Suchergebnisse

This thesis contains a selection of post-doctoral articles and is structured in two parts. The first part analyses the policies of climate change and their impacts on growth; the second one analyses the decarbonisation of the power mix, characterised by a high share of intermittent and renewable energies (wind and solar).Part 1: Climate Policy and GrowthThe first chapter assesses the economic consequences of the European policy on Climate-Energy. This assessment is undertaken using the NEMESIS macro-econometric model. The results of this chapter draw an integrated vision of the energy future of Europe. The conclusions are the following. First, the implementation of this European policy should have a weak cost in terms of GDP, which may even be negative depending on how revenues from carbon emissions allowances are spent by governments. Second, significant gains could be made for consumers if this spending increases their disposable incomes. Employment could also be strongly stimulated if the spending of auctions revenues reduces the cost of labour, which would also stimulate household demand and exports of new low-carbon technologies; these results would validate a win-win effect with more jobs and more quality of environment. In the end the application of the principle of solidarity in Europe would allow the Climate-Energy package to be a real opportunity for growth and employment in the EU, in particular for those countries whose GDP is below the European average, such as Romania and Poland which are also carbon-intensive economies.In the second chapter we question the assumption of endogenous growth insofar as the existence of the win-win effect in the NEMESIS model is mainly dependent on long-term effects of R&D investments. We show that the win win is in fact based on the strong assumption of non-decreasing marginal returns to knowledge in the production of innovations. Indeed, the unitary yield leads to increasing returns to scale in the economy when the final good is produced according to a ...

