Suchergebnisse

Resumen: Este artículo analiza las causas de la inflación en Argentina entre 2006 y 2011, y el rol jugado por la política monetaria en esta evolución. El marco conceptual utilizado enfatiza el tipo de cambio real y el precio relativo entre bienes transables y no transables; a diferencia de los más frecuentes análisis basados en agregados monetarios. La conclusión a la que se arriba, comparando la experiencia Argentina con la de otros países Latinoamericanos, es que la principal causa de la inflación fue que el Banco Central no indujo revaluaciones en la moneda durante los períodos expansivos que tendieron a apreciar el tipo de cambio real. Adicionalmente, se presenta evidencia empírica para fundamentar la relación (enfatizada en el marco conceptual) entre el tipo de cambio real y el precio relativo de los bienes transables y no transables para Argentina. Esta evidencia apunta a que la inflación experimentada desde 2006 fue principalmente en bienes no transables.

This paper quantitatively evaluates the effects of several unconventional monetary policies for small open economies. In particular, a New Keynesian model is extended to include a liquidity premium, deviations from uncovered interest rate parity, and a premium in the term structure of interest rates, allowing the central bank to choose, in addition to its policy rate, the size and composition of its balance sheet. The model is calibrated to the case of Chile. We find that policies affecting the liquidity channel can potentially have large effects, but these depend on expectations about the future policy rate. On the other hand, alternatives working through the term premium have smaller effects, but they are less dependent on the expected path of the reference rate. We also study the possibility of undoing the unconventional policy as a possible exit strategy, with results indicating that this alternative may induce a significant slowdown, particularly if it is anticipated. Finally, we also consider the alternative of driving down the policy rate to its lower bound and maintaining it there for a prolonged period. While this policy can also be greatly expansionary, particularly after contractionary shocks, credibility issues regarding the promise of keeping the rate low for some time can severely undermine these effects.

This paper evaluates from a welfare perspective three policy alternatives for dealing with Dutch disease problems originating from cyclical movements in commodity prices: fiscal rules for government expenditures, capital controls, and taxes on domestic lending. A DSGE model of a small open economy is developed, with a sectoral decomposition that features three distinctive characteristics: financial frictions, a learning-by-doing externality in the industrial sector, and a fraction of households being non-Ricardian (credit constrained). The model is calibrated using Chilean data. For each policy tool, optimal simple rules are analyzed from a welfare (Ramsey) perspective, describing how different households rank the several policy alternatives, and studying how each of the models features shapes the optimal policy design. A general conclusion of the analysis is that the included Dutch disease inefficiencies are of quantitatively limited relevance in analyzing the desirability of these policies from a welfare perspective.

Abstract: This paper evaluates from a welfare perspective three policy alternatives for dealing with Dutch disease problems originating from cyclical movements in commodity prices: fiscal rules for government expenditures, capital controls, and taxes on domestic lending. A DSGE model of a small open economy is developed, with a sectoral decomposition that features three distinctive characteristics: financial frictions, a learning-by-doing externality in the industrial sector, and a fraction of households being non-Ricardian (credit constrained). The model is calibrated using Chilean data. For each policy tool, optimal simple rules are analyzed from a welfare (Ramsey) perspective, describing how different households rank the several policy alternatives, and studying how each of the models features shapes the optimal policy design. A general conclusion of the analysis is that the included Dutch disease inefficiencies are of quantitatively limited relevance in analyzing the desirability of these policies from a welfare perspective.

Abstract: This paper presents a small open economy model to analyze the role of central bank liquidity management in implementing "unconventional" monetary policies within an inflation targeting framework. In particular, the paper explicitly models the facilities that the central bank uses to manage liquidity in the economy, which creates a role for the central bank balance sheet in equilibrium. This permits the analysis of two "unconventional" policies: sterilized exchange-rate interventions and expanding the list of eligible collaterals accepted at the liquidity facilities operated by the central bank. These policies have been recently implemented by several central banks: the former as a way to counteract persistent appreciations in the domestic currency, and the latter as a response to the recent global financial crisis in 2008. As a case study, the paper provides a detailed account of the Chilean experience with these alternative tools, as well as a quantitative evaluation of the effects of some of these policies

Abstract: We evaluate from a welfare perspective three policy alternatives frequently proposed to deal with Dutch-disease problems originated from cyclical movements in commodity prices. Namely, fiscal rules for government expenditures, capital controls, and taxes to domestic lending. To this end, we develop a DSGE model of a small open economy with a sectoral decomposition that features three distinctive characteristics: financial frictions, a learning-by-doing externality in the industrial sector, and a fraction of households being non-Ricardian (credit constrained). The first two features induce inefficient relocations after commodity shocks, while the later is relevant to study the role of fiscal rules. We calibrate the model using Chilean data, applying an impulse-response-matching approach. For each of the policy tools, we analyze optimal simple rules from a welfare (Ramsey) perspective, describing how different households rank the several policy alternatives, and studying how each of the models features shape the optimal policy design. A general conclusion of the analysis is that the included Dutch-disease inefficiencies are of limited quantitatively relevance in analyzing the desirability of these policies from a welfare perspective

Central banks that work under an inflation-targeting regime generally use an interest rate as the main instrument to implement monetary policy. The latter can be denominated conventional monetary policy. Central banks often deviate from this practice, however, and engage in other policies to deal with particular situations. As these alternatives depart from the usual practice, they are generally labeled "unconventional" policies. During the recent global financial crisis and recession of 2008–09, central banks around the world and in Latin America, in particular, responded to external shocks in a variety of ways. Canales-Kriljenko and others provide a precise description of how different Latin American central banks reacted to the U.S. financial crisis shock in 2008, with an emphasis on the heterogeneity in the use of unconventional monetary policy instruments. For example, while Colombia and Peru lowered reserve requirements in their banking systems, the Central Bank of Chile relaxed the collateral requirements for repurchase (repo) transactions. Also, Chile and Peru extended the repayment period in repo transactions.

