ;This book presents a collection of readings which give the reader an idea of the nature and scope of unobserved components (UC) models and the methods used to deal with th