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AbstractInterpreting any decision requires making auxiliary assumptions regarding how the decision makers viewed their options and related them to their lives. Theories constrain those assumptions. The more general the theory, the fewer constraints it imposes and the more assumptions must be made in any application. Like the rational actor models that they challenged, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky's heuristics-and-biases and prospect theory research programs were general theories, with broad application. One of the many marvels of their landmark studies is that they rarely test their auxiliary assumptions. Rather, readers were trusted to agree about how people interpret the tasks (e.g., select anchors in studies of that heuristic). Subsequent studies have often accepted those interpretations in order to examine boundary conditions (e.g., extreme anchors). Applying the theories to naturally occurring tasks requires making additional auxiliary assumptions. This article illustrates three ways to evaluate those assumptions: direct assessment, systematic manipulation, and archival analysis. It concludes with proposals for loosely coordinated evaluation of shared and contested assumptions.

AbstractThe behavioral sciences were there at the beginning of the systematic study of climate change. However, in the ensuing quarter century, they largely faded from view, during which time public discourse and policy evolved without them. That disengagement and the recent reengagement suggest lessons for the future role of the behavioral sciences in climate science and policy. Looking forward, the greatest promise lies in projects that make behavioral science integral to climate science by: (1) translating behavioral results into the quantitative estimates that climate analyses need; (2) making climate research more relevant to climate-related decisions; and (3) treating the analytical process as a behavioral enterprise, potentially subject to imperfection and improvement. Such collaborations could afford the behavioral sciences more central roles in setting climate-related policies, as well as implementing them. They require, and may motivate, changes in academic priorities.

In 2012, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) commissioned a consensus report from the National Research Council on ethical and social issues associated with military research and development (R&D). DARPA's interest was both principled and practical. It wanted to do the right thing, as defined by US and international law, the Geneva Conventions, the laws of armed conflict, and similar prescriptions. Here, Fischhoff demonstrates how military R&D can become sensitive to ethical concerns, as discussed in the 2013 report Emerging and Readily Available Technologies and National Security: A Framework for Addressing Ethical, Legal, and Societal Issues. Adapted from the source document.

Risk research is a complex social enterprise, reflecting the beliefs and values of those closest to its creation. For public values to be expressed in risk research, the public needs the same access as those who conduct and directly sponsor that research. Providing that access requires more open research management and more responsive research methods.

The expression of values in the conduct & communication of risk research is examined. The shape & content of risk research is influenced by the sponsors that fund research efforts. Too much sensitivity to sponsors leads to a variety of subtle pressure, ranging from more rigorous double-checking of uncomfortable vs desirous results, to explanation of findings in terms sponsors can readily understand. However, public trust in risk research can only be secured through the expression of public values in the research. For this to be accomplished, the public needs the same access to research as those who conduct & directly sponsor it. Providing such access requires more open research management & more responsible research methods. 2 Tables. Adapted from the source document.

Over the past twenty years, risk communication researchers and practitioners have learned some lessons, often at considerable personal price. For the most part, the mistakes that they have made have been natural, even intelligent ones. As a result, the same pitfalls may tempt newcomers to the field. This essay offers a personal (even confessional) history of the field over this period. It identifies a series of developmental stages. Progress through the stages involves consolidating the skills needed to execute it and learning its limitations. Knowing about their existence might speed the learning process and alert one to how much there still is to learn.