This edition of Social Panorama of Latin America offers the customary analysis of trends in income inequality, poverty and social spending in Latin America, and includes an analysis of migration, which has moved up the region's political and social agenda. Continuing the upward trend that has been recorded since 2015 in Latin America, 30.1% of the region's population was below the poverty line in 2018, while 10.7% lived in situations of extreme poverty – rates which are seen rising to 30.8% and 11.5%, respectively, in 2019, according to ECLAC's projections. ECLAC's study also indicates that inequality in income distribution – expressed in the Gini index, based on household surveys – has continued to trend downwards. However, if the Gini index is corrected utilizing other sources of information, which are better able to capture the income of the wealthiest 1%, it can be seen that inequality is higher and the downward trend is attenuated when compared with the estimate made on the basis of household surveys alone. In another vein, the Social Panorama of Latin America 2019 indicates that social spending by central governments rose from 10.3% to 11.3% of GDP between 2011 and 2018, reaching 52.5% of total public spending.The study warns that it is precisely those countries with the lowest levels of social spending that face the greatest challenges to achieving the 2030 Agenda's targets. The report concludes that policies for social and labor inclusion are needed to eradicate poverty and reduce inequality and the vulnerability of low- and middle-income strata. This also requires a labor market that guarantees quality employment and decent pay, eliminating women's barriers to labor insertion, and strengthening the development of comprehensive and universal social protection systems in the framework of Welfare States centered on rights and equality.
The 2018 edition of the Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean, its seventieth issue, consists of three parts. Part I outlines the region's economic performance in 2017 and analyses trends in the early months of 2018, as well as the outlook for the rest of the year. It examines the external and domestic factors that have influenced the region's economic performance, analyses the characteristics of economic growth, prices and the labour market, and draws attention to some of the macroeconomic policy challenges of the prevailing external conditions, amid mounting uncertainty stemming mainly from political factors. Part II of this edition, which has three chapters, analyses the dynamics of investment and its determinants, with a view to identifying the different variables on which public policy can act to influence the trajectory of investment. Part III of this publication may be accessed on the website of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (www.cepal.org). It contains the notes relating to the economic performance of the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean in 2017 and the first half of 2018, together with their respective statistical annexes.
The 2017 edition of the Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean consists of three parts. Part I outlines the region's economic performance in 2016 and analyses trends in the early months of 2017, as well as the outlook for the rest of the year. It examines the external and domestic factors that have influenced the region's economic performance and draws attention to some of the macroeconomic policy challenges of the prevailing external conditions, with a modest uptick in global economic growth and trade amid persistent uncertainty, especially in relation to political factors. The thematic section of this edition analyses the characteristics of the current economic cycle in the region (2009-2016) and contrasts it with the two preceding cycles (1990-2001 and 2002-2008). It also identifies and attempts to explain some of the determinants of the cycle and outlines possible strategies for regaining growth. Part III of this publication may be accessed on the website of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (www.cepal.org/en). It contains the notes relating to the economic performance of the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean in 2016 and the first half of 2017, together with their respective statistical annexes. The cut-off date for updating the statistical information in this publication was 30 June 2017.
The 2013 edition of Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy is subtitled "A sluggish postcrisis, mega trade negotiations and value chains: scope for regional action" and is made up of three chapters. Chapter 1 reviews the main features of the persistently weak global economy and lacklustre world trade and then turns to global and regional trade trends and prospects. Chapter II considers the main changes in the organization of production and global trade associated with international production networks, which are at the heart of the current mega-regional negotiations. It goes on to review three processes which are of particular importance: the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership between the United States and the European Union, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which brings together 12 countries of Latin America, North America, Asia and Oceania, and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, formed by the 10 member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), together with Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand and the Republic of Korea. Chapter III looks at how the Latin American and Caribbean countries are positioned in international production networks and value chains.
ECLAC projects growth of 4.3% for the Latin American and Caribbean economy in 2011, lower than the rate in 2010 when the region was rebounding from the impacts of the economic and financial crisis of 2008-2009. The forecast growth rate for 2011, which represents a 3.2% rise in per capita GDP, reflects two main factors: the slacking of global economic growth and the cooling of domestic demand in Brazil, the region's largest economy, prompted by the government's measures to keep the economy from overheating after its growth surge in 2010.
