This working paper details in 3 sections (i) the data collection and treatment that were necessary to apply IMACLIM-P to a 28-country European Union (EU); (ii) the particulars of a version of IMACLIMP dedicated to a prospective outlook on the penetration of electric passenger cars in the EU, including how results of the PAN-EU TIMES model of energy systems can be imported in IMACLIMP, together with the complete set of equations of the model; (iii) model implementation.
This working paper details in 3 sections (i) the data collection and treatment that were necessary to apply IMACLIM-P to a 28-country European Union (EU); (ii) the particulars of a version of IMACLIMP dedicated to a prospective outlook on the penetration of electric passenger cars in the EU, including how results of the PAN-EU TIMES model of energy systems can be imported in IMACLIMP, together with the complete set of equations of the model; (iii) model implementation.
This working paper details in 3 sections (i) the data collection and treatment that were necessary to apply IMACLIM-P to a 28-country European Union (EU); (ii) the particulars of a version of IMACLIMP dedicated to a prospective outlook on the penetration of electric passenger cars in the EU, including how results of the PAN-EU TIMES model of energy systems can be imported in IMACLIMP, together with the complete set of equations of the model; (iii) model implementation.
This working paper details in 3 sections (i) the data collection and treatment that were necessary to apply IMACLIM-P to a 28-country European Union (EU); (ii) the particulars of a version of IMACLIMP dedicated to a prospective outlook on the penetration of electric passenger cars in the EU, including how results of the PAN-EU TIMES model of energy systems can be imported in IMACLIMP, together with the complete set of equations of the model; (iii) model implementation.
This working paper details in 3 sections (i) the data collection and treatment that were necessary to apply IMACLIM-P to a 28-country European Union (EU); (ii) the particulars of a version of IMACLIMP dedicated to a prospective outlook on the penetration of electric passenger cars in the EU, including how results of the PAN-EU TIMES model of energy systems can be imported in IMACLIMP, together with the complete set of equations of the model; (iii) model implementation.
Dominique Finon Claude Henry Jean-Christophe Pereau Henry Tulkens ; This PhD thesis is devoted to the evaluation of the macro-economic costs of national and global climate policies. It is primarily built on an innovative articulation of the energy and macro-economic forecasting, insisting on the precise reproduction of the elasticities revealed by the techno-economic modeling of energy systems in a macro-economic framework. It also questions the analytical results putting in doubt the hypothesis of a double dividend, by demonstrating that the ultimate deflationist or inflationist nature of an "ecofiscal" reform depends on the pre-existing production and consumption structures, and on their reactivity to the price-signal. At last, it underlines the predominant role of induced technical change and its particulars—crowding-out of general productivity investment, tempered by possible spillovers from the energy-oriented technical progress—on obtaining a second dividend. ; Les travaux présentés dans cette thèse portent sur l'évaluation des coûts macro-économiques de politiques climatiques nationales et mondiales. Ils reposent sur une mise en relation innovante des prospectives énergétique et macroéconomique, dont l'objectif est d'assurer la représentation fidèle, dans la modélisation macroéconomique, des élasticités du système énergétique mises en lumière par l'analyse technico-économique. Ils opèrent aussi un questionnement critique des études analytiques ayant conclu à l'improbabilité d'un dividende économique net de réformes fiscales environnementales, en démontrant que le signe ultime de l'effet prix général d'une réforme « écofiscale » est dépendant des structures de production et de consommation préexistant à la réforme, ainsi que de leur réactivité au signal-prix. Ils soulignent enfin le rôle prépondérant du changement technique induit et de ses modalités—éviction de l'investissement de productivité générale éventuellement corrigée par une diffusion du progrès technique spécifique—sur l'obtention d'un second ...
