Suchergebnisse

This paper attempts to extend the investigation of geographic space preferences, focussing particularly on their development and their change from childhood to adulthood, and on the flows of information from which such images are formed. The data used is from Lagos and Western Nigeria. First, the area, the participants, and the questionnaire are explained. Then the space preferences of the area (from five locations) for four age groups from thirteen to twenty-three are described, and the differences between the groups are mapped. The changes over time in these space preferences are discussed, and linked to ideas on the flows of information which help form perception surfaces. The mass media, migration, travel experience, and family membership are discussed. The paper concludes with some hypotheses on the nature of space-learning.

Risk is at the centre of many policy decisions in companies, governments and other institutions. The risk of road fatalities concerns local governments in planning countermeasures, the risk and severity of counterparty default concerns bank risk managers daily and the risk of infection has actuarial and epidemiological consequences. However, risk cannot be observed directly and it usually varies over time. We introduce a general multivariate time series model for the analysis of risk based on latent processes for the exposure to an event, the risk of that event occurring and the severity of the event. Linear state space methods can be used for the statistical treatment of the model. The new framework is illustrated for time series of insurance claims, credit card purchases and road safety. It is shown that the general methodology can be effectively used in the assessment of risk. © 2008 Royal Statistical Society.