In the last four years (2003-2006), Latin America has turned in its best performance in 25 years in economic and social terms. Progress with poverty reduction, falling unemployment, improving income distribution in several countries and a strong upswing in numbers of jobs are the main factors underlying the positive trend in a number of the region's countries. The first two chapters of Social Panorama of Latin America 2006 look at the way the main social indicators have behaved in the last few years. These indicators track the evolution of poverty and extreme poverty, inequality in income distribution and changes in the main labour market indicators. The analysis focuses in particular on the performance of urban waged employment during these years of economic upswing and expansion. The following two chapters address matters that, for different reasons, have come to figure prominently on government agendas. The chapter on indigenous peoples adopts a rights-based perspective to examine the new realities of indigenous peoples' lives, their heterogeneity and, in particular, the new obligations of twenty-first century democracies in this respect. The chapter on changes in family structure in Latin America looks at new public policy issues raised by the increasing variety in family types and outlines ways in which governments are responding to these new situations. Social Panorama of Latin America 2006 uses the most recent estimates of the magnitude of poverty conducted by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). According to these estimates, in 2005, 39.8% of the region's population, or 209 million people, were poor and 15.4%, or 81 million, were extremely poor or indigent. The first chapter also gives poverty projections for 2006, according to which the numbers of poor and indigent will decline again, to 205 million and 79 million, respectively.
This year's edition of Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy is divided into six chapters. Chapter I contains an analysis of recent trends in the economies of the United States, the European Union and Japan as well as a number of emerging Asian economies. The determinants of the imbalances existing among these economies are examined, and the role of these disequilibria as the principal risk factor in what nonetheless remains a positive global environment is considered. Factors influencing the trade performance of Latin America and the Caribbean are discussed, as are the region's trade results and outlook in 2006 and 2007. The chapter concludes with an analysis of the difficult negotiation process being pursued in the Doha Round and how it has been affected by changes in United States trade policy.
Summary An economic growth rate of 5.3% is estimated for 2006, which means that the Latin American and Caribbean region will mark a third consecutive year of growth at over 4%. Thus, the region has again performed well in comparison with past periods, but it continues to fall short of other developing regions. With the international environment remaining favourable, the volume of goods and services exports was up by 8.4% for the region as a whole and the main export prices rose, which translated into a terms-oftrade improvement equivalent to over 7%. As a result of these income gains, and of increased remittances from abroad, growth in national income (7.2%) again exceeded GDP expansion. In addition, other factors, such as growing investor and consumer confidence after several years of sustained growth, real interest rates that remained relatively low despite recent hikes in many countries, a stronger boost to public spending, an expansion in total wages driven by rising employment and a modest upturn in real wages, have helped to make domestic demand into an additional engine for growth. In fact, domestic demand rose by 7.0%, with gross domestic investment up by 10.5% and consumption by 6.0%. Public spending rose in several countries as a result of larger investments in physical and social infrastructure and higher current spending. But since fiscal revenues climbed even more steeply, the prevailing picture shows central governments with higher primary surpluses (up from 1.7% to 2.2% of GDP as a simple average of 19 countries) and narrower overall deficits (from 1.1% to 0.3% of GDP). Alert to changes in international interest rates and to the effects of surging domestic demand and rising fuel prices, many countries' monetary authorities raised benchmark rates, especially in the first half of the year. In most cases, this did not slow economic activity, given the abundant liquidity. Nevertheless, inflation decreased in most of the countries and, in weighted terms, it came down from 6.1% in 2005 to 4.8% in 2006. Many countries had to deal with downward pressure on the exchange rate because of large inflows of foreign currency generated by stronger export prices or remittances.
The 2004 edition of Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy, which reviews the past year and looks at trends in 2005, is divided into six chapters. Chapter I examines recent developments in the world economy, particularly the major changes occurring in the structure of international trade and financial flows and their implications for the Latin American and Caribbean countries. Chapter II analyses the international negotiations taking place within the framework of the World Trade Organization (WTO). These multilateral negotiations have yet to result in the anticipated convergence, although the participants have shaken off the discouragement that came with the frustrated expectations of Doha and the failure of Cancún, when the original 2005 deadline for the talks' conclusion was pushed back. The chapter gives an account of the negotiations on the main topics under consideration. It also assesses the potential for the success of this process, in which the countries of the region have maintained an increasingly active presence as exemplified by Brazil's leading role in the establishment of the Group of Twenty (G-20). Chapter III looks at the status of regional integration efforts at this critical juncture, as a number of the region's countries become more actively engaged in North-South negotiations with the United States and the European Union. This situation underscores the need to harmonize the trade agenda's different levels and highlights the classic challenges of subregional integration, i.e., how to go about strengthening the institutional structure for integration, harmonizing disciplines, ensuring macroeconomic coordination and dealing with asymmetries. Chapter IV discusses protectionist trends in the world economy and especially in developed countries. The analysis covers the pressures being exerted on China's textiles sector, the main agricultural issues and the favourable rulings secured by some developing countries through the Dispute Settlement Body of WTO. Chapter V considers the strategic aspects of economic and trade relations between China and Latin America and the Caribbean, particularly South America. China has become a major actor in world markets for goods, services and capital and is becoming a valuable strategic ally for the Latin American and Caribbean countries in trade-related matters and negotiations. This chapter reviews the formidable network of trade and investment agreements that has grown up between South America and China, which is engendering expectations of a new type of relationship between the two. Chapter VI provides a Latin American and Caribbean perspective on the complex links that have developed among trade, security and transport as security measures are tightened in the wake of terrorist attacks in the United States and Europe.