Dominique Finon Claude Henry Jean-Christophe Pereau Henry Tulkens ; This PhD thesis is devoted to the evaluation of the macro-economic costs of national and global climate policies. It is primarily built on an innovative articulation of the energy and macro-economic forecasting, insisting on the precise reproduction of the elasticities revealed by the techno-economic modeling of energy systems in a macro-economic framework. It also questions the analytical results putting in doubt the hypothesis of a double dividend, by demonstrating that the ultimate deflationist or inflationist nature of an "ecofiscal" reform depends on the pre-existing production and consumption structures, and on their reactivity to the price-signal. At last, it underlines the predominant role of induced technical change and its particulars—crowding-out of general productivity investment, tempered by possible spillovers from the energy-oriented technical progress—on obtaining a second dividend. ; Les travaux présentés dans cette thèse portent sur l'évaluation des coûts macro-économiques de politiques climatiques nationales et mondiales. Ils reposent sur une mise en relation innovante des prospectives énergétique et macroéconomique, dont l'objectif est d'assurer la représentation fidèle, dans la modélisation macroéconomique, des élasticités du système énergétique mises en lumière par l'analyse technico-économique. Ils opèrent aussi un questionnement critique des études analytiques ayant conclu à l'improbabilité d'un dividende économique net de réformes fiscales environnementales, en démontrant que le signe ultime de l'effet prix général d'une réforme « écofiscale » est dépendant des structures de production et de consommation préexistant à la réforme, ainsi que de leur réactivité au signal-prix. Ils soulignent enfin le rôle prépondérant du changement technique induit et de ses modalités—éviction de l'investissement de productivité générale éventuellement corrigée par une diffusion du progrès technique spécifique—sur l'obtention d'un second dividende.
Dominique Finon Claude Henry Jean-Christophe Pereau Henry Tulkens ; This PhD thesis is devoted to the evaluation of the macro-economic costs of national and global climate policies. It is primarily built on an innovative articulation of the energy and macro-economic forecasting, insisting on the precise reproduction of the elasticities revealed by the techno-economic modeling of energy systems in a macro-economic framework. It also questions the analytical results putting in doubt the hypothesis of a double dividend, by demonstrating that the ultimate deflationist or inflationist nature of an "ecofiscal" reform depends on the pre-existing production and consumption structures, and on their reactivity to the price-signal. At last, it underlines the predominant role of induced technical change and its particulars—crowding-out of general productivity investment, tempered by possible spillovers from the energy-oriented technical progress—on obtaining a second dividend. ; Les travaux présentés dans cette thèse portent sur l'évaluation des coûts macro-économiques de politiques climatiques nationales et mondiales. Ils reposent sur une mise en relation innovante des prospectives énergétique et macroéconomique, dont l'objectif est d'assurer la représentation fidèle, dans la modélisation macroéconomique, des élasticités du système énergétique mises en lumière par l'analyse technico-économique. Ils opèrent aussi un questionnement critique des études analytiques ayant conclu à l'improbabilité d'un dividende économique net de réformes fiscales environnementales, en démontrant que le signe ultime de l'effet prix général d'une réforme « écofiscale » est dépendant des structures de production et de consommation préexistant à la réforme, ainsi que de leur réactivité au signal-prix. Ils soulignent enfin le rôle prépondérant du changement technique induit et de ses modalités—éviction de l'investissement de productivité générale éventuellement corrigée par une diffusion du progrès technique spécifique—sur l'obtention d'un second dividende.
Dominique Finon Claude Henry Jean-Christophe Pereau Henry Tulkens ; This PhD thesis is devoted to the evaluation of the macro-economic costs of national and global climate policies. It is primarily built on an innovative articulation of the energy and macro-economic forecasting, insisting on the precise reproduction of the elasticities revealed by the techno-economic modeling of energy systems in a macro-economic framework. It also questions the analytical results putting in doubt the hypothesis of a double dividend, by demonstrating that the ultimate deflationist or inflationist nature of an "ecofiscal" reform depends on the pre-existing production and consumption structures, and on their reactivity to the price-signal. At last, it underlines the predominant role of induced technical change and its particulars—crowding-out of general productivity investment, tempered by possible spillovers from the energy-oriented technical progress—on obtaining a second dividend. ; Les travaux présentés dans cette thèse portent sur l'évaluation des coûts macro-économiques de politiques climatiques nationales et mondiales. Ils reposent sur une mise en relation innovante des prospectives énergétique et macroéconomique, dont l'objectif est d'assurer la représentation fidèle, dans la modélisation macroéconomique, des élasticités du système énergétique mises en lumière par l'analyse technico-économique. Ils opèrent aussi un questionnement critique des études analytiques ayant conclu à l'improbabilité d'un dividende économique net de réformes fiscales environnementales, en démontrant que le signe ultime de l'effet prix général d'une réforme « écofiscale » est dépendant des structures de production et de consommation préexistant à la réforme, ainsi que de leur réactivité au signal-prix. Ils soulignent enfin le rôle prépondérant du changement technique induit et de ses modalités—éviction de l'investissement de productivité générale éventuellement corrigée par une diffusion du progrès technique spécifique—sur l'obtention d'un second dividende.
