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This study analyses the processes and assumptions underlying the development of Indonesia's NDC and its revision in 2020. The assumptions underlying the related energy sector documents (KEN, RUEN, RUKN, RUPTL) and their relationships are also assessed. The study is completed by giving a snap-shot of the current state of discussion around constraints related to renewable energy. The unconditional target of Indonesia's NDC foresees a reduction of GHG emissions of 29% relative to a Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario (41% conditional to international support). It specifies that electricity generation shall reduce emissions by 18.8% relative to BAU. The overall target of a 29% and 41% have been set by a non-public process. The sectoral shares of GHG reductions are determined by the responsible ministries (ESDM in case of the energy sector), with modelling per-formed by academic institutions (e.g. BTI for energy). This modelling is partly based on existing plans of the energy sector. Data underlying this modelling is not public, but underlying socio-economic assumptions suggest that the BAU scenario overestimates emissions. The NDC has no influence on planning in the energy sector but should be considered a by-product of existing planning documents. The process underlying the current revision is repeated for the current revision of the NDC and likely also for creation of the LTS. The ambition under the revised NDC will not be increased. The share of renewable energy in the NDC follows from a cascade of energy planning documents (KEN, RUEN, RUKN, RUPTL), which pass the target from the most overarching energy plans to the NDC. Arguably the most important target related to renewable energy planning in Indonesia set down by the countries' energy strategy KEN, to reach 23% renewable energy in each sector in total primary energy supply in 2025. The assumptions underlying this target are not known and can therefore not be contested. The national energy plan RUEN makes this target more specific in terms of technology. The power sector plan by the ministry of energy RUKN and the power sector plan by the utility RUPTL all consider 23% renewable energy target. Besides that, these plans remain largely disconnected from each other. Nearly all energy planning documents regularly make use of overestimated GDP growth assumptions for the future, which has implications for the relevance of target set relative to this baseline. Technological assumptions remain undisclosed. There is no evidence costs play a role in any of these planning documents and the underlying modelling is not cost-optimized. To understand the perspective of renewable energy in Indonesia, it is essential to consider factors that go beyond planning documents. Costs of renewable energy projects are higher in Indonesia than global averages. Project costs are especially determined by land permits, technology costs and an elevated cost of finance. The discussions often revolve around the impossibility to integrate renewable energy sources to the power system due to their variability. This line of argumentation claims lacking grid stability, inflexible grid management and points to difficulties in developing interconnections between islands. Implementation is not determined by following cost-optimized planning, but by a political agenda serving vested interests in the energy sector, which leads to an increased use of fossil fuels, in particular coal-fired power capacities.

Mexico is signatory to the Paris Agreement. As such, the country submitted its first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in 2014 in the run-up to the Paris agreement. In the past years, renewable energy systems have seen a massive cost reduction, which should be considered energy sector and climate change mitigation plans (also see Eckstein et al. (2020)). In view of these developments, this study analyses the process underlying the development of Mexico's NDC and its revision in 2020 with a particular focus on the energy sector and renewable energy systems. The assumptions underlying the related energy sector planning document (PRODESEN) and the relationships to the NDC are assessed. The study is completed by giving a snapshot of political constraints under the current administration of President López Obrador. The study builds on literature review and insights gained from interviews with pertinent Mexican stakeholders. In Mexico's NDC, emissions are estimated to increase by roughly 50% between 2013 and 2030 in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. The unconditional mitigation target of Mexico's NDC foresees a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction by 22% by 2030 relative to BAU. In the electricity sector, the NDC aims at a 31% GHG emissions reduction. The target setting process remains publicly undisclosed and highly politicized. The main responsibility for the NDC revision is with the Environment Ministry of Mexico (SEMARNAT). SEMARNAT is supported by the National Institute for Ecology and Climate Change (INECC), a body created under the climate change law. The highest level administrative body in the energy sector in Mexico is the Energy Ministry (SENER), responsible for the establishment of targets and strategic transmission investments for renewable energy. The 2020 NDC revision considers only enhanced energy efficiency measures and to a large extent disregards renewable energies in the power sector. Energy sector planning is described to align to political interests and not to follow cost optimization, despite the fact that cost optimization modelling exercises have been carried out by SENER and supported by international organizations. [.]

