The author presents his own original conception of the 2011 Arab upheavals. First, he tries to find parallels between the Arab Spring and the 19th century European Spring of Peoples. Second, he dwells on the idea of three types of transition in the Arab World: economic, demographic, and ideological. Third, he reflects on the issues of democracy and autocracy in the Arab countries emphasizing the role of youth. Fourth, he puts forward some new ideas as regards the relationship between Europe and the Arab World, offering such terms as "democratic internationalism" and "young democratic safety belt" in the Mediterranean region.
Through the recent decades, the use of asymmetric and hybrid measures in international relations has acquired a qualitatively new scale and system. Today such measures have turned into one of the leading forms of external pressure and subsequent coercion, often exceeding the effectiveness of such straightforward instruments as the threat of potential use of force and almost equal to real power actions. Arguably, among those asymmetric and hybrid measures, Western countries assign a key role to the pressure of international sanction upon competitor nations and uncooperative actors on the world arena. The article is devoted to a critical analysis of some common approaches to the study of the problems of «targeted» sanctions in the theory and practice of international relations and the use of sanctions as a means of achieving geostrategic objectives, including such ambitious ones as social constructivism and social engineering on national, regional and global scales. Particular attention is paid to the contribution of Thomas Biersteker to the development of the theory and of practical designs of «targeted sanctions» in international relations. The author disputes with him over some issues related to the effectiveness of targeted sanctions and the impact they produce upon various sectors of the targeted societies. Based on the author's schematic matrix of sanctional influences upon national elites and possible limits of their responses, the article formulates the principles of segmentation of the national elites both for the purposes of identifying the layers most susceptible to sanctional pressure and singling out most effective and capable strata from the point of view of practical implementation of the indented outcomes of the undertaken pressure from the outside.
The article scrutinizes the course of the Second Summit and the Russia-Africa Economic and Humanitarian Forum, which was successfully held in St. Petersburg on July 27–28, 2023, despite the persistent efforts of the West to disrupt it. The authors summarize the first results of this landmark event, outlining how the second forum differed from the first, and analyze the main areas of cooperation between Russia and Africa in the context of the transformation of the world order. The main question that the authors pose in the article is why Africans continue to rely on Russia and are ready to cooperate with it, despite the threats of the United States and former metropolises in their address? The authors see the answer in the unwillingness of Africans to abide by the West imposed rules, as well as in the opening of a unique opportunity to achieve real sovereignty and free themselves from the legacy of colonialism, not in words, but in deeds. The key issues that concern both Russia and Africa today are the formation of a new more just world order, security in the broad sense of the word, scientific and technological breakthrough and economic development in the interests of their own countries and peoples, new mechanisms and forms of mutually beneficial cooperation and interaction in the humanitarian sphere. According to the authors, though landmark events of such magnitude as the Second Summit and Russia-Africa Economic and Humanitarian Forum, are important by themselves, real value should be measured by the processes they unleash. Only a few months have passed since the summit, but concrete projects in the African direction have already begun to be implemented. And this gives hope that most of the interesting and promising ideas and proposals put forward at the summit will be implemented. And this meets the interests of both Russia and the countries of the Global South, as it lays the foundations for the formation of a new world order that is more just and meets the interests of the global majority.
The authors posit that a given world order for analytical purposes may be regarded as a large self-developing system in which developing countries form a massive subsystem (DC subsystem). And the survival of the entire Large System in its unique essence crucially depends on a certain state and position of this subsystem. The article puts forward a number of theoretical propositions about the regularities of the successive change of the world order systems. Possible vectors and expected limits of changes in the state of the "DC subsystem" in the new equation of the post-crisis world order are shown. The authors conclude that the intensity of competition between global centers of power for influence in the emerging world order will increase over the next decade. In these conditions, developing countries, despite their heterogeneity and increasing differentiation, can exert a certain influence on the course of this struggle and on the design of the structures of the emerging world order. The situation of rising instability and confrontational geopolitical environment in the world after February 2022 will not bypass developing regions. The West will seek to drive Russia and China into a "geopolitical box" in the short term, and in the medium and long term it will aim to reduce its perimeter. Intensive development of a wide range of relations with developing countries is an important condition to successfully counter the Western aggression. Apart from directly counteracting the efforts of the rival, Moscow and Beijing will systematically work towards the formation of norms, rules and institutions of the post-crisis world order. The most important condition for the successful promotion of Russian interests in Asia, Africa and Latin America is the understanding and pragmatic consideration of the assessments and vision of the developing countries themselves of their own interests in this emerging world order.
More than two years have passed since the first Russia-Africa Summit and Economic Forum, which were successfully held in Sochi in October 2019. The very fact of holding an event of this magnitude testifies both to the historical "turn" of the Russian Federation towards the African continent, and to the unprecedented enthusiasm of the African side about the "return" of Russia to Africa. The task facing the organizers of the next Russia-Africa Summit is to consolidate and build on the success achieved in October 2019. Obviously, the second forum should not be a repetition of the first, but a qualitatively new step in the development of Russian-African relations, therefore, its meaningful content needs to be substantially enhanced and expanded. It is necessary to move from the formulation of goals and objectives of Russian policy in the African direction to the implementation of specific projects and the development of a mechanism and tools for mutually beneficial cooperation. It is vital to show the Africans exactly how Russia differs from other partners of the continent, and to highlight those areas of cooperation that can contribute to the implementation of the strategic development tasks of the Russian Federation and the African continent. The authors of the article posit, that the key link in our relations in the near future, which will be attractive for African countries and will contribute to the successful economic development of the Russian Federation, can be the development of bilateral opportunities for technological partnership, since it becomes for the interacting parties a driver for the development of their economies in the context of the fourth industrial revolution and an incentive to create new strategic alliances. In a post-pandemic world, the demand for Russian technologies in Africa can grow significantly, since Russia has high competencies in precisely those areas that are most in demand today on the African continent. The transfer of Russian technologies, as well as cooperation in the scientific field, are not only beneficial to Russia in terms of image, presenting Moscow as a force contributing to the advanced development of Africa and strengthening its economic sovereignty. It allows our country to form an army of its supporters in the states of the continent by solving the problem of overcoming technological backwardness and training qualified personnel who will master and promote specifically Russian technological solutions. In addition, Russia receives a vast "testing ground" for processing and improving its technologies, which are in demand by the fast-growing young African population, and a huge market for Russian high-tech goods and services, which is so necessary for many Russians, including regional, manufacturers who are ready to increase their production, but experience difficulties in marketing their produce.
The authors produced a concept of emergence, evolution and expiration of Global Economic Development Models (GEDM). According to their hypothesis, the transformation of GEDMs occupies the unique intermediate position between stadial and cyclic economic changes. The article offers periodization and description of economic models that existed during the last 200 years, and elaborates on the future characteristics of the emerging GEDM of the 21st century, with special emphasis on natural resources, shifts in the global balance of power, social structures and global governance.