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Abstract. Numerical modelling has become an essential component of today's coastal planning, decision support and risk assessment. High-resolution modelling offers an extensive range of capabilities regarding simulated conditions, works and practices and provides with a wide array of data regarding nearshore wave dynamics and hydrodynamics. In the present work, the open-source TELEMAC suite and the commercial software MIKE21 are applied to selected coastal areas of South Italy. Applications follow a scenario-based approach in order to study representative wave conditions in the coastal field; the models' results are intercompared in order to test both their performance and capabilities and are further evaluated on the basis of their operational use for coastal planning and design. A multiparametric approach for the rapid assessment of wave conditions in coastal areas is also presented and implemented in areas of the same region. The overall approach is deemed to provide useful insights on the tested models and the use of numerical models – in general – in the above context, especially considering that the design of harbours, coastal protection works and management practices in the coastal zone is based on scenario-based approaches as well.

Abstract. The present work describes an operational strategy for the development of a multiscale modeling system, based on a multiple-nesting approach and open-source numerical models. The strategy was applied and validated for the Gulf of Taranto in southern Italy, scaling large-scale oceanographic model results to high-resolution coupled wave–3-D hydrodynamics simulations for the area of Mar Grande in the Taranto Sea. The spatial and temporal high-resolution simulations were performed using the open-source TELEMAC suite, forced by wind data from the COSMO-ME database, boundary wave spectra from the RON buoy at Crotone and results from the Southern Adriatic Northern Ionian coastal Forecasting System (SANIFS) regarding sea levels and current fields. Model validation was carried out using data collected in the Mar Grande basin from a fixed monitoring station and during an oceanographic campaign in October 2014. The overall agreement between measurements and model results in terms of waves, sea levels, surface currents, circulation patterns and vertical velocity profiles is deemed to be satisfactory, and the methodology followed in the process can constitute a useful tool for both research and operational applications in the same field and as support of decisions for management and design of infrastructures.

The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP), an initiative of the Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) and the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI), aims to demonstrate how countries can transform their energy systems by 2050 in order to achieve a low-carbon economy and significantly reduce the global risk of catastrophic climate change. Built upon a rigorous accounting of national circumstances, the DDPP defines transparent pathways supporting the decarbonization of energy systems while respecting the specifics of national political economy and the fulfillment of domestic development priorities. The project comprises 16 Country Research Teams, composed of leading research institutions from countries representing about 70% of global GHG emissions and at very different stages of development. These 16 countries are: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States. "Pathways to Deep Carbonization in Italy" contributes to the national debate on climate-change mitigation, and the importance of deep decarbonization, by examining three alternative pathways that could reduce Italian CO2 emissions by at least 40% in 2030 and 80% in 2050, compared to 1990. It analyzes the challenges the Italian energy system faces, and possible future technological developments that will need to be pursued.

International audience ; Decarbonisation of energy systems requires deep structural change. The purpose of this research was to analyse the rates of change taking place in the energy systems of each Member State of the European Union (EU), and the EU in aggregate, in the light of the EU's climate change mitigation objectives. Trends on indicators such as sectoral activity levels and composition, energy intensity, and carbon intensity of energy were compared with decadal benchmarks derived from deep decarbonisation scenarios. The methodology applied provides a useful and informative approach to tracking decarbonisation of energy systems. The results show that while the EU has made significant progress in decarbonising its energy system. On a number of indicators assessed the results show that a significant acceleration from historical levels is required in order to reach the rates of change seen on the future benchmarks for deep decarbonisation. The methodology applied provides an example of how the research community and international organisations could complement the transparency mechanism developed by the Paris Agreement on climate change, to improve understanding of progress toward low-carbon energy systems.

International audience Decarbonisation of energy systems requires deep structural change. The purpose of this research was to analyse the rates of change taking place in the energy systems of each Member State of the European Union (EU), and the EU in aggregate, in the light of the EU's climate change mitigation objectives. Trends on indicators such as sectoral activity levels and composition, energy intensity, and carbon intensity of energy were compared with decadal benchmarks derived from deep decarbonisation scenarios. The methodology applied provides a useful and informative approach to tracking decarbonisation of energy systems. The results show that while the EU has made significant progress in decarbonising its energy system. On a number of indicators assessed the results show that a significant acceleration from historical levels is required in order to reach the rates of change seen on the future benchmarks for deep decarbonisation. The methodology applied provides an example of how the research community and international organisations could complement the transparency mechanism developed by the Paris Agreement on climate change, to improve understanding of progress toward low-carbon energy systems.

