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Intro -- Dedication -- Contents -- Contributors -- Chapter 1: Introduction -- 1.1 The Project -- 1.2 Researching Extortion Rackets -- 1.3 Enhancing Understanding -- References -- Part I: Extortion Rackets as a Global Phenomenon -- Chapter 2: National Mafia-Type Organisations: Local Threat, Global Reach -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Yakuza -- 2.2.1 Systemic Extortion -- 2.2.2 Casual Extortion -- 2.3 Russia -- 2.4 Latin America -- 2.5 Germany -- 2.6 Summary -- References -- Chapter 3: Basic Dynamics of Extortion Racketeering -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 The State -- 3.2.1 State Responsiveness -- 3.2.2 Dissociation from the State -- 3.3 The Criminal Organisation -- 3.3.1 Institutional Penetration -- 3.3.2 Conditions of Enforcement -- 3.4 Civil Society -- 3.4.1 Cognitive Social Capital -- 3.4.2 Structural Social Capital -- 3.5 Summary -- 3.5.1 Socio-Spatial Factors -- 3.5.2 Socio-Normative Factors -- 3.5.3 Social-Cognitive Factors -- References -- Part II: Society and the State -- Chapter 4: Social Norms and Extortion Rackets -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Norm Fundamentals -- 4.3 Norms in Protection Rackets -- 4.3.1 Legal and Social Norms in Protection Rackets -- 4.3.2 Other Norms in Protection Rackets -- 4.4 Interdependence of Legal and Social Norms -- 4.5 Norm Change and Protection Rackets -- 4.5.1 The Sicilian Mafia -- 4.5.2 The Georgian Mafia -- 4.6 Summary -- References -- Chapter 5: Legal Norms Against the Italian Mafia -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 The Long Sleep of the Criminal Code of 1930 -- 5.3 The First Measures of Non-criminal Nature -- 5.4 The Anti-mafia Law of 1982 -- 5.5 Normative Juxtaposition and First Judicial Experiences: The Decade 1982-1992 -- 5.6 The Response to the Mafia Attacks of 1992 -- 5.7 The Key Sector of the Fight Against Illicit Proceeds: Increase of Patrimonial Prevention and Social Reuse of Confiscated Assets.

Introduction --Theorising Norms --Theorising Crime --Agent-Based Modelling --The Environment and Social Norms --Punishment and Social Norms --Imitation and Social Norms --Socially Situated Social Norms --Internalisation and Social Norms --Modelling Norms --Delinquent Networks --Social Construction of Knowledge --Morality --We-Intentionality --Conclusion.

As policy makers require more rigorous assessments for the strength of evidence in Theory-Based evaluations, Bayesian logic is attracting increasing interest; however, the estimation of probabilities that this logic (almost) inevitably requires presents challenges. Probabilities can be estimated on the basis of empirical frequencies, but such data are often unavailable for most mechanisms that are objects of evaluation. Subjective probability elicitation techniques are well established in other fields and potentially applicable, but they present potential challenges and might not always be feasible. We introduce the community to a third way: simulated probabilities. We provide proof of concept that simulation can be used to estimate probabilities in diagnostic evaluation and illustrate our case with an application to health policy.