Suchergebnisse

Der vorliegende Beitrag entwickelt international vergleichbare Indikatoren für makroökonomische Unsicherheit. Dabei wird eine Methode entwickelt, die erlaubt, Unsicherheitsmasse aus Revisionen des Bruttoinlandprodukts zu extrahieren. Das Modell wird auf Echtzeitdaten angewendet und liefert Schätzungen der makroökonomischen Unsicherheit für 39 Länder. Die internationale Dimension der Unsicherheitsdaten ermöglicht, den Einfluss von verschiedenen Arbeitnehmerschutzgesetzen auf die Auswirkungen von Unsicherheitsschocks zu untersuchen. Die empirischen Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass Unsicherheitsschocks in Ländern mit niedrigem Arbeitnehmerschutz stärker negativ und anhaltender wirken als in Ländern mit hohem Arbeitnehmerschutz. Diese empirischen Ergebnisse sind konsistent mit den theoretischen Erwartungen. Eine Erhöhung der Entlassungskosten in einem theoretischen Unsicherheitsmodell mindert die negativen Auswirkungen eines Unsicherheitsschocks. ; This paper constructs internationally consistent measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Our econometric framework extracts uncertainty from revisions in data obtained from standardized national accounts. Applying our model to post-WWII real-time data, we estimate macroeconomic uncertainty for 39 countries. The cross-country dimension of our uncertainty data allows us to study the impact of uncertainty shocks under different employment protection legislation. Our empirical findings suggest that the effects of uncertainty shocks are stronger and more persistent in countries with low employment protection compared to countries with high employment protection. These empirical findings are in line with a theoretical model under varying firing cost.

This paper constructs internationally consistent measures of macroeconomic un- certainty. Our econometric framework extracts uncertainty from revisions in data obtained from standardized national accounts. Applying our model to quarterly post-WWII real-time data, we estimate macroeconomic uncertainty for 39 coun- tries. The cross-country dimension of our uncertainty data allows us to identify the e ects of uncertainty shocks on economic activity under di erent employment pro- tection legislation. Our empirical ndings suggest that the e ects of uncertainty shocks are stronger and more persistent in countries with low employment pro- tection compared to countries with high employment protection. These empirical ndings are in line with a theoretical model under varying ring cost.

This paper constructs internationally consistent measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Our econometric framework extracts uncertainty from revisions in data obtained from standardized national accounts. Applying our model to quarterly post-WWII real-time data, we estimate macroeconomic uncertainty for 39 countries. The cross-country dimension of our uncertainty data allows us to identify the effects of uncertainty shocks on economic activity under different employment protection legislation. Our empirical findings suggest that the effects of uncertainty shocks are stronger and more persistent in countries with low employment protection compared to countries with high employment protection. These empirical findings are in line with a theoretical model under varying firing cost.

A sudden change in monetary policy happened in Switzerland on January 15th, 2015. The Swiss National Bank removed a lower exchange rate bound vis-à-vis the Euro. This unexpected change of regime induced a temporary uncertainty about future prices in foreign markets. We believe that this hampers firm investment in the short term. Using this change in monetary policy as a natural experiment and exploiting the continuous nature of a micro-level business tendency survey, we identify the source of uncertainty and disentangle first and second moment effects. We find that price uncertainty affects investment in equipment and machinery through real option effects and believe that growth option effects positively influences expenditures in research and development. We show that focusing on aggregate gross fixed capital formation masks important insights and suggest the use of disaggregated investment data to deepen our knowledge on the relationship between uncertainty and investment.

Does increased policy uncertainty dampen investment plans of firms? We provide direct evidence on this question by examining the effects of an unexpectedly accepted and farreaching referendum in Switzerland in February 2014. The vote has put several economically relevant agreements between Switzerland and its main trading partner, the European Union, at stake. Using firm-level survey data levied before and after the vote, we examine whether firms that reported to be affected by the induced policy uncertainty have revised their investment plans differently from those that did not perceive an increase in uncertainty. We find strong evidence that an increase in policy uncertainty does lead firms to reduce their investment plans. As theoretically expected, these effects are concentrated among those firms that view their investments as largely irreversible. Moreover, the uncertainty shock mainly dampened firms' plans to extend their production capacities, while other types of investment such as replacement investment were not affected.

Does increased policy uncertainty dampen investment plans of firms? We provide direct evidence on this question by examining the effects of an unexpectedly accepted and farreaching referendum in Switzerland in February 2014. The vote has put several economically relevant agreements between Switzerland and its main trading partner, the European Union, at stake. Using firm-level survey data levied before and after the vote, we examine whether firms that reported to be affected by the induced policy uncertainty have revised their investment plans differently from those that did not perceive an increase in uncertainty. We find strong evidence that an increase in policy uncertainty does lead firms to reduce their investment plans. As theoretically expected, these effects are concentrated among those firms that view their investments as largely irreversible. Moreover, the uncertainty shock mainly dampened firms? plans to extend their production capacities, while other types of investment such as replacement investment were not affected.

Does increased policy uncertainty dampen investment plans of firms? We provide direct evidence on this question by examining the effects of an unexpectedly accepted and farreaching referendum in Switzerland in February 2014. The vote has put several economically relevant agreements between Switzerland and its main trading partner, the European Union, at stake. Using firm-level survey data levied before and after the vote, we examine whether firms that reported to be affected by the induced policy uncertainty have revised their investment plans differently from those that did not perceive an increase in uncertainty. We find strong evidence that an increase in policy uncertainty does lead firms to reduce their investment plans. As theoretically expected, these effects are concentrated among those firms that view their investments as largely irreversible. Moreover, the uncertainty shock mainly dampened firms' plans to extend their production capacities, while other types of investment such as replacement investment were not affected.

