Ponencia presentada en: VIII Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Salamanca entre el 25 y el 28 de septiembre de 2012. ; Recently, the demand of gridded wind datasets over sea areas has increased due to the ongoing development of offshore wind farms. Currently available reanalysis datasets do not have enough resolution to deal with complex coastlines and coastal topography, and these do interact with the winds and meteorological systems well into the open sea. Here we present the main characteristics of a high resolution wind climatology that has been produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting model to downscale the ERA-INTERIM reanalysis. The simulations were carried out in a domain covering the Mediterranean basin and most of Europe, and thus areas with different wind regimes. The model has been kept close to the driving reanalysis by restarting it daily, as this running mode provided better results than nudging techniques. Results show that WRF is able to produce realistic offshore wind climatologies, probabilistic wind distributions and annual cycle. It also reproduces well-known regional winds remarkably well. ; This paper is a contribution to the financed projects by the Spanish government CORWES (CGL2010-22158-C02-01), WRF4G (CGL2010-22158-C02-01), EXTREMBLES (CGL2010-21869), C3E (200800050084091), iMar21 (CTM201015009) and MARUCA (E17/08), and was partially funded by projects 'MAREN' (Atlantic Area Transnational Programme) and 'CoCoNet' (FP7-OCEAN-2011).
Limited area models (LAMs) are widely used tools to downscale the wind speed forecasts issued by general circulation models. However, only a few studies have systematically analyzed the value added by the LAMs to the coarser-resolution-model wind. The goal of the present work is to investigate how added value depends on the resolution of the driving global model. With this aim, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model was used to downscale three different global datasets (GFS, ERA-Interim, and NCEP?NCAR) to a 9-km-resolution grid for a 1-yr period. Model results were compared with a large set of surface observations, including land station and offshore buoy data. Substantial biases were found at this resolution over mountainous terrain, and a slight modification to the subgrid orographic drag parameterization was introduced to alleviate the problem. It was found that, at this resolution, WRF is able to produce significant added value with respect to the NCEP?NCAR reanalysis and ERA-Interim but only a small amount of added value with respect to GFS forecasts. Results suggest that, as model resolution increases, traditional skill scores tend to saturate. Thus, adding value to high-resolution global models becomes significantly more difficult. ; The authors thank Puertos del Estado (Spanish National Ports and Harbour Authority) and AEMET (Spanish Meteorological Agency) for providing buoy and land observational records. This work was partly supported by the projects EXTREMBLES (CGL2010-21869) and CORWES (GL2010-22158-C02-01), funded by the Spanish R&D program. The WRF simulations performed in this study were managed by WRF4G, which is an open-source tool funded by the Spanish government and cofunded by the European Regional Development Fund under Grant CGL2011-28864.
BACKGROUND: El Niño and its effect on local meteorological conditions potentially influences interannual variability in dengue transmission in southern coastal Ecuador. El Oro province is a key dengue surveillance site, due to the high burden of dengue, seasonal transmission, co-circulation of all four dengue serotypes, and the recent introduction of chikungunya and Zika. In this study, we used climate forecasts to predict the evolution of the 2016 dengue season in the city of Machala, following one of the strongest El Niño events on record. METHODS: We incorporated precipitation, minimum temperature, and Niño3·4 index forecasts in a Bayesian hierarchical mixed model to predict dengue incidence. The model was initiated on Jan 1, 2016, producing monthly dengue forecasts until November, 2016. We accounted for misreporting of dengue due to the introduction of chikungunya in 2015, by using active surveillance data to correct reported dengue case data from passive surveillance records. We then evaluated the forecast retrospectively with available epidemiological information. FINDINGS: The predictions correctly forecast an early peak in dengue incidence in March, 2016, with a 90% chance of exceeding the mean dengue incidence for the previous 5 years. Accounting for the proportion of chikungunya cases that had been incorrectly recorded as dengue in 2015 improved the prediction of the magnitude of dengue incidence in 2016. INTERPRETATION: This dengue prediction framework, which uses seasonal climate and El Niño forecasts, allows a prediction to be made at the start of the year for the entire dengue season. Combining active surveillance data with routine dengue reports improved not only model fit and performance, but also the accuracy of benchmark estimates based on historical seasonal averages. This study advances the state-of-the-art of climate services for the health sector, by showing the potential value of incorporating climate information in the public health decision-making process in Ecuador. FUNDING: European Union FP7, Royal Society, and National Science Foundation.
his work presents a framework, WRF4G, to manage the experiment workflow of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modelling system. WRF4G provides a flexible design, execution and monitoring for a general class of scientific experiments. It has been designed with the aim of facilitating the management and reproducibility of complex experiments. Furthermore, the concepts behind the design of this framework can be straightforwardly extended to other models ; This work has been supported by the Spanish National R&D Plan under projects WRF4G (CGL2011-28864, co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund –ERDF–) and CORWES (CGL2010-22158-C02-01) and the IS-ENES2 project from the 7FP of the European Commission (grant agreement no. 312979). C. Blanco acknowledges financial support 5 from programa de Personal Investigador en Formación Predoctoral from Universidad de Cantabria, co-funded by the regional government of Cantabria. The authors are thankful to the developers of third party software (e.g. GridWay, WRFV3, python and NetCDF), which was intensively used in this work.
