Suchergebnisse

Abstract. Vegetation indices based on satellite images, such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), have been used in countries like the USA, Canada and Spain for damaged pasture and forage insurance over the last few years. This type of agricultural insurance is called satellite-index-based insurance (SIBI). In SIBI, the occurrence of damage is defined as normal distributions. In this work a pasture area at the north of the Community of Madrid (Spain) has been delimited by means of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images. A statistical analysis of NDVI histograms was applied to seek for alternative distributions using the maximum likelihood method and χ2 test. The results show that the normal distribution is not the optimal representation and the generalized extreme value (GEV)
distribution presents a better fit through the year based on a quality
estimator. A comparison between normal and GEV is shown with respect to the
probability under a NDVI threshold value throughout the year. This suggests that
an a priori distribution should not be selected and a percentile methodology
should be used to define a NDVI damage threshold rather than the average and
standard deviation, typically of normal distributions. Highlights.
The GEV distribution provides better fit to the NDVI historical observations than the normal one.
Differences between normal and GEV distributions are higher during spring and autumn, which are transition periods in the precipitation regimen. NDVI damage threshold shows evident differences using normal and GEV distributions both covering the same probability (24.20 %). NDVI damage threshold values based on percentile calculation are proposed as an improvement in the index-based insurance in damaged pasture.

Abstract. Risk assessment constitutes the first part within the risk management framework and involves evaluating the importance of a risk, either quantitatively or qualitatively. Risk assessment consists of three steps, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. Nevertheless, the risk management framework also includes a fourth step, i.e., the need for feedback on all the risk assessment undertakings. However, there is a lack of such feedback, which constitutes a serious deficiency in the reduction of environmental hazards at the present time. Risk identification of local or regional hazards involves hazard quantification, event monitoring including early warning systems and statistical inference. Risk identification also involves the development of a database where historical hazard information and hazard effects are included. Similarly, risk estimation involves magnitude–frequency relationships and hazard economic costs. Furthermore, risk evaluation consists of the social consequences of the derived risk and involves cost-benefit analysis and community policy. The objective of this review paper is twofold. On the one hand, it is to address meteorological hazards and extremes within the risk management framework. Analysis results and case studies over Mediterranean ecosystems with emphasis on the wider area of Greece, in the eastern Mediterranean, are presented for each of the three steps of risk assessment for several environmental hazards. The results indicate that the risk management framework constitutes an integrated approach for environmental planning and decision-making. On the other hand, it sheds light on advances and current trends in the considered meteorological and environmental hazards and extreme events, such as tornadoes, waterspouts, hailstorms, heat waves, droughts, floods, heavy convective precipitation, landslides and wildfires, using recorded datasets, model simulations and innovative methodologies.