International audience ; Decarbonisation of energy systems requires deep structural change. The purpose of this research was to analyse the rates of change taking place in the energy systems of each Member State of the European Union (EU), and the EU in aggregate, in the light of the EU's climate change mitigation objectives. Trends on indicators such as sectoral activity levels and composition, energy intensity, and carbon intensity of energy were compared with decadal benchmarks derived from deep decarbonisation scenarios. The methodology applied provides a useful and informative approach to tracking decarbonisation of energy systems. The results show that while the EU has made significant progress in decarbonising its energy system. On a number of indicators assessed the results show that a significant acceleration from historical levels is required in order to reach the rates of change seen on the future benchmarks for deep decarbonisation. The methodology applied provides an example of how the research community and international organisations could complement the transparency mechanism developed by the Paris Agreement on climate change, to improve understanding of progress toward low-carbon energy systems.

Les 16 équipes de chercheurs mobilisées dans le cadre du projet ont élaboré et approfondi leurs trajectoires de décarbonation par rapport au rapport 2014, affinant leurs résultats et conclusions par l'intermédiaire de plusieurs scénarios définissant différentes orientations possibles de décarbonation pour un même pays.À l'échelle globale, le rapport montre que la décarbonation profonde des économies actuellement les plus émettrices est techniquement faisable, tout en prenant en compte les projections attendues de croissance démographique et économique. D'ores et déjà, ces tendances de décarbonation apparaissent compatibles avec l'objectif de 2°C maximum de réchauffement à l'horizon 2100 ; et des potentiels de réduction d'émissions plus drastiques encore ont été identifiés par les différentes équipes. Ces conclusions pourront en outre, à l'avenir, être complétées par d'autres pays et par la prise en compte de sources d'émissions provenant de sources non analysées par le DDPP (affectation des terres, procédés industriels, etc.).Le rapport 2015 insiste particulièrement sur la compatibilité des objectifs de décarbonation et de développement économique et social. Décarboner permet en effet en premier lieu d'éviter les effets délétères du changement climatique, et s'inscrit en parallèle dans une stratégie d'amélioration significative de services essentiels comme l'accès à l'énergie. Les stratégies de décarbonation profonde peuvent contribuer au développement durable des pays.Enfin, les investissements nécessaires à la décarbonation profonde, de l'ordre de 0,8% du PIB en 2020 (1,3 % en 2050), ne représentent pas un surcoût majeur par rapport aux investissements nécessaires en l'absence de politiques climatiques. De plus, sous réserve de signaux adéquats sur le long terme, la réorientation des investissements vers les technologies bas carbone ouvrent d'importantes perspectives commerciales.Dans le cadre de la COP21, où se négocie ces jours-ci un accord pour un nouveau régime climatique à partir de 2020, les stratégies ...

Les 16 équipes de chercheurs mobilisées dans le cadre du projet ont élaboré et approfondi leurs trajectoires de décarbonation par rapport au rapport 2014, affinant leurs résultats et conclusions par l'intermédiaire de plusieurs scénarios définissant différentes orientations possibles de décarbonation pour un même pays.À l'échelle globale, le rapport montre que la décarbonation profonde des économies actuellement les plus émettrices est techniquement faisable, tout en prenant en compte les projections attendues de croissance démographique et économique. D'ores et déjà, ces tendances de décarbonation apparaissent compatibles avec l'objectif de 2°C maximum de réchauffement à l'horizon 2100 ; et des potentiels de réduction d'émissions plus drastiques encore ont été identifiés par les différentes équipes. Ces conclusions pourront en outre, à l'avenir, être complétées par d'autres pays et par la prise en compte de sources d'émissions provenant de sources non analysées par le DDPP (affectation des terres, procédés industriels, etc.).Le rapport 2015 insiste particulièrement sur la compatibilité des objectifs de décarbonation et de développement économique et social. Décarboner permet en effet en premier lieu d'éviter les effets délétères du changement climatique, et s'inscrit en parallèle dans une stratégie d'amélioration significative de services essentiels comme l'accès à l'énergie. Les stratégies de décarbonation profonde peuvent contribuer au développement durable des pays.Enfin, les investissements nécessaires à la décarbonation profonde, de l'ordre de 0,8% du PIB en 2020 (1,3 % en 2050), ne représentent pas un surcoût majeur par rapport aux investissements nécessaires en l'absence de politiques climatiques. De plus, sous réserve de signaux adéquats sur le long terme, la réorientation des investissements vers les technologies bas carbone ouvrent d'importantes perspectives commerciales.Dans le cadre de la COP21, où se négocie ces jours-ci un accord pour un nouveau régime climatique à partir de 2020, les stratégies de décarbonation sont indispensables pour informer les feuilles de route portant sur les choix de long terme, évitant ainsi des situations de blocage (lock-in), notamment technologiques, pouvant in fine freiner l'action climatique et en retarder ses effets.