Mexico is signatory to the Paris Agreement. As such, the country submitted its first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in 2014 in the run-up to the Paris agreement. In the past years, renewable energy systems have seen a massive cost reduction, which should be considered energy sector and climate change mitigation plans (also see Eckstein et al. (2020)). In view of these developments, this study analyses the process underlying the development of Mexico´s NDC and its revision in 2020 with a particular focus on the energy sector and renewable energy systems. The assumptions underlying the related energy sector planning document (PRODESEN) and the relationships to the NDC are assessed. The study is completed by giving a snapshot of political constraints under the current administration of President López Obrador. The study builds on literature review and insights gained from interviews with pertinent Mexican stakeholders. In Mexico´s NDC, emissions are estimated to increase by roughly 50% between 2013 and 2030 in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. The unconditional mitigation target of Mexico´s NDC foresees a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction by 22% by 2030 relative to BAU. In the electricity sector, the NDC aims at a 31% GHG emissions reduction. The target setting process remains publicly undisclosed and highly politicized. The main responsibility for the NDC revision is with the Environment Ministry of Mexico (SEMARNAT). SEMARNAT is supported by the National Institute for Ecology and Climate Change (INECC), a body created under the cli-mate change law. The highest level administrative body in the energy sector in Mexico is the Energy Ministry (SENER), responsible for the establishment of targets and strategic transmission investments for renewable energy. The 2020 NDC revision considers only enhanced energy efficiency measures and to a large extent disregards renewable energies in the power sector. Energy sector planning is described to align to political interests and not to follow cost optimization, despite the fact that cost optimization modelling exercises have been carried out by SENER and supported by international organizations. In 2013, Mexico launched a set of regulatory and administrative changes related to the energy sector that are referred to as the Energy Reform. This reform restructured the energy sector, moving away from state-owned enterprises for power generation (CFE) and oil extraction (PEMEX) to a liberalized market, open to private actors. This led to competitive bidding and record-low auction outcomes for solar PV projects in the Mexican power sector. The López Obrador administration, however, builds on fossil resources and state-owned PEMEX as backbone of economic development. It perceives fossil fuel extraction as integral part of the Mexican national sentiment and therefore fosters its continued exploration. While the laws implementing the reform of 2013 have not been formally revoked, institutional, administrative and procedural practice undermine its effectiveness, making renewable energy projects in the power sector un-likely due to limited government support and creating high uncertainty with regard to the regulatory future. Under the current administration, government agencies such as INECC and SEMARNAT have experienced substantial budget cuts, undermining their institutional capacity to support climate change goals. In conclusion, despite large potentials and record low costs for renewable energy projects, key energy sector planning documents in Mexico largely disregard low costs of renewable energies. The energy planning paradigm is determined by a shift away from competitive energy markets towards political patronage, locking Mexico´s power sector into a future of higher costs and in-creased GHG emissions.

This study builds on three case studies in Argentina, Indonesia and Mexico and which analyse the implications of falling costs for renewable energy systems on the countries' energy sector planning and climate policy. Each case study consists of two country specific reports. The first report analyses how falling costs of renewable energy could impact country specific power sector development. The second report analyses the process of climate and renewable energy target setting, as well as the prevalent narrative around renewable energy integration. Finally, the present report provides a cross-country synthesis of all case studies, providing insights into the question of how falling costs of renewable energy systems might support the achievement of the goals of the Paris Agreement. Globally falling cost figures for solar PV and wind energy do not naturally translate into increased ambition in planning. The integration of these technologies to the energy system still face substantial barriers in our case study countries. The integration of higher shares of renewable energy goes along with investments into transmission and distribution network modernisation, network expansion and interconnections between power grids. Though an important element, falling costs for renewable energy projects alone do not necessarily translate into overall reduced power system costs. While globally falling costs for wind and solar PV are indicative for learning curve effects in the manufacturing of these technologies, the LCOE of renewable projects is highly sensitive to financing costs. These are largely determined by the local political and regulatory framework and remain high in our case countries, representing a barrier. We find that a number of regulatory and administrative barriers hinder higher integration of solar PV and wind. Frequently changing regulations and ill-designed support schemes often prevail over well-designed renewable energy auction schemes that are followed over several years. We find the political economy fossil fuels to be pivotal in the energy sector and climate planning and target setting processes. Fossil fuel endowments and a long history of natural resource exploitation lead to strong vested interests towards sustaining the use of fossil fuels to satisfy a growing electricity demand. We conclude that falling costs for key renewable energy technologies alone are no silver bullet for climate change mitigation in the energy sector. Putting the country case studies in perspective of a schematic pathway to-wards achieving net zero emissions we find our case study countries to be in an early phase, struggling to integrate increasing shares of (variable) renewable energy into their power systems. The future challenges coming along with a phase-out of fossil fuels, successful sector coupling and questions related to full decarbonisation still lie ahead. While these are dominant topics in Europe, more basic and fundamental questions of renewables integration still determine the discussion in emerging economies. These local topics need to be reflected in policies and measures taken to support full decarbonisation. Nevertheless, as costs of renewables continue to fall, the balance of arguments will incline more strongly towards renewable energy. Overcoming key financial, technical, administrative and market related barriers will further support the integration of renewable energy technologies, thereby coming closer towards achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement.