This annual publication, one of the most important of ECLAC, includes official country figures up to November 30th, and an analysis of developments in the region's economy in 2005 and projections for 2006. The Latin American and Caribbean economy grew by 4.3% in 2005, which represents the third consecutive year of growth in the region. Per capita GDP is estimated to have risen by about 3%. Unemployment rate fell from 10.3% in 2004 to 9.3% in 2005 and poverty indices decreased from 44% in 2002 to 40.6% in 2005. The performance of the domestic demand and the expansion of 3.3% of the world economy in 2005, contributed to these results. For 2006, GDP growth for Latin America and the Caribbean is projected to come in at about 4.1%; this rate would be high enough to bring about an annual average growth rate above 4% during 2003-2006 and an accumulated growth of 11% in per capita GDP. However auspicious, it can not be ignored the fact that the region is growing at lower rates than developing countries as a whole, whose GDP is increasing at an average rate of 5.7%, for the period 2003-2006. Latin American and Caribbean sub-regions show distinctive behaviours, being Southern Cone and the Andean Community countries those who register higher growth. Venezuela (9%, Argentina (8.6%), Uruguay (6%), Chile (6%), Peru (6%) and Panama (6%) posted the highest growth rates in the region. ECLAC highlights as a distinctive characteristic of this period of growth the increasing surplus in the current account balance of the balance of payments, fact without precedents in the economic history of the region in the last half century. In 2005, the balance of the current account will be positive and equivalent to 1.3% of GDP (0.9% in 2004 and 0.5% in 2003), presenting, however, differences among sub-regions. The improvement in the terms of trade and the migrants transfers help to explain the evolution of the current account. The world economic growth and the increasing participation of China, India and other Asian economies, improved the terms of trade of South American countries (31% increase between 2005 and the 1990 decade), and, to a lesser extent Mexico (22% increase in the same period). Although in regional terms investment increased in 2005, its levels are still below the ones recorded in 1998. Growing at higher rates, an indispensable requisite to faster reduce the unemployment rate, demands an important increase in the investment rate. The governments of the region are taking advantage of the favourable conjuncture to improve fiscal accounts. As fiscal revenues increase, the surplus is being used to reduce public debt, which is seen by ECLAC as a positive sign. Although the public debt/ GDP ratio is still high in many countries, its decrease leads to a lower external vulnerability of the region, with the exception of some Caribbean countries. Sustained growth in the past three years starts to impact positively in the labour markets, contributing, however in a very recent manner, to alleviate the difficult social situation of Latin America and the Caribbean. The rise in employment combined with a lower dynamism in the supply of labour force, allows for the reduction of the unemployment rate in a context of an increase of formal employment in the region. The Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean is an annual ECLAC publication prepared by the Economic Development Division in cooperation with the Statistics and Economic Projections Division, the Commission's sub-regional headquarters in Mexico City and Port of Spain and the ECLAC offices in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Uruguay. The report also reflects the valuable input received from the central banks and national statistical offices of the countries of the region, which provide the statistical information that serves as a basis for its preparation.
