The objective of this paper is to predict Indonesia's inflation rate in 2009 by employing BOX-JENKINS (ARIMA) model. The prediction of inflation rate is very important since the inflation affects us in economy aspect. Moreover, by knowing the approximate inflation in the future will help companies to plan the operational cost better. It also will help the government to anticipate the predicted inflation by making good policies, thus the prosperity of Indonesia people will be achieved. AR (2) is the best ARIMA model that we obtain. By employing AR (2), we predict the inflation rate in 2009 is 10.48%. This number is not surprising since inflation rate in Indonesia is mainly affected by exchange rate. As we know that the global crisis will start recovering in early 2010 (Yearly Bank Indonesia Report, 2008). The impact is that exchange rate pressure will be still high in 2009, it is due to non-optimal export and limited foreign fund's inflow.
FDI is one of the factors that encourage the growth of the economy, especially for developing countries. Indonesia has prepared an economic policy package and a taxation policy for booting the investments, including FDI. This paper investigates whether the FDI is one of the essential instruments to improve the growth of Indonesia economy. Multiple regression with GDP as a dependent variable; and FDI, Trade, Government Expenditure, and Inflation as independent variables are employed. The data is from 1985 up to 2015 period. FDI does not have any impact on GDP, while others variables influence the growth of the economy. It suggests that the goals of FDI, namely technology transfer, development of human resources, are not achieved entirely. It implies that the package of economic policy and taxation are not enough for FDI to have the impact on GDP, but others factors, such as wage rate, labor skills, transport and infrastructure, and property rights, must be developed.
Introduction -- The foreign exchange intervention -- The bid-ask spread: the market microstructure perspective -- The empirical decomposition of the bid-ask spread for exchange rates -- Government intervention on the spread -- References -- Appendices.
Asian and European crises were witnesses of banks' vulnerable due to market risks. The Basel Committee requires an internal risk assessment applying Value at Risk (VaR). However, a replacement of VaR with Expected Shortfall (ES) has been suggested recently due to an excessive losses produced by banks which are beyond VaR estimations. This paper studied the risk of Indonesian banks applying a historical expected shortfall. We used JIBOR (overnight) from 2009 – 2012 as a proxy of market risk. The assessment of a historical expected shortfall of the net position of 27 banks accounts for October 2012 showed that state owned banks placed among the five highest value of each component (net position) in the balance sheet, namely placement to Bank Indonesia, interbank placement, spot and derivatives claims, securities, and loans. It means that the state owned banks had the highest risk and were the most aggressive among Indonesian banks. It might be due to carrying some of the government's program, such as small enterprise loans. Keywords: expected shortfall, value at risk, banks, risk. JEL Classification: D81, G210 ; Asian and European crises were witnesses of banks' vulnerable due to market risks. The Basel Committee requires an internal risk assessment applying Value at Risk (VaR). However, a replacement of VaR with Expected Shortfall (ES) has been suggested recently due to an excessive losses produced by banks which are beyond VaR estimations. This paper studied the risk of Indonesian banks applying a historical expected shortfall. We used JIBOR (overnight) from 2009 – 2012 as a proxy of market risk. The assessment of a historical expected shortfall of the net position of 27 banks accounts for October 2012 showed that state owned banks placed among the five highest value of each component (net position) in the balance sheet, namely placement to Bank Indonesia, interbank placement, spot and derivatives claims, securities, and loans. It means that the state owned banks had the highest risk and were the most aggressive among Indonesian banks. It might be due to carrying some of the government's program, such as small enterprise loans. Keywords: expected shortfall, value at risk, banks, risk. JEL Classification: D81, G210
This paper investigates the impact of foreign fund' flow on the Indonesian stock index incorporating other variables, namely the international stock market, gold price, foreign exchange rate, and the oil price. GJR-GARCH (1,1) model is used to analyze daily time-series data on IDX, foreign fund flows, the S&P 500, and gold, currency, and oil prices from 2014 to 2019. There is an evidence of leverage effect. It means that there is an asymmetric news impact on the conditional variances. Currency and oil prices are the only variables to have an impact on the Indonesian stock market index, while the rest of the variables do not influence the index. The government may provide infrastructures to attract foreign investors. At the same time, the government has to issue the policy that will protect the economy from stock market shocks. Finally, investors may include gold in their portfolio to diversify their investments. JEL Classification: G120, G10, G40
Purpose of the study: Financial literacy has become one of the important policies of the Indonesia government. The improvement of financial literacy is crucial for a more stable financial system and reduces financial fragility. Our research is to examine levels of financial literacy, to identify determinants of financial literacy and to investigate whether knowledge is followed by financial practices. Methodology: This study employs the survey method, which includes questionnaires sent to academicians in Indonesia. Multiple regression analysis (MRA)is used to empirically analyze the relationship between financial literacy and its application in financial decision-making. Main findings: The respondents are financially literate with the same level of financial literacy. Socio-demographic characteristics influence significantly the financial literacy and the capability in cash flow management of the respondents. Further, there is a linkage between the knowledge of financial products (financial literacy) and its application in financial decision-making. Application: It implies that the knowledge about the financial product is very important for creating a high financial literacy society. The Indonesia government needs to run more seriously one of the pillars in the National Strategy for Financial Inclusion through the Ministry of Education. Novelty: Most of the previous studies focused on conventional products, while this study includes both conventional and Islamic financial products. Further, we also consider the application of Islamic (shari'ah) financial practices. We investigate the impact of financial literacy with socio-demographic characteristics on its application in financial decision-making.
Purpose of the study: Financial literacy has become one of the important policies of the Indonesia government. The improvement of financial literacy is crucial for a more stable financial system and reduces financial fragility. Our research is to examine levels of financial literacy, to identify determinants of financial literacy and to investigate whether knowledge is followed by financial practices. Methodology: This study employs the survey method, which includes questionnaires sent to academicians in Indonesia. Multiple regression analysis (MRA)is used to empirically analyze the relationship between financial literacy and its application in financial decision-making. Main findings: The respondents are financially literate with the same level of financial literacy. Socio-demographic characteristics influence significantly the financial literacy and the capability in cash flow management of the respondents. Further, there is a linkage between the knowledge of financial products (financial literacy) and its application in financial decision-making. Application: It implies that the knowledge about the financial product is very important for creating a high financial literacy society. The Indonesia government needs to run more seriously one of the pillars in the National Strategy for Financial Inclusion through the Ministry of Education. Novelty: Most of the previous studies focused on conventional products, while this study includes both conventional and Islamic financial products. Further, we also consider the application of Islamic (shari'ah) financial practices. We investigate the impact of financial literacy with socio-demographic characteristics on its application in financial decision-making.
The purpose of this study is to investigate the Impact of GTL (Green Transformation Leadership) on Environmental Knowledge Learning and WPB (Work pro-environmental Behaviors) through the mediating role of green self-efficacy and green creativity. The study has adopted a survey-based approach where data were collected from 279 employees working in hotel industry of Saudi Arabia using structured questionnaires and validated scales. Results show that GTL directly impacts EKL and WPB, suggesting it promotes the acquisition of environmental knowledge and skills, and GTL encourages employees to participate in friendly environmental behaviors in the workplace. This result also found, GSE and GC mediate the relationship between GTL and both EKL and WPB. This suggests that GTL not only directly influences EKL and WPB but also indirectly through its impact on GSE and GC. Future studies could discover the long-term effects of leadership on environmental sustainability, examine the role of leadership in fostering innovation and adaptation to environmental challenges, and examine the influence of different leadership styles on specific environmental behavior.
