Suchergebnisse

This doctoral dissertation represents a collection of three inter-related scientific papers that investigate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Croatia. The main goal of this dissertation is to extend the existing empirical literature on the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Croatia in two ways. First, all research questions in this dissertation are contextualized in a small open economy analytical framework. Previous research on the effects of fiscal policy in Croatia has overlooked the importance of the effects of the openness of the economy on the size of fiscal multipliers. Secondly, this dissertation aims to show that calibrated small-scale small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models could be used for simulations of the effects of fiscal policy in Croatia and contribute to the understanding of various channels and complex relations between fiscal and macroeconomic variables. Empirical results, based on structural vector autoregressive models (SVAR), suggest that the effects of fiscal policy in Croatia are Keynesian in nature. A rise of government consumption has positive effects on GDP, private aggregate demand, private consumption, employment and prices. On the other hand, a rise in net indirect taxes has negative effects on private aggregate demand and private consumption. However, results also suggest that the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Croatia is constrained by the openness of the economy and the level of public debt as both factors reduce the size of fiscal multiplier. Also, increased public consumption deepens the trade deficit, which puts pressure on external imbalances. Thus, in academic and public debates on the role and possibilities of fiscal policy in Croatia, one should always keep in mind that Croatia is a small, open and relatively highly indebted economy. Such characteristics of the economy put notable challenges for fiscal policy makers in Croatia. ; Ova doktorska disertacija predstavlja skup od tri povezana objavljena znanstvena članka u kojima se istražuju makroekonomski učinci fiskalne politike u Hrvatskoj. Osnovni cilj ove disertacije je proširiti i dopuniti postojeću empirijsku literaturu o makroekonomskim učincima fiskalne politike u Hrvatskoj na dva načina. Prvo, sva istraživačka pitanja u ovoj disertaciji su kontekstualizirana u analitičkom okviru malog otvorenog gospodarstva. Prethodna istraživanja o učincima fiskalne politike u Hrvatskoj su previdjela važnost učinaka otvorenosti ekonomije na veličinu fiskalnih multiplikatora. Drugo, ova disertacija pokazuje da se kalibrirani novo-kejneizijanski dinamički stohastički modeli (DSGE) malog otvorenog gospodarstva mogu koristiti za simulaciju učinaka fiskalne politike u Hrvatskoj i doprinijeti boljem razumijevanju različitih kanala i kompleksnih odnosa fiskalnih i makroekonomskih varijabli. Empirijski rezultati, temeljeni na strukturnim vektorskim autoregresivnim modelima (SVAR), pokazuju da su učinci fiskalne politike u Hrvatskoj kejnezijanskog duha. Povećanje državne potrošnje ima pozitivan učinak na BDP, privatnu agregatnu potražnju, privatnu potrošnju, zaposlenost i cijene. S druge strane, povećanje neto indirektnih poreza ima negativan učinak na privatnu agregatnu potražnju i privatnu potrošnju. Međutim, rezultati također pokazuju da je učinkovitost fiskalne politike u Hrvatskoj ograničena otvorenošću ekonomije i razinom javnog duga budući da oba faktora smanjuju veličinu fiskalnog multiplikatora. Također, povećanje državne potrošnje produbljuje trgovinski deficit, što stvara pritisak na vanjske neravnoteže. Zato bi sudionici akademskih i javnih rasprava o ulozi i mogućnostima fiskalne politike u Hrvatskoj uvijek trebali imati na umu da je Hrvatska malo, otvoreno i relativno visoko zaduženo gospodarstvo. Takva obilježja gospodarstva pred nositelje fiskalne politike u Hrvatskoj stavljaju značajne izazove.

