Suchergebnisse

Exploratory scenarios for the power sector in Nigeria are analysed in this paper using possible pathways within the Nigerian context and then compared against the Government's power expansion plan in the short to medium term. They include two fossil-fuel (FF and CCGT) and two sustainable-development-driven scenarios (SD1 and SD2). The results from the FF scenarios indicate this is the preferred outcome if the aim is to expand electricity access at the lowest capital costs. However, the annual costs and environmental impacts increase significantly as a consequence. The SD1 scenario, characterised by increased penetration of renewables, leads to a reduction of a wide range of environmental impacts while increasing the annual costs slightly. The SD2 scenario, also with an increased share of renewables, is preferred if the aim is to reduce GHG emissions; however, this comes at an increased annual cost. Both the SD1 and SD2 scenarios also show significant increases in the capital investment compared to the Government's plans. These results can be used to help inform future policy in the Nigerian electricity sector by showing explicitly the range of possible trade-offs between environmental impacts and economic costs both in the short and long terms. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

The power sector in Nigeria is undergoing structural reforms aimed at improving and expanding the current grid generation capacity and distribution network. The Government has injected huge funds into this sector while also granting licences to private companies for the provision of electricity. It is also aiming to increase electricity generation capacity to 25,000 MW by 2020 from the current installed capacity of 6500 MW while also pledging to connect 75% of the population to the grid from the current 40% by 2025. This paper sets out to analyse the implications of the energy policy in Nigeria and presents the life cycle environmental and economic analysis of the current and future electricity sector. The results show that all the life cycle impacts and economic costs increase significantly over the time-period (2003-2030), but at different rates depending on the types of technologies deployed. Renewables such as large hydro and solar proposed by the Government have a potential to reduce the overall life cycle environmental impacts from the electricity mix, considering their lower environmental impacts compared to fossil-fuels. However, this requires a five-fold increase in grid investments from the current US$1.7 billion per year to US$9.40 billion by 2030. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.