Suchergebnisse

This study is designed to explore the role of technological advancement in agricultural sector in the context of economy of Pakistan. The data set are based on the period from 1972 to 2019. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing employed to identify the short run and long run relationships between the technological advancement in agricultural sector and gross domestic product. The Granger causality also applied to find out the direction of causal relationships. The ARDL cointegration results indicates that there is positive relationship between technological advancement in agricultural sector and gross domestic product in short run and long run. The Granger causality results also indicate that the GDP growth also Granger cause the agriculture technology. And stability tests show that the model CUSUM and CUSUM of squares indicate that models are valid. The results suggest that technological advancement in agricultural sector has positive impact on GDP in case of Pakistan economy. Technological advancement in agricultural sector strengthens the Pakistan's economy. There is need to pay more attention by the government administration to provide technological facilities in agricultural sector, properly and efficiently to get more benefits which ultimately enhance the agriculture growth and development of Pakistan's economy.

AbstractThis study traces the degree of integration and volatility spillover effect between the Pakistani and leading foreign stock markets by analyzing the Meteor shower hypothesis. Daily data are used from nine worldly equity markets (KSE 100, NIKKEI 225, HIS, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, DOW JONES, GADXI, FTSE 350 and DFMGI) for the period of 2005 to 2014. First, we used the whole data set and after that we split data set into two subsets, First subset of data contains the era of global financial crisis of 2008 from 2005 to 2009 and Second subset is after global financial crisis time period from 2010 to 2014 (The global crisis prevailed till end of 2009). By following the Hamao et al. (1990) technique the univariate GARCH type models are employed to explore the dynamic linkages between Pakistani and leading foreign stock markets. The results from whole data set illustrate that there is mixed co‐movements between leading foreign stock markets and Pakistani stock market. The results from both subsets provide an evidence that there is a unidirectional mean and volatility spillover effect from S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, DJI and DFMGI to KSE 100. Also we found bidirectional spillover effect between DFMGI and KSE 100 from both subsets of data. We concluded that there is only one indirect linkage through which may the information transmitted to KSE 100. This linkage is developed due to the co‐movement among KSE 100, DFMGI and NASDAQ 100 in crisis period. This integration between these markets may provide a sign of indirect linkage. It also exhibits the volatility in Pakistan stock market returns is instigated through direct effects as well as indirect effects. Our study brings important conclusions for financial institutions, portfolio managers, market players and academician to diagnose the nature and level of linkages between the financial markets.

The volatility spillover is broadly measured as the transmission of variability from one financial market to other markets. This study explores the spillover effect between the newly emerged index of the Pakistan stock exchange (PSX) and exchange rate by using the newly proposed alternative methodology by Ghouse et al. (2019) and GARCH model. Furthermore, the index under study is more concise in its composition than other readily used indices. The study finds shreds of evidence for the bidirectional spillover effect between PSX and exchange rate, which will be helpful for central policy makers and markets players in designing effective policy frameworks.
Keywords: ARDL; GARCH; spillover effect