This thesis contains a selection of post-doctoral articles and is structured in two parts. The first part analyses the policies of climate change and their impacts on growth; the second one analyses the decarbonisation of the power mix, characterised by a high share of intermittent and renewable energies (wind and solar).Part 1: Climate Policy and GrowthThe first chapter assesses the economic consequences of the European policy on Climate-Energy. This assessment is undertaken using the NEMESIS macro-econometric model. The results of this chapter draw an integrated vision of the energy future of Europe. The conclusions are the following. First, the implementation of this European policy should have a weak cost in terms of GDP, which may even be negative depending on how revenues from carbon emissions allowances are spent by governments. Second, significant gains could be made for consumers if this spending increases their disposable incomes. Employment could also be strongly stimulated if the spending of auctions revenues reduces the cost of labour, which would also stimulate household demand and exports of new low-carbon technologies; these results would validate a win-win effect with more jobs and more quality of environment. In the end the application of the principle of solidarity in Europe would allow the Climate-Energy package to be a real opportunity for growth and employment in the EU, in particular for those countries whose GDP is below the European average, such as Romania and Poland which are also carbon-intensive economies.In the second chapter we question the assumption of endogenous growth insofar as the existence of the win-win effect in the NEMESIS model is mainly dependent on long-term effects of R&D investments. We show that the win win is in fact based on the strong assumption of non-decreasing marginal returns to knowledge in the production of innovations. Indeed, the unitary yield leads to increasing returns to scale in the economy when the final good is produced according to a constant-returns-to-scale technology. If on the contrary the production of innovations is subject to strictly decreasing marginal returns (semi-endogenous growth regime), then the rate of growth of production becomes exogenous in the long term and no win-win effect is possible.Part 2: Towards a Carbon-Free and Flexible Power MixThe third chapter deals with photovoltaic energy and its optimal integration in an electrical system despite the variability of this technology. We first develop a multicriteria optimisation methodology to simulate a real system made up of different technical possibilities from solar energies and storage batteries. We then carry out a benchmark of international policies in support of photovoltaic energy. Given the well-known issues of overcapacity, we question the effectiveness of various public subsidies to photovoltaic energy in different countries. We compute and compare the cumulative cost of different policies to promote photovoltaic energy, as well as the proportions between these costs, for the selected countries.The fourth chapter analyses the necessary conditions and limiting factors for an industrial development of the future Generation four of nuclear reactors. Around thirty scenarios are identified through a structural analysis method - resulting in a Chart of direct influences and dependences - after a statistical treatment of cross-data from surveys and interviews of experts. In the end only three scenarios prove favourable to future nuclear power, and there are several messages relating on the one hand to the role of R&D policy in the short/medium term, and on the other hand the effect of competition between technologies in a longer term.In the last chapter, we study the complementarity between nuclear energy and renewable energies (wind and solar). Indeed, as France wishes to increase the share of renewable energy in the existing electric mix characterised by a high share of nuclear power, we have found necessary to study the flexibility of nuclear power as part of the solution of balancing of supply and demand in real time. The methodology used here involves the construction of scenarios which are functions of the level of penetration of renewables into the power mix, integrating the future constraints of the French nuclear fleet as described in the French Act. This fifth chapter shows that the size of the French nuclear reactor fleet could allow production to vary considerably by making small increments in each plant. We show that incentives (carbon tax, etc.) are necessary for nuclear power to play a competitive role as back-up technology, in relation to gas-fired power plants, as the flexibility offered by nuclear power is still limited for technical and economic reasons. Finally in order to better reconcile the divergent economic objectives between the operators of nuclear power plants and the social planner, we are exploring an original solution to develop new products such as hydrogen production for the future sustainable mobility market. ; Ce mémoire d'HDR regroupe une sélection de recherches post-doctorales qui se structure autour de grandes deux parties : D'une part, l'étude des politiques en faveur de la lutte contre le dérèglement du climat et leur impacts sur la croissance ; D'autre part, l'étude des mix électriques décarbonés, caractérisés par une part élevée d'énergies renouvelables intermittentes ou variables (éolien et solaire).Partie 1 : Politiques climatiques et croissance économiqueLe premier chapitre du mémoire porte sur l'évaluation des conséquences économiques de la politique européenne en matières de climat-énergie. Cette évaluation est réalisée à partir du modèle macro-économétrique NEMESIS. Les résultats de ce chapitre dessinent ensemble une vision intégratrice du futur énergétique de l'Europe. Tout d'abord, la mise-en-œuvre de la politique européenne devrait avoir à moyen-terme un coût limité en terme de PIB pour l'UE, lequel pourrait même être négatif en fonction de la réaffectation dans l'économie des revenus tirés des enchères des quotas carbones. Des gains significatifs pourraient être obtenus par les consommateurs si cette réaffectation permettait d'augmenter leurs revenus disponibles. L'emploi pourrait aussi être fortement stimulé si la réaffectation des revenus tirés des enchères permet une réduction du coût du travail qui stimulerait par ailleurs la demande des ménages et les exports de technologies nouvelles bas-carbone : ces résultats valideraient un double-dividende emploi-environnement. L'application du principe de solidarité en Europe pourrait permettre au paquet climat-énergie d'être une opportunité pour la croissance et l'emploi dans l'UE, notamment pour les Etats dont le PIB est sous la moyenne européenne comme la Roumanie et la Pologne qui sont aussi des économies intensives en carbone.Dans un deuxième chapitre, nous interrogeons l'hypothèse de croissance endogène dans la mesure où l'existence du double-dividende dans le modèle NEMESIS dépend principalement de l'existence d'effets à long terme des investissements en RD. Nous montrons que le double-dividende repose sur l'hypothèse forte d'un rendement du stock de connaissance unitaire dans la production des innovations. En effet, le rendement unitaire entraine des rendements d'échelle croissants dans l'économie quand la production du bien final se fait à rendement constant. Si au contraire la production des innovations est soumise à un rendement du stock de connaissance inférieur à l'unité (régime dit de croissance semi-endogène), alors le taux de croissance de la production devient exogène à long terme et le double-dividende est impossible.Partie 2 : Vers des mix électriques décarbonés et flexiblesLe troisième chapitre porte sur l'énergie photovoltaïque (PV) et son intégration optimale dans un système électrique malgré la variabilité de cette technologie. Nous développons d'abord une méthodologie d'optimisation multicritères permettant de simuler un système réel composé de différentes possibilités techniques en matière de PV et de batteries de stockage. Nous réalisons ensuite un benchmark des politiques internationales en matière de soutien au PV. Etant donné les problèmes de surcapacités observés, nous nous interrogeons sur l'efficacité des différentes aides publiques au PV, dans différents pays. Méthodologiquement, nous calculons et comparons pour les pays sélectionnés le coût cumulatif des différentes politiques visant à promouvoir le PV, ainsi que les proportions entre ces coûts.Le quatrième chapitre analyse ensuite les conditions nécessaires et les facteurs limitatifs pour un développement industriel des futurs réacteurs nucléaires de génération quatre. Une trentaine de scénarii sont identifiés à travers une méthode d'analyse structurelle, aboutissant au graphique des influences directes et des dépendances, après un traitement statistique de données croisées à des résultats d'enquêtes et d'interviews semi-directifs d'experts. Au final seulement trois scénarii s'avèrent favorables au nucléaire de génération quatre et il apparaît plusieurs messages relatifs, d'une part, au rôle du politique en matière de RD à court/moyen terme et, d'autre part, à l'effet de la concurrence entre technologies à plus long terme.Nous étudions dans le cinquième et dernier chapitre les complémentarités entre nucléaire et renouvelables (éolien et solaire). En effet, dès lors que la France souhaite augmenter la part des énergies renouvelables variables dans un mix électrique se caractérisant par une part élevée de nucléaire, il nous est apparu nécessaire d'étudier la flexibilité du nucléaire comme faisant partie de la solution permettant d'équilibrer offre et demande électrique en temps réel. La méthodologie retenue implique la construction de scenarii fonctions du niveau de pénétration des renouvelables dans le mix électrique, intégrant les contraintes futures du parc nucléaire français, telles que décrites dans la loi française. Ce cinquième chapitre fait apparaître que la taille de la flotte française de réacteurs nucléaires pourrait permettre à la production de varier considérablement en effectuant de petits incréments dans chaque centrale. Nous montrons que des incitations de type taxe carbone notamment sont nécessaires pour que le nucléaire joue le rôle de back-up de façon compétitive face aux centrales à gaz, puisque la flexibilité offerte par le nucléaire est tout de même limitée pour des raisons techniques et économiques. Enfin, pour concilier au mieux les objectifs économiques divergents entre opérateurs des centrales nucléaires et planificateur social, nous explorons une solution originale consistant à développer de nouveaux produits, comme la production d'hydrogène à destination du futur marché de la mobilité durable.

11 pages ; Literature on endogenous growth shows that a polluting economy can grow sustainably and that a double-dividend or win-win effect comprising growth and the environment is possible. Even with a semi- endogenous growth approach, which occur when the knowledge stock yield falls below the unit in the production of innovations, what happens to sustainability and the double dividend? This paper presents the first semi-endogenous growth model with pollution which answers this very question. We first illustrate that the dynamics of this economy can be sustainable even if its long-term growth rate is exogenous. To ensure the latter, a knowledge stock yield that is greater than a certain strictly positive threshold is required. We then demonstrate that the double dividend is impossible since the level of support for innovation no longer has a positive impact on the long-