This doctoral dissertation represents a collection of three inter-related scientific papers that investigate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Croatia. The main goal of this dissertation is to extend the existing empirical literature on the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Croatia in two ways. First, all research questions in this dissertation are contextualized in a small open economy analytical framework. Previous research on the effects of fiscal policy in Croatia has overlooked the importance of the effects of the openness of the economy on the size of fiscal multipliers. Secondly, this dissertation aims to show that calibrated small-scale small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models could be used for simulations of the effects of fiscal policy in Croatia and contribute to the understanding of various channels and complex relations between fiscal and macroeconomic variables. Empirical results, based on structural vector autoregressive models (SVAR), suggest that the effects of fiscal policy in Croatia are Keynesian in nature. A rise of government consumption has positive effects on GDP, private aggregate demand, private consumption, employment and prices. On the other hand, a rise in net indirect taxes has negative effects on private aggregate demand and private consumption. However, results also suggest that the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Croatia is constrained by the openness of the economy and the level of public debt as both factors reduce the size of fiscal multiplier. Also, increased public consumption deepens the trade deficit, which puts pressure on external imbalances. Thus, in academic and public debates on the role and possibilities of fiscal policy in Croatia, one should always keep in mind that Croatia is a small, open and relatively highly indebted economy. Such characteristics of the economy put notable challenges for fiscal policy makers in Croatia. ; Ova doktorska disertacija predstavlja skup od tri povezana objavljena ...

In this paper we calibrate a small open economy (SOE) New-Keynesian DSGE model for the Croatian economy. The main focus of the paper is on the eJects of fiscal policy, more precisely government consumption, on employment, output, inflation and trade balance. After we analyse the model impulse responses we confront these results with the empirical results of VAR model. Our results indicate that the presented DSGE model can be a useful starting point and a toolkit in fiscal policy analysis in Croatia as estimated impulse responses from VAR model mostly match impulse responses from the calibrated model. Also, empirical results indicate that fiscal policy has a significant eJect on macroeconomic developments in Croatia. Thus, it is a responsibility of fiscal policy makers to prudently use and adjust fiscal instruments in such a way that fiscal policy can always have a counter-cyclical, stabilizing eJect on Croatian economy. ; U ovom se radu kalibrira novo-kejnezijanski DSGE model male otvorene ekonomije za hrvatsko gospodarstvo. Fokus rada je na učincima fiskalne politike, tj. državne potrošnje, na zaposlenost, dohodak, inflaciju i trgovinsku bilancu. Nakon analize funkcija impulsnog odziva iz teorijskog modela one se uspoređuju s empirijskim rezultatima VAR modela. Rezultati pokazuju kako prezentirani DSGE model može služiti kao polazište i koristan alat u analizi učinaka fiskalne politike u Hrvatskoj budući da funkcije impulsnog odziva iz VAR modela većinom odgovaraju onima iz kalibriranog modela. Također, empirijski rezultati pokazuju da fiskalna politika ima značajan utjecaj na makroekonomska kretanja u Hrvatskoj. Zato je pred nositeljima fiskalne politike odgovornost da fiskalne instrumente koriste i prilagođavaju na način da fiskalna politika može uvijek imati anti-cikliški, stabilizirajusi učinak na hrvatsko gospodarstvo.

