Suchergebnisse

Abstract. Recently, the availability of multi-model ensemble prediction methods has permitted a shift from a scenario-based approach to a risk-based approach in assessing the effects of climate change. This provides more useful information to decision-makers who need probability estimates to assess the seriousness of the projected impacts. In this study, a probabilistic framework for evaluating the risk of durum wheat yield shortfall over the Mediterranean Basin has been exploited. An artificial neural network, trained to emulate the outputs of a process-based crop growth model, has been adopted to create yield response surfaces which are then overlaid with probabilistic projections of future temperature and precipitation changes in order to estimate probabilistic projections of future yields. The risk is calculated as the relative frequency of projected yields below a selected threshold. In contrast to previous studies, which suggest that the beneficial effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration over the next few decades would outweigh the detrimental effects of the early stages of climatic warming and drying, the results of this study are of greater concern.

The active participation of the stakeholder community is viewed as a crucial consideration in the regional assessment of climate change in the Mediterranean. Each of the CIRCE integrating case studies has benefited from the real-life experience and expertise of local and regional stakeholders. The level of involvement has included stakeholder dialogue on an informal basis throughout the project, culminating in a series of more formal regional stakeholder workshops in the final year of the project. For each case study, stakeholders were chosen from the arena for which decisions are made at the regional-to-local level, and comprise local and regional decision and policy makers within government departments, agencies, and public/private sector entities. Regional stakeholders have contributed to the case-study assessments in six key areas: the conceptual framework and indicator selection, data and knowledge, identification of climate impact thresholds, risk assessment and management, strategies for adaptation, and guidance for policy. However, impediments to stakeholder participation have also been highlighted and include lack of motivation and resources commitment, stakeholder fatigue, and a need for targeted information. The CIRCE experience suggests that a more participatory approach, which involves sharing of 'best' practice and accessible targeted information, will be fundamental to successful adaptation planning in the Mediterranean region. This experience has also been used to develop a good practice checklist for facilitating stakeholder involvement in research projects.