On the timing of interventions to preserve hospital capacity: lessons to be learned from the Belgian SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in 2020
Using publicly available data on the number of new hospitalisations we use a newly developed statistical model to produce a phase portrait to monitor the epidemic allowing for assessing whether or not intervention measures are needed to keep hospital capacity under control. The phase portrait is called a cliquets' diagram, referring to the discrete alarm phases it points to. Using this cliquets' diagram we show that intervention measures were associated with an effective mitigation of a Summer resurgence but that too little too late was done to prevent a large autumn wave in Belgium. ; European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme - project EpiPose [101003688]; European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (ERC) [682540]