International audience ; This research investigates if the stringent 2020 and 2050 overarching CO2 mitigation objectives set out by the European Union dominate its 2010 to 2020 targets specific to the transportation arena, specifically its biofuel penetration objectives and gram CO2 per kilometre emission caps. Using a dynamic recursive general equilibrium model, IMACLIM-R, we demonstrate that these overarching targets do not dominate the interim transportation targets when the carbon policy triggering compliance with the mitigation objectives boils down to the theoretical least-cost option of uniform carbon pricing. Ground transportation is confirmed as quite insensitive to high carbon prices, even when such prices are applied over a long term. It is tempting to conclude that pursuing the mitigation objectives specific to transportation will impose unnecessary costs. However, because of the second best conditions prevailing in actual economies, and of the risk of lock-in in carbon intensive trajectories, we conclude with the urgent need for some ambitious transport-specific policy design research agenda.
International audience ; This research investigates if the stringent 2020 and 2050 overarching CO2 mitigation objectives set out by the European Union dominate its 2010 to 2020 targets specific to the transportation arena, specifically its biofuel penetration objectives and gram CO2 per kilometre emission caps. Using a dynamic recursive general equilibrium model, IMACLIM-R, we demonstrate that these overarching targets do not dominate the interim transportation targets when the carbon policy triggering compliance with the mitigation objectives boils down to the theoretical least-cost option of uniform carbon pricing. Ground transportation is confirmed as quite insensitive to high carbon prices, even when such prices are applied over a long term. It is tempting to conclude that pursuing the mitigation objectives specific to transportation will impose unnecessary costs. However, because of the second best conditions prevailing in actual economies, and of the risk of lock-in in carbon intensive trajectories, we conclude with the urgent need for some ambitious transport-specific policy design research agenda.
International audience ; This research investigates if the stringent 2020 and 2050 overarching CO2 mitigation objectives set out by the European Union dominate its 2010 to 2020 targets specific to the transportation arena, specifically its biofuel penetration objectives and gram CO2 per kilometre emission caps. Using a dynamic recursive general equilibrium model, IMACLIM-R, we demonstrate that these overarching targets do not dominate the interim transportation targets when the carbon policy triggering compliance with the mitigation objectives boils down to the theoretical least-cost option of uniform carbon pricing. Ground transportation is confirmed as quite insensitive to high carbon prices, even when such prices are applied over a long term. It is tempting to conclude that pursuing the mitigation objectives specific to transportation will impose unnecessary costs. However, because of the second best conditions prevailing in actual economies, and of the risk of lock-in in carbon intensive trajectories, we conclude with the urgent need for some ambitious transport-specific policy design research agenda.
International audience ; This research investigates if the stringent 2020 and 2050 overarching CO2 mitigation objectives set out by the European Union dominate its 2010 to 2020 targets specific to the transportation arena, specifically its biofuel penetration objectives and gram CO2 per kilometre emission caps. Using a dynamic recursive general equilibrium model, IMACLIM-R, we demonstrate that these overarching targets do not dominate the interim transportation targets when the carbon policy triggering compliance with the mitigation objectives boils down to the theoretical least-cost option of uniform carbon pricing. Ground transportation is confirmed as quite insensitive to high carbon prices, even when such prices are applied over a long term. It is tempting to conclude that pursuing the mitigation objectives specific to transportation will impose unnecessary costs. However, because of the second best conditions prevailing in actual economies, and of the risk of lock-in in carbon intensive trajectories, we conclude with the urgent need for some ambitious transport-specific policy design research agenda.
International audience ; This research investigates if the stringent 2020 and 2050 overarching CO2 mitigation objectives set out by the European Union dominate its 2010 to 2020 targets specific to the transportation arena, specifically its biofuel penetration objectives and gram CO2 per kilometre emission caps. Using a dynamic recursive general equilibrium model, IMACLIM-R, we demonstrate that these overarching targets do not dominate the interim transportation targets when the carbon policy triggering compliance with the mitigation objectives boils down to the theoretical least-cost option of uniform carbon pricing. Ground transportation is confirmed as quite insensitive to high carbon prices, even when such prices are applied over a long term. It is tempting to conclude that pursuing the mitigation objectives specific to transportation will impose unnecessary costs. However, because of the second best conditions prevailing in actual economies, and of the risk of lock-in in carbon intensive trajectories, we conclude with the urgent need for some ambitious transport-specific policy design research agenda.