In this paper we analyze different aspects of Croatian path to the monetary union and its current readiness to join the ERM 2 mechanism. Firstly, we present and discuss costs and benefits of euro adoption. Second, we use descriptive analysis to determine Croatia's current position in relation to convergence criteria and discuss the possible timing of Croatian accession to the ERM 2. Thirdly, we analyze experiences of two NMS peers, Slovenia and Slovakia, before and after joining ERM 2 and highlight key lessons for Croatian policy makers. As Croatia is highly euroised (high FX risk) small and open economy, strongly integrated in EA trade and financial chains, with limited possibilities of monetary policy, the benefits of euro adoption would outweigh all commonly mentioned costs. Regarding convergence criteria, the biggest obstacle of Croatian access to ERM 2 mechanism is the level of public debt but recent developments and adjustments of SGP suggest that Croatia could satisfy the adjusted fiscal criteria already in several years. Experiences of Slovenia and Slovakia show that determined steps towards the euro (primarily ERM 2) can serve as an important policy credibility anchor and put a positive pressure on policy makers to preserve internal and external stability of the country and implement various structural reforms in order to achieve convergence with the euro zone members. ; U ovom radu autori analiziraju različite aspekte pristupanja Hrvatske europodručju i ocjenjuju trenutačnu spremnost Hrvatske za ulazak u tečajni mehanizam ERM 2. Prvo, u radu se sažeto prikazuju potencijalni troškovi i koristi od uvođenja eura kao nacionalne valute. Drugo, koristeći metodu deskriptivne statistike, autori utvrđuju trenutačnu poziciju Hrvatske u odnosu na konvergencijske kriterije te određuju potencijalni (realističan) trenutak ulaska u tečajni mehanizam ERM 2. Treće, autori analiziraju iskustva usporedivih zemalja članica Nove Europe, Slovenije i Slovačke, prije i nakon ulaska u ERM 2 te ističu ključne pouke za nositelje politike u Hrvatskoj. Budući da je Hrvatska visoko euroizirana, mala, otvorena ekonomija, snažno integrirana u trgovinske i financijske tokove europodručja te da već ima ograničen suverenitet monetarne politike, u radu se zaključuje kako potencijalne prednosti uvođenja eura nadmašuju sve potencijalne troškove. Što se tiče konvergencijskih kriterija, najveća prepreka ulasku u ERM 2 predstavlja visoka razina javnog duga, ali nedavne izmjene Pakta o stabilnosti i rastu te uvođenje novog kriterija duga omogućavaju Hrvatskoj da zadovolji i novi kriterij duga u sljedećih nekoliko godina. Iskustva Slovenije i Slovačke pokazuju da odlučan put prema euru (prvenstveno boravak u ERM 2) može poslužiti kao važno sidro kredibiliteta ekonomske politike i potaknuti nositelje politike da očuvaju internu i eksternu stabilnost zemlje te implementiraju različite strukturne reforme kako bi ostvarili što veći stupanj konvergencije prema zemljama euro područja.

When estimating the size of fiscal multipliers one has to take into consideration various structural characteristics of economies which, directly or indirectly, affect the transmission from government stimuli to economic activity. Thus, in this paper we use a 'bucket approach' to determination of the size of fiscal multipliers, which enables us to make presumptions on the size of fiscal multipliers, given the structural characteristics of selected Western Balkan economies – Croatia, Slovenia and Serbia. After this 'non-empirical' approach we use structural VAR framework to test our hypothesis derived from the 'bucket approach'. Our results confirmed the hypotheses on the relative size of the multipliers between these three peer countries, with Croatia having the highest spending multiplier and Slovenia the lowest one.