The 2002-2003 edition of the Social panorama of Latin America explores issues related to many of the Millennium Development Goals. Three of the five chapters (on poverty, hunger and gender inequality) assess how likely it is that the countries of the region will succeed in meeting the targets in these areas agreed upon by the States Members of the United Nations for 2015. One of the chapters that refers to the Millennium Development Goals deals with hunger and food insecurity. This chapter, which was produced in collaboration with the World Food Programme, provides information on the scale, trends and main causes of child malnutrition and undernourishment in 24 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. The chapter on poverty includes figures for Latin American countries in 2001 and 2002, together with estimates for the region as a whole for 2003. This chapter points out that the poverty reduction process has been at a standstill since 1997, but it also notes that many countries may still manage to halve their extreme poverty rates by 2015. The chapter on gender indicates that poverty in Latin America is more widespread among women than men and that most indigent households are headed by women. Moreover, if it were not for the financial contribution made by women, poverty would increase by at least 10 percentage points in most of the countries. The discussion also deals with other disadvantages suffered by women, such as those linked to the lack of social recognition, unpaid domestic work, the slow pace of progress in their involvement in politics (particularly in decision-making positions), higher rates of unemployment and wage discrimination. The chapter on social expenditure furnishes information on 18 Latin American countries and analyses trends in social spending over the last decade. The impact on social expenditure of the economic slowdown that began in 1998 is discussed, and the point is made that the higher priority assigned to public social expenditure (measured as a percentage of GDP) avoided what could have been a greater reduction of per capita GDP. The final chapter examines labour policy and singles out some interesting initiatives aimed at combating unemployment, poor job quality and underemployment. Information supplied by the countries' ministries of labour serves as a basis for an analysis of cross-country differences in terms of legal working age, minimum wage levels, types of contracts and the right to form labour unions and to strike. It is further noted that, despite some progress in labour legislation, there are still serious problems with the enforcement of existing laws and regulations. The section on the international social agenda summarizes the main points agreed upon at the World Summit on Sustainable Development (Johannesburg, South Africa, August-September 2002), known informally as Rio+10.
This document contains an analysis of and statistics on the economic performance of the region as a whole and of individual Latin American and Caribbean countries in 2003. As predicted by ECLAC in its midyear projections, the economy of Latin America and the Caribbean has grown by 1.5% in 2003. In contrast, the region's per capita GDP remained flat at 1.5% below the 1997 level. The lowest point of the cycle came in the first quarter of 2002, after which the economy began to make a mild recovery. The regional economy is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2004, leaving behind the lost" six-year period that went before, and gradually entering into an expansionary cycle. For the first time since 1997, there is no Latin American economy for which negative growth is projected. This brighter outlook is in part a reflection of the more favourable international environment. The reduction in sovereign risk ratings from their peak levels of September-October 2002, the improvement in raw material prices, the expansion of tourism and the beginnings of an upswing in non-oil exports to the United States are the main positive impulses coming from the international economy. The stronger domestic positions achieved by the countries of the region are also significant, however. After six years of turbulence, most of the countries are emerging with fiscal and monetary policies well in hand and with more competitive exchange rates; even the economies that were overtaken by severe crises have already started to pick up. The six years of negative per capita growth caused social damage that will take time to reverse. There are 20 million more poor Latin Americans in 2003 than there were in 1997. Unemployment (currently 10.7%) has increased by two percentage points during this period. It appears that the projected growth cycle will be stronger in those countries that have managed to reconcile improved economic governance with better political governance and weaker in those where the domestic political situation exhibits greater vulnerability. On the external front, the recovery of the world economy suffers from disequilibria that will have to be addressed primarily by the more developed economies. The Preliminary Overview is prepared every year by ECLAC's Economic Development Division in collaboration with the Statistics and Economic Projections Division, the ECLAC sub-regional offices in Mexico City and Port-of-Spain, and the ECLAC national offices in Bogota, Brasilia and Buenos Aires. It draws on statistical material provided by central banks and statistical offices of the countries in the region."
Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to Latin America and the Caribbean dwindled for the second year in a row in 2001, and preliminary data for 2002 show no signs of a recovery. This trend was observed in both greenfield investment and mergers, acquisitions and privatizations. The investments announced by transnational corporations (TNCs) for the coming years remain concentrated in the service and infrastructure sectors. This indicates that the region has continued to strengthen its links with the incipient networks being established in service provision at the global level. This development contrasts with the Latin American economies' gradual disengagement from international production systems led by TNCs in the manufacturing sector. This combination of trends has been most evident in the South American countries. In addition to providing an overview of current FDI trends in Latin America and the Caribbean, this publication presents in-depth analyses of investment flows to Argentina both before and after the introduction of economic reforms, as a sample analysis of a recipient country; of the European Union as an international investor region; and of the hydrocarbons sector as a branch of activity that clearly illustrates the role of sectoral reform in attracting FDI.