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This paper aims to detail Frisch's choice of setting the accelerator principle at the core of his impulse-propagation model (1933a), referred to as the "rocking horse model." The innovative aspects of this model rest not only on the rise of macrodynamics regarding the equilibrium concept but also on the reformulation of business cycles in terms of production of capital goods. This is a deliberate choice, which relies on his work on business cycles started in 1927, and can be obviously traced back to his debate with John Maurice Clark and the American Institutionalists, but relies more deeply on a specific appropriation of Norwegian approach to this principle.

Econometricians have from the start considered historical knowledge of their own discipline as reflexive knowledge useful for delineating their discipline, that is, for setting its disciplinary boundaries with respect to its aims, its methods, and its scientific values. As such, the histories written by econometricians reflect the scientific image of their discipline in a given period. Each image of a period is drawn by denominating forerunners and founding fathers and uses the language of the dominant philosophy of science of that day.
At the end of the nineteenth century, a scientific theory had to be mathematical; in the interbellum the image of science was that of logical positivism. In the 1970s and 1980s the dominant views were those of Karl Popper, Imre Lakatos, and Thomas Kuhn. Currently the scientific image in econometrics is the one of the Stanford school (Nancy Cartwright, Ian Hacking, and Patrick Suppes).

This essay focuses on the early years of panel data econometrics and two seminal papers by Yair Mundlak (1961) and Pietro Balestra and Marc Nerlove (1966). The issue of latent individual heterogeneity was identified as a central problem. One main ambition was to get a clear understanding of how differences in behavior across individuals and/or through time could and should be modeled. Another main aspect was the assumed inherent dynamic pattern of economic behavior, which requires the use of specific models and data collection. These articles attempted to build relevant models and statistical methods, mainly based on the distinction between fixed effects (analysis of covariance) and random effects. They brought back identification issues in the context of estimating a production function of sixty-six farms in Israel for 1954–58 (Mundlak 1961) and the demand for natural gas in the residential and commercial market of thirty-six U.S. states observed for 1957–62 (Balestra and Nerlove 1966).

The title hints at the attention given to the lack of probability considerations in the econometric work of the recognized pioneer of econometrics, Ragnar Frisch. Clues to a better understanding of his position may be found in his comprehensive archive and correspondence. This essay gives a brief overview of Frisch's scientific archive and exhibits from his search for econometric methods. It also sets out a selection of letters exchanged between Frisch and other leading members of the Econometric Society. Our contention is that Frisch's role in the history of econometrics has not been fully appreciated owing to insufficient access to sources.

Abstract
The 2023 HOPE conference aimed to understand the interrelationships between the Second World War and economics. Examining this back-and-forth means examining the transformative effect of the war on the content and status of economics but also symmetrically examining the role played by economics and economists in the conduct of the Second World War.

The golden age of road demand modeling began in the 1950s and flourished in the 1960s in the face of major road construction needs. These macro models, as well as the econometrics and the data to be processed, were provided mainly by engineers. A division of tasks can be observed between the engineers in charge of estimating the flows within the network and the transport economists in charge of managing these flows once they are on the road network. Yet the inability to explain their decision-making processes and individual drives gave some room to economists to introduce economic analysis, so as to better understand individual or collective decisions between transport alternatives. Economists, in particular Daniel McFadden, began to offer methods to improve the measure of utility linked to transport and to inform the engineering approach. This paper explores the challenges to the boundaries between economics and engineering in road demand analysis.

the golden age of road demand modelling began in the 1950s and flourished in the 1960s in the face of major road construction needs. These macro-models as well as the economies and the data to be processed, were maintained by investors. A division of tasks can be observed between the users in charge of estimating the flows within the network, and the transport economists in charge of managing these flows that are on the road network. Yet the inability to explain their decision-making processes and individual drives some room to introduce this economic analysis, so as to better understand individual or collective decisions between transport alternatives. Economists, in particular McFadden, began to offer methods to improve the measure of utility linked to transport, and to inform the engineering approach. This paper explains the challenges to the boundaries between economics and engineering in road demand analysis. ; The golden age of road demand modeling began in the 1950s and flourished in the 1960s in the face of major road construction needs. These macro-models as well as the econometrics and the data to be processed, were mainly provided by engineers. A division of tasks can be observed between the engineers in charge of estimating the flows within the network, and the transport economists in charge of managing these flows once they are on the road network. Yet the inability to explain their decision-making processes and individual drives gave some room to economists to introduce economic analysis, so as to better understand individual or collective decisions between transport alternatives. Economists, in particular McFadden, began to offer methods to improve the measure of utility linked to transport, and to inform the engineering approach. This paper explores the challenges to the boundaries between economics and engineering in road demand analysis.

International audience ; In most transport planning studies one of the first steps is the definition of a zoning scheme with which the study area is divided and the corresponding space is disaggregated. There are no clear rules on how to carry out this operation in an optimal way, and the dominating practice is to do it based on experience, trying to mix a certain degree of within-zone homogeneity and the convenience of using administrative borders as zone limits. Firstly, this paper starts by presenting a set of quality criteria for a general zoning scheme and an algorithm that constructs an initial zoning based on a sample of geo-referenced trip extreme points and improves it in successive steps according to those criteria. This kind of zoning fits perfectly well to traffic assignment purposes. But this paper will investigate an improvement of this approach in order to give a better understanding of the mobility determinants and its externalities on the environment. In doing so, the new zone is determined not only by the trips generation and distribution but also constrained by other indicators. In our case, we have selected a combination of the following: 1/ air pollution emissions, 2/ population density, 3/ work and study density and 4/ public transport accessibility. The integration of these 4 indicators allows us not only to picture the mobility within the region and to identify at the very precise level the main zones of activities and traffic exchanges. This integration relates the picture to the land use and the clustering of the economic activities location at a very discrete level. Furthermore, it relates the density of the mobility in dense, large and economically dynamic urban area to its externalities in terms of air pollution. In order to be effective for mobility analysis and policy purposes, this kind of approach cannot only rely on the cell grid unit but a hierarchical aggregation should be set up. This aggregation allows analyses within the administrative and political boundaries but with a ...

International audience ; This paper deals with sustainable mobility in an urban context. We investigate the assessment of the impacts of the evolution of travel behaviour (travelled distance and modal choice) in terms of energy consumption and greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions at the local level. Indeed, today, the control of exhausts generated by the mobility within the urban areas is at the core of the environmental policies and the stabilisation of GHG emissions is one of the main goals of 'sustainable development'. To face this challenge in the transport sector, the national government and local authorities need a better understanding of the link between urban development choices, the operation of the different modes of transport systems, and residents and non residents' attitude, and mobility patterns at the local level.

chapter Introduction -- chapter 1 The philosophical foundations of econometrics. The axiomatic method. Utility as quantity. -- chapter 2 Examples of static and semi-static econometric theories. Monopoly, polypoly. The concept of force -- chapter 3 What is a dynamic theory? Properties of determined and indetermined systems. -- chapter 4 Examples of dynamic econometric theories. Oscillations in closed systems. The theory of crises. -- chapter 5 The creation of cycles by random shocks. Synthesis between a probabilistic point of view and the point of view of deterministic dynamic laws. -- chapter 6 Statistical construction of econometric functions. Autonomous and confluent equations. The danger of analysis of many variables. -- chapter 7 Time series techniques. Decomposition of series. Linear operations and their inversion problem. -- chapter 8 Conclusion: The significance of social and mechanical laws. Invariance and rigidity. Remarks on a philosophy of chaos.