This paper analyses determinants of public sector efficiency in 15 Central Eastern and South Eastern European (CESEE) countries. Using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and panel Tobit regressions we analyse the efficiency of public expenditure on health care, education, and public administration. This paper represents the first analysis of public expenditure efficiency for this region. The countries in the sample share a similar economic transition background and transition related challenges in terms of government size and efficiency. In this paper we use input-oriented DEA to calculate efficiency scores and apply Tobit regressions to identify the determinants of public expenditure efficiency for each category. According to our results, the health care sector shows the most room for improvement. With an average input efficiency score of 0.87, the analysed countries could attain the same output with an average 13% fewer resources. The results show that Bulgaria, Estonia, and Slovenia are the most efficient, whilst Serbia, Croatia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina are the worst performers. GDP per capita has a positive effect on efficiency in the health care sector, the rising share of the elderly population reduces the efficiency coefficient, whilst a higher level of education has a positive effect on the efficiency score, as recorded in earlier studies. In education, our results suggest that countries waste an average 10% of their resources. The Czech Republic, Estonia, Poland, Romania, and the Slovak Republic represent the frontier, while the worst performers are Slovenia, Lithuania, and Latvia. The results show that GDP per capita has a positive effect on efficiency in the education sector, whilst a higher unemployment rate leads to lower efficiency scores. Regarding public administration, the average efficiency score of the analysed countries is 0.9, which indicates that countries are wasting an average 10% of their resources. Estonia and Romania are fully efficient, whilst Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Hungary are the most inefficient countries in the sample. As expected, GDP per capita and institutional quality have positive effects on the efficiency of public administration. ; Rad se bavi analizom determinanata učinkovitosti javnoga sektora u 15 zemalja središnje i jugoistočne Europe. Analizom omeđivanja podataka (AOMP) i Tobitovom regresijom ocjenjuje se učinkovitost javnih rashoda u sustavu zdravstva, javne uprave i obrazovanja. To je prva znanstvena analiza učinkovitosti javnih rashoda u navedenim državama koje dijele iskustvo ekonomske tranzicije te slične izazove u vezi s veličinom i učinkovitosti javnog sektora. AOMP usmjeren na inpute korišten je za izračun koeficijenata učinkovitosti, dok se Tobitovom regresijom identificiraju determinante učinkovitosti javnih rashoda za svaku od analiziranih kategorija.Prema dobivenim rezultatima, u zdravstvenom sektoru postoji najviše prostora za poboljšanje. Prosječna vrijednost učinkovitosti inputa od 0,87 upućuje na to da bi analizirane države mogle ostvariti isti output uz prosječno 13 % manje resursa. Najučinkovitije su države Bugarska, Estonija i Slovenija, dok su Srbija, Hrvatska i Bosna i Hercegovina ostvarile najlošije rezultate. BDP po stanovniku pozitivno utječe na učinkovitost u zdravstvenom sektoru, dok rastući udio starije populacije umanjuje koeficijent učinkovitosti. Viša razina obrazovanja također pozitivno utječe na učinkovitost, što je u skladu s prethodnim istraživanjima. Rezultati pokazuju prosječan gubitak resursa od 10 % u obrazovnom sektoru. Češka, Estonija, Poljska, Rumunjska i Slovačka nalaze se na granici učinkovitosti, dok su najlošije rezultate ostvarile Slovenija, Latvija i Litva. BDP po stanovniku ima pozitivan učinak na učinkovitost obrazovnog sektora, dok veća stopa nezaposlenosti umanjuje njegovu učinkovitost. U sektoru javne uprave prosječna vrijednost učinkovitosti iznosi 0,9, što znači da analizirane države gube u prosjeku 10 % svojih resursa. Estonija i Rumunjska potpuno su učinkovite, dok su Crna Gora, Bosna i Hercegovina i Mađarska ostvarile najnižu razinu učinkovitosti. U skladu s očekivanjima, BDP po stanovniku i kvaliteta institucija pozitivno utječu na učinkovitost javne uprave.

In this paper we empirically test the importance and the effects of labour taxation on employment in Croatia. The motivation for this analytical inquiry stems from the fact that Croatia is one of the countries with the lowest employment rates in the European Union while at the same time it has relatively high labour tax burden compared to peers and ranks among the countries with most negative perceived effects of taxation on incentives to work. As fiscal policy is the main economic policy instrument in Croatia, it is important to analyse whether fiscal measures can directly affect labour market performance. Our results show that tax policy has significant effect on employment in Croatia which has important policy implications.

In this paper we empirically test the importance and the effects of labour taxation on employment in Croatia. The motivation for this analytical inquiry stems from the fact that Croatia is one of the countries with the lowest employment rates in the European Union while at the same time it has relatively high labour tax burden compared to peers and ranks among the countries with most negative perceived effects of taxation on incentives to work. As fiscal policy is the main economic policy instrument in Croatia, it is important to analyse whether fiscal measures can directly affect labour market performance. Our results show that tax policy has significant effect on employment in Croatia which has important policy implications.