The European CORDEX (EURO-CORDEX) initiative is a large voluntary effort that seeks to advance regional climate and Earth system science in Europe. As part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) - Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), it shares the broader goals of providing a model evaluation and climate projection framework and improving communication with both the General Circulation Model (GCM) and climate data user communities. EURO-CORDEX oversees the design and coordination of ongoing ensembles of regional climate projections of unprecedented size and resolution (0.11° EUR-11 and 0.44° EUR-44 domains). Additionally, the inclusion of empirical-statistical downscaling allows investigation of much larger multi-model ensembles. These complementary approaches provide a foundation for scientific studies within the climate research community and others. The value of the EURO-CORDEX ensemble is shown via numerous peer-reviewed studies and its use in the development of climate services. Evaluations of the EUR-44 and EUR-11 ensembles also show the benefits of higher resolution. However, significant challenges remain. To further advance scientific understanding, two flagship pilot studies (FPS) were initiated. The first investigates local-regional phenomena at convection-permitting scales over central Europe and the Mediterranean in collaboration with the Med-CORDEX community. The second investigates the impacts of land cover changes on European climate across spatial and temporal scales. Over the coming years, the EURO-CORDEX community looks forward to closer collaboration with other communities, new advances, supporting international initiatives such as the IPCC reports, and continuing to provide the basis for research on regional climate impacts and adaptation in Europe. ; We acknowledge all participating institutions for their voluntary effort and contribution to EURO-CORDEX. We also thank the developers and maintainers of the ESGF-nodes who make it possible to store and distribute EURO-CORDEX data. S.S. acknowledges the support of NOTUR/NORSTORE projects NN9280K/NS9001K and the Research Council of Norway and its basic institute support of the strategic project on Climate Services. E.K. acknowledges the support of the Greek Research & Technology Network (GRNET) for provision of technical support and facilities (HPC-ARIS). L.S. and I.G. acknowledge the support of Croatian Science Foundation project CARE (2831) and Ministry of Environment and Energy project TF/HR/P3-M1-O1-0101 (www.prilagodba-klimi.hr). J. F. acknowledges support from the Spanish R+D Programme through grant INSIGNIA (CGL2016-79210-R), co-funded by ERDF/FEDER, and the Altamira Supercomputer at Instituto de Física de Cantabria (IFCA-CSIC), member of the Spanish Supercomputing Network. P.T. acknowledges support from the Belgian Science Policy (BELSPO) within the CORDEX.be (BR/143/A2) project, and the VSC (Flemish Supercomputer Center), funded by the Research Foundation - Flanders (FWO) and the Flemish Government – department EWI.M.A.G. acknowledges support from the Spanish R+D Programme through grants CGL2013-47261-R and CGL2017-89583-R, co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund. RF acknowledges support provided by ICHEC (Irish Centre for High End Computing) and the Irish Environmental Protection Agency. K.G. and S.K. gratefully acknowledge the computing time granted through JARA-HPC on the supercomputers JUROPA and JURECA at Forschungszentrum Jülich. M.B. and T.H. acknowledge support by The Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports from the Large Infrastructures for Research, Experimental Development and Innovations project "IT4Innovations National Supercomputing Center – LM2015070" and the INTER-EXCELLENCE program LTT17007, and support by Charles University from the PROGRES Q16 program. We acknowledge the approval and support of the two Flagship Pilot Studies (the FPS on Convective phenomena at high resolution over Europe and the Mediterranean and the FPS on Land Use and Climate Across Scales) by WRCP CORDEX. We thank Merja Tölle for providing simulation CCLM5-0-9-JLU as contribution to the CORDEX-FPS "Convective phenomena at high resolution over Europe and the Mediterranean". D. M., M.P., and H.T. gratefully acknowledge the support received via the projects HighEnd:Extremes, SPIRIT, and reclip:convex, funded by the Austrian Climate Research Programme (ACRP) of the Klima- und Energiefonds (nos. B368608, B960272, and B769999, respectively), as well as the Jülich Supercomputing Centre (JSC) for compute time on JURECA through the grant JJSC39 and the Vienna Scientific Cluster (VSC) through the grants 70992 and 71193
