Suchergebnisse

In an article published in the September, 2007 issue of Politics and Policy, "Race, Roll‐Off, and the Straight‐Ticket Option," this author reported that African‐American voters are less likely than white voters to roll off (or drop off) for lower‐level offices if the straight‐ticket option is available. That surprising result was traced to the finding that black voters were much more likely than white voters to use that option (which eliminates roll‐off for lower‐level offices). However, that finding was based on just one election in a Southern state. This article extends this research by exploring the race‐roll‐off‐straight‐ticket option relationship in three racially diverse Midwestern jurisdictions, and also by exploring it when votes for ballot measures are considered. It confirms the earlier result regarding elections for lower‐level office but finds that the option leads to increased roll‐off on ballot measures and, consequently, to even more roll‐off among black voters than white voters on ballot measures.En el artículo "Race, Roll‐Off, and the Straight‐Ticket Option," publicado en el número de Septiembre de 2007 de Politics & Policy, éste autor reportó que en comparación con los votantes blancos, es más probable que los votantes afroamericanos ejerzan su voto a favor de todos los contendientes de su partido preferido si la opción de straight‐ticket fuera implementada. Esta opción implica que el elector puede votar en una sola boleta por todos los candidatos del mismo partido que están contendiendo por puestos de elección popular, esto en lugar de llenar una boleta por cada puesto (presidente, senador, diputado, y así respectivamente). Sin embargo, el hallazgo sobre la mayor predisposición de la población afroamericana a recurrir a dicha opción se basó en investigación realizada en un solo estado sureño. El presente artículo va más allá al explorar la relación entre raza y la opción straight–ticket en tres jurisdicciones racialmente diversas del medio‐oeste, y al explorarlas también cuando los votos son considerados para referenda. Esta investigación confirma el hallazgo de la investigación anterior sobre la preferencia afroamericana por el straight–ticket pero descubre que hay menor preferencia por dicha opción por parte de los afroamericanos respecto a los blancos cuando ésta involucra decidir asuntos de referenda de acuerdo a las posiciones del partido preferido.

On April 17, 2001, Mississippians went to the polls & voted by a margin of about two to one to retain a state flag that included a representation of the Confederate battle flag. In many ways, the controversy developed along lines consistent with perspectives on southern politics offered by political scientists in recent years. This study examines the Mississippi flag campaign & vote from the vantage point provided by the "New South-Old South" perspective on contemporary southern politics & finds that it fits well. Applying Ecological Inference to precinct-level data that combines Census data with flag referendum data, the essay concludes that black turnout was noticeably lighter than normal but that only about ten percent of Mississippi's African Americans who voted cast ballots in support of the old flag; it also finds that while white support for the new flag was generally low, it was about twice as high in counties with sizeable numbers of college graduates than in other counties. The inability of two major pre-referendum surveys to correctly estimate the low level of black support for the old flag is most likely due to a failure to identify adequately the relatively small numbers of likely voters from among the many persons interviewed. 5 Tables, 1 Figure, 1 Appendix, 12 References. Adapted from the source document.

The field of judicial impact research has been aptly described as atheoretical. But recently a framework has been proposed for organizing this research and for giving direction to future research efforts in this area. As this insightful framework suggests, investigations concerning the indirect policy consequences of court decisions are best seen as rooted not only in earlier judicial impact studies but also in previous research in the particular policy arena of interest. In this article, this insight is employed in an attempt to explain the well-documented state-to-state variation in the impact on state spending of the Supreme Court reapportionment decisions of the 1960s. Using the states as units of analysis, multiple regression analysis is used to explain the extent of impact on two areas of state government spending: aid to local education and public welfare. The same multiple regression equation is found to fit both areas of reapportionment impact surprisingly well.

State-to-state variation in the impact on state spending of the Supreme Court reapportionment decisions of the 1960s; extent of impact on aid to local education and public welfare.

Two models of the impact of legislative reapportionment upon state expenditures are developed and fitted to data in two expenditure areas for all 50 of the states. This fitting of the data to the models is accomplished via the use of dummy variable regression analysis. Statistical tests are used to show that reapportionment had an impact on state aid to local education in about one-half of the states and on state expenditures for public welfare in nearly all of the states.

Ridge regression is introduced, its use in dealing with the problem of multicollinearity is explained, & its value in this regard is demonstrated on several sets of artificial, computer-generated data. Ridge regression is a method of biased estimation designed to improve upon least squares estimation when multicollinearity is present. Whereas previous studies of ridge regression have been based on mathematical proofs & analyses of isolated examples, ridge regression is demonstrated on several sets of artificial data where each set exhibits different degrees of multicollinearity & degrees of fit between dependent & independent variables. In the presence of multicollinearity, ridge regression produces estimates with lower mean square error than does least squares & that ridge's margin of superiority is greatest when multicollinearity is high & the fit between dependent & independent varibles is poor. 2 Figures, 1 Table. AA.

There is widespread agreement that the South has changed dramatically since the end of World War II. Social, demographic, economic, and political changes have altered significantly the region long considered the nation's most distinctive. There is less agreement, however, about the extent to which the forces of nationalization have eroded the major elements of Southern distinctiveness. Although this volume does not purport to settle the debate on Southern political change, it does present a variety of recent evidence that helps put this important debate into perspe