Introducción: Los precios de las materias primas generalmente sufren cambios grandes y persistentes, con períodos de relativa estabilidad y tiempos de alta volatilidad. El precio del cobre no es una excepción a esta caracterización general, tal como puede apreciarse en el gráfico 1, donde se muestra el logaritmo del precio contado del cobre en frecuencia mensual. Dada esta caracterización, el objetivo de este trabajo es estudiar si la evolución del precio del cobre puede ser apropiadamente capturada por un modelo univariado de cambio de regímenes de Markov (es decir, un modelo en que los parámetros pueden cambiar en el tiempo y donde ese cambio está determinado por un proceso de Markov no observado), comparando estos modelos con otras alternativas de parámetros constantes. La idea básica es comprender en qué dimensiones estos modelos pueden mejorar el análisis que proveen los modelos más estándares, y en qué aspectos todavía hay espacio para mejoras.

Abstract: A large literature estimates the exchange-rate pass-through to prices (ERPT) using reducedform approaches. The results from these studies are an important input at Central Banks. We study the usefulness of these empirical measures for actual monetary policy analysis and decision making, emphasizing two main shortcomings that arise naturally from a general equilibrium perspective. First, while the empirical literature computes a single ERPT measure, in a general equilibrium model the evolution of the exchange rate and prices will differ depending on the shock hitting the economy. Accordingly, we distinguish between conditional and unconditional ERPT measures, showing that they can lead to very different interpretations. Second, in a general equilibrium model the ERPT crucially depends on the expected behavior of monetary policy; although the empirical literature cannot account for this. As a result, results from this literature might provide a misleading guide for monetary policy. We highlight the quantitative relevance of these with a DSGE model of a small and open economy with sectoral distinctions, real and nominal rigidities, and a variety of driving forces; estimated using Chilean data.

Abstract: We use stock returns to grade presidential economic performance. In efficient markets, asset prices are unique in that they impound the long term effects of changes in the environment, including government policy. To purge national returns of state-of-the-world conditions that do not result from local events, we introduce a global twin portfolio and a regional return. The twin portfolio for a country reports the return of a combination of world stocks that each month has the same industrial composition as that one country's stock index. These benchmark external conditions are most volatile: they vary between a 295% appreciation (or tailwind under some interpretations) and a 30% reduction (or headwind) in asset prices over extreme four-year presidencies in our sample. We interpret the gap of national performance over these counterfactual returns as a proxy for the quality of domestic policies during a given presidency, as seen from the standpoint of equity investors. We apply this approach to seven Latin American countries from 1980 until 2011. From this perspective, Colombia, Peru and Chile stand out as the countries that have implemented the best long run policies over the sample. In addition, we provide a grading of relative presidential performance.

We use more than a century of Argentine and Mexican data to estimate the structural parameters of a small-open-economy real-business-cycle model driven by nonstationary productivity shocks. We find that the RBC model does a poor job of explaining business cycles in emerging countries. We then estimate an augmented model that incorporates shocks to the country premium and financial frictions. We find that the estimated financial-friction model provides a remarkably good account of business cycles in emerging markets and, importantly, assigns a negligible role to nonstationary productivity shocks. (JEL E13, E32, E44, F43, O11, O16)

"The global financial crisis that started in 2008 dramatically changed the analysis and implementation of monetary policy worldwide. Central banks were at the center of the stage during that time, implementing both conventional and unconventional policies. Not only were monetary policy rates drastically reduced, but also diverse policy measures were implemented: purchases of a wide range of financial assets, lending to financial institutions, intervening exchange rate markets and paying interest on reserves. Given that these policies challenged the conventional view embedded in the predominant monetary policy model, within which central banks control only a short-term interest rate, it is most important to understand how these policies have worked, and to what extent they were successful."

Introducción: La crisis financiera global del 2008 en adelante modificó radicalmente la forma de analizar y de hacer política monetaria en todo el mundo. Los bancos centrales estuvieron al centro del escenario mientras duró la crisis, tomando medidas convencionales y no convencionales. No solo aplicaron drásticas rebajas a la tasa de política monetaria (TPM): también implementaron diversas medidas de política, tales como la compra de una amplia gama de activos financieros, préstamos a instituciones financieras, intervenciones en el mercado cambiario y pago de intereses sobre las reservas, entre otros2. Teniendo en cuenta que estas políticas desafiaban la visión convencional, integrada en el modelo de política monetaria imperante en el que el banco central tiene control únicamente sobre una tasa de interés de corto plazo, es de suma importancia comprender cómo operaron estas políticas, y si lograron el objetivo. Este artículo tiene por objetivo analizar qué papel cumplieron las medidas de política monetaria en la economía chilena entre los años 2008 y 2010, en particular aquellas que se adoptaron para hacer frente a una situación de límite cero. En respuesta a la crisis financiera global, el Banco Central implementó políticas variadas, entre los que hubo programas para entregar liquidez ante el colapso de Lehman Brothers, cambios en las garantías utilizables en las operaciones con el Banco Central, una drástica reducción de 775 puntos base (pb) a la tasa de política hasta su límite inferior de 50 pb y, lo más notorio, la introducción de facilidades de liquidez a plazo (la FLAP) como una forma de comprometerse a mantener la TPM en su límite inferior por un período extenso. Esta última medida es lo que nos interesa en este estudio.