In Switzerland a sudden policy uncertainty shock happened in February 2014 with the close and largely unexpected acceptance of a referendum aiming at limiting free movement of persons. The referendum requires Switzerland to reintroduce annual quotas for immigrants within three years. The referendum is vaguely formulated and its actual consequences are largely unknown. Yet, the vote reduced the expected future availability of qualified labour, put at stake several economically important agreements between Switzerland and the European Union, and reduced expected future domestic demand for firms. This paper uses a special survey conducted by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute to analyse the short- to medium-run expected consequences of this substantial policy uncertainty shock on firms' private fixed investment and employment plans. We find that those firms that believe that potential growth in Switzerland will deteriorate and those that report that investment uncertainty has increased are also the ones that see a significant reduction in their future investment activities and their expected employment due to the vote, so that an uncertainty effect is present. We also provide evidence that the short-term effect of policy uncertainty on investment is economically significant. ; Die knappe Annahme der Initiative gegen Masseneinwanderung im Februar 2014 führte zu einem unerwarteten Anstieg der Unsicherheit über die zukünftigen politischen Rahmenbedingen in der Schweiz. Die Initiative verpflichtet den Bundesrat zur gesetzlichen Einführung fixer Kontingente innerhalb der nächsten drei Jahre. Die weit gefasste Formulierung des Initiativtextes verhindert jedoch das Vorhersehen der genauen Umsetzung und erhöht damit den Spielraum möglicher Auswirkungen, was letztlich in einem Anstieg der Unsicherheit resultiert. Die geforderten Kontingente beschränken den Zugang Schweizer Firmen zu ausländischen Arbeitskräften und erhöhen die Gefahr eines zukünftigen Mangels an Fachkräften. Zudem sind Kontingente mit dem bestehenden Vertrag der Personenfreizügigkeit unvereinbar, bei dessen Auflösung käme es zur Kündigung aller mit der Personenfreizügigkeit verbunden bilateralen Abkommen. Die Aussicht auf die Kündigung der bilateralen Verträge erhöht die Unsicherheit über den Zugang Schweizer Unternehmen zum Binnenmarkt der Europäischen Union und senkt letztlich die Erwartungen der zukünftigen Gesamtnachfrage. In diesem Artikel untersuchen wir die kurz- bis mittelfristigen Auswirkungen der Annahme der Initiative auf Beschäftigung und Investitionen. Unsere Analysen basieren auf einer Sonderumfrage der KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle und zeigen, dass die gestiegene Unsicherheit bereits jetzt zu einer Reduktion der Investitionspläne und zukünftigen Beschäftigung führt.

In Switzerland a sudden policy uncertainty shock happened in February 2014 with the close and largely unexpected acceptance of a referendum aiming at limiting free movement of persons. The referendum requires Switzerland to reintroduce annual quotas for immigrants within three years. The referendum is vaguely formulated and its actual consequences are largely unknown. Yet, the vote reduced the expected future availability of qualified labour, put at stake several economically important agreements between Switzerland and the European Union, and reduced expected future domestic demand for firms. This paper uses a special survey conducted by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute to analyse the short- to medium-run expected consequences of this substantial policy uncertainty shock on firms' private fixed investment and employment plans. We find that those firms that believe that potential growth in Switzerland will deteriorate and those that report that investment uncertainty has increased are also the ones that see a significant reduction in their future investment activities and their expected employment due to the vote, so that an uncertainty effect is present. We also provide evidence that the short-term effect of policy uncertainty on investment is economically significant. Die knappe Annahme der Initiative gegen Masseneinwanderung im Februar 2014 führte zu einem unerwarteten Anstieg der Unsicherheit über die zukünftigen politischen Rahmenbedingen in der Schweiz. Die Initiative verpflichtet den Bundesrat zur gesetzlichen Einführung fixer Kontingente innerhalb der nächsten drei Jahre. Die weit gefasste Formulierung des Initiativtextes verhindert jedoch das Vorhersehen der genauen Umsetzung und erhöht damit den Spielraum möglicher Auswirkungen, was letztlich in einem Anstieg der Unsicherheit resultiert. Die geforderten Kontingente beschränken den Zugang Schweizer Firmen zu ausländischen Arbeitskräften und erhöhen die Gefahr eines zukünftigen Mangels an Fachkräften. Zudem sind Kontingente mit dem bestehenden Vertrag der Personenfreizügigkeit unvereinbar, bei dessen Auflösung käme es zur Kündigung aller mit der Personenfreizügigkeit verbunden bilateralen Abkommen. Die Aussicht auf die Kündigung der bilateralen Verträge erhöht die Unsicherheit über den Zugang Schweizer Unternehmen zum Binnenmarkt der Europäischen Union und senkt letztlich die Erwartungen der zukünftigen Gesamtnachfrage. In diesem Artikel untersuchen wir die kurz- bis mittelfristigen Auswirkungen der Annahme der Initiative auf Beschäftigung und Investitionen. Unsere Analysen basieren auf einer Sonderumfrage der KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle und zeigen, dass die gestiegene Unsicherheit bereits jetzt zu einer Reduktion der Investitionspläne und zukünftigen Beschäftigung führt.