This study builds on three case studies in Argentina, Indonesia and Mexico which analyse the implications of falling costs for renewable energy systems on the countries' energy sector planning and climate policy. Each case study consists of two country specific reports. The first report analyses how falling costs of renewable energy could impact country specific power sector development. The second report analyses the process of climate and renewable energy target setting, as well as the prevalent narrative around renewable energy integration. Finally, the present report provides a cross-country synthesis of all case studies, providing insights into the question of how falling costs of renewable energy systems might support the achievement of the goals of the Paris Agreement. Globally falling cost figures for solar PV and wind energy do not naturally translate into increased ambition in planning. The integration of these technologies to the energy system still face substantial barriers in our case study countries: The integration of higher shares of renewable energy goes along with investments into transmission and distribution network modernisation, network expansion and interconnections between power grids. Though an important element, falling costs for renewable energy projects alone do not necessarily translate into overall reduced power system costs. While globally falling costs for wind and solar PV are indicative for learning curve effects in the manufacturing of these technologies, the LCOE of renewable projects is highly sensitive to financing costs. These are largely determined by the local political and regulatory framework and remain high in our case countries, representing a barrier. We find that a number of regulatory and administrative barriers hinder higher integration of solar PV and wind. Frequently changing regulations and ill-designed support schemes often prevail over welldesigned renewable energy auction schemes that are followed over several years. We find the political economy fossil fuels to be pivotal in the energy sector and climate planning and target setting processes. Fossil fuel endowments and a long history of natural resource exploitation lead to strong vested interests towards sustaining the use of fossil fuels to satisfy a growing electricity demand. [.]

Dieses Gutachten untersucht das Zusammenspiel und die Kombination des EU-Innovationsfonds (IF) mit anderen Förderprogrammen auf EU und deutscher Ebene. Der Fokus liegt auf der EUETS Industrie und der Förderung von Sprunginnovationen mit einem hohen Potenzial zur Dekarbonisierung. Neben generellen Aspekten der Projektförderung ist bei der Kombination des IF mit nationalen Mitteln die Betrachtung des Beihilferechts essentiell. Das Gutachten stellt die wesentlichen Förderprogramme im Überblick in Form von Steckbriefen dar und untersucht dann anhand von zwei Programmen der EU-Ebene und vier Programmen aus Deutschland - darunter das neue Förderprogramm 'Dekarbonisierung der Industrie' und die Klimaschutzverträge - wie die Förderung konkret mit dem IF kombiniert werden könnte. Da der IF das Konzept der "relevanten Kosten" unter dem IF zur Bestimmung der förderfähigen Kosten einführt und nutzt, ist es methodisch nicht einfach, die Kombination mit nationalen Mitteln zu bestimmen. Das rührt daher, dass die Regelungen zur Kombination nur allgemein durch das Beihilferecht geregelt sind und die nationale Förderung andere Referenzen und eine andere Methodik zur Bestimmung der förderfähigen Kosten verwendet. Im Normalfall kann die nationale Förderung nicht verwendet werden um die Gesamtförderquote zusammen mit dem IF zu erhöhen, da der Förderhöchstsatz des IF von 60% gemäß den Beihilfeleitlinien auch in der Kombination nicht überschritten werden darf. Nur wenn die nationale Förderung als Ausschreibung gestaltet ist, sieht das Beihilferecht keine verzerrende Wirkung mehr und die Förderung kann dann auch bis 100% der Mehrkosten addiert werden. Bei einer Kombination mit nationalen Mitteln kann zudem die Förderung unter dem IF so angesetzt werden, dass im Wesentlichen operative Mehrkosten des Projekts gefördert werden. Das Gutachten stellt auch übergreifende Überlegungen zur Vergabepraxis, zur Rolle der Dekarbonisierung in den Förderprogrammen und zu den Lücken in der Förderlandschaft an. Die anstehenden Änderungen am Beihilferecht haben potentiell großen Einfluss auf die hier dargestellten Zusammenhänge und werden daher ebenfalls besprochen.

