Food and Agriculture in Ethiopia: Progress and Policy Challenges
In: The journal of development studies: JDS, Band 50, Heft 2, S. 343-344
ISSN: 0022-0388
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In: The journal of development studies: JDS, Band 50, Heft 2, S. 343-344
ISSN: 0022-0388
In: The journal of development studies, Band 50, Heft 2, S. 343-344
ISSN: 1743-9140
This paper provides a general overview of the current status and key challenges of the Ethiopian wheat value chain. Wheat is an important staple food crop in Ethiopia. Improving wheat production and productivity is therefore a key part of the agenda in the Ethiopian government's food security policy programs. Policy interventions that aim at improving wheat production or agricultural production for that matter, however, require interventions beyond the farm-at the whole wheat value chain. Both domestic production and import-the two key sources of wheat grain supply to the Ethiopian wheat value chain-have shown a substantial increase since the mid-1990s. Yet, a steady increase in domestic wheat consumption has resulted in rising wheat and wheat product prices over the past two decades. For instance, wheat grain, wheat flour as well as wheat bread prices have all more than doubled between 2000 and 2013. Using a qualitative survey of selected wheat value chain actors and a review of existing literature, this study provides an overview of the wheat value chain, institutional and marketing arrangements, and trader behaviour of wheat value chain actors in Ethiopia. The wheat value chain consists of multiple actors that include several smallholder farmers and the Ethiopian grain trade enterprise (EGTE) at the upstream and urban and rural consumers at the other end. The study stresses the need for formulation of market-enhancing policies, such as quality control and dispute settlement mechanisms as well as better access to market information, to improve wheat productivity as well as marketing efficiency.
BASE
Forecasting food production is important to identify possible shortages in supply and, thus, food security risks. Such forecasts may improve input allocation decisions that affect agribusiness and the input supply industry. This paper explains methods and data used to forecast acreage of four crops that are particularly important staple commodities in the world, namely wheat, corn, rice, and soybeans for major global producer countries. It focuses on forecasting acreage-one of the two major determinants of grain production-3 months before planting starts with publicly available data. To this end, we use data from the period 1991 to 2013 and perform an out-of-sample forecast for the year 2014. A particular characteristic of this study is that the respective acreage determinants for each country and each crop are identified and used for forecasting separately. This allows accounting for the heterogeneity in the countries' agricultural, political, and economic systems through a country-specific model specification. The performance of the resulting forecasting tool is validated with ex-post prediction of acreage against historical data.
BASE
In: American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Band 101, Heft 1, S. 1-16
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