In November 2018, the European Commission published its Strategic Long-Term Vision entitled "A Clean Planet for all" calling for the target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. This proposal was subsequently agreed upon by EU heads of state and government, it features centrally in the European Green Deal and has now been made a legally binding objective in the EU Climate Law. The Strategic Long-Term Vision was supported by a detailed In-depth Analysis. The central objective of the work presented in this report was to assess the European Commission's Strategic Long-Term Vision and supplementary materials and reflect on them in light of state-of-the-art sector analyses. The report is a summary of a series of publications. These publications provide insights on the In-depth Analysis along with an assessment of the role of the Strategic Vision and how it can be turned into an effective long-term strategy for the EU. In addition, sector analyses for the transport sector, the industry sector and the buildings sector provide insights on the action needed to reach long-term decarbonisation in those sectors. An assessment of the inception impact assessment to the Effort Sharing Regulation shed light on different options for a meaningful combination of CO2 pricing (emissions trading) and regulation under the Effort Sharing Regulation. Lastly, a stocktake on the overall landscape of EU climate governance as of autumn of 2021 identified remaining weaknesses and recommends ways to strengthen the existing processes to ensure that they can get the EU on a path towards climate neutrality. A central recommendation is the call for an update to the EU long-term strategy as a central hub to provide oversight and guidance for sectoral and horizontal strategies as well as the next policy package (beyond 2030) that is due in 2024.

Given that the Paris Agreement has strengthened the long-term temperature goal and that it calls for a balance of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and sinks within the 21st century, there is the urgent need to re-assess the long-term targets of the EU and to show how the target of GHG neutrality can be reached in the EU. The aim of this study was to design a scenario called "GHGneutral EU2050" as one way to realize a European Union with net-zero greenhouse gas emissions under further sustainability criteria. The scenario shows that a GHG-neutral EU is feasible even without the use of carbon capture and storage and with limited amounts of bioenergy. Key components of the scenario in all energy-consuming sectors (industry, buildings and transport) are a strong increase in energy efficiency as well as far-reaching electrification. These measures can reduce the final energy demand (including international transport) by about 37% and the share of electricity can be increased to almost 50%. In addition, a broad portfolio of other renewable energy options has to be exploited and substantial quantities of renewable fuels are required, which are produced from renewable electricity via electrolysis or based on biomass. Due to unavoidable GHG emissions from agriculture, industrial processes and waste treatment, achieving GHG neutrality also requires lower activity of the agricultural sector and an increased GHG sink from forestry. Besides the detailed quantitative description of a sectoral setup for all GHG-emitting sectors, the study contains a qualitative discussion of the sectoral options to reach GHG-neutrality, cross-sectoral interactions as well as the challenges associated with realizing such a scenario.

In 2018, the European Commission presented its long-term Strategic Vision "A clean planet for all", which calls for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) of the European Union by 2050. The Strategic Vision is accompanied by the In-depth Analysis containing a detailed impact assessment based on a scenario analysis. This paper presents the findings of an assessment of the In-depth Analysis, in particular its suitability as the analytical input for the Strategic Vision. In summary, the In-depth Analysis covers the key aspects for building an adequate long-term climate strategy and is thus a strong foundation for the Strategic Vision, in spite of certain limitations. The presented pathways to net-zero emissions cover all the relevant sectors and GHGs and are in accordance with other studies. However, they are not fully assessable, because important input and output data are not provided for all scenarios. Moreover, it is unclear why none of the scenarios maximises the use of renewable energies. The variety of models used provides evidence for the economic feasibility of such a transition. In this regard, the restricted set of scenarios used for the macro-economic assessment is a shortcoming. In the scenarios with net-zero GHG emissions in 2050, all sectors have to pursue very ambitious emission reductions early on. Nonetheless, some remaining GHG emissions have to be compensated by a combination of natural and artificial carbon sinks. Detailed considerations of the economic and social implications of the mitigation scenarios show moderate impacts on GDP and labor in comparison to other societal drivers, but also indicate the need for a strong shift from consumption to investment in mitigation technologies and infrastructure. International cooperation is seen as essential to foster the transformation to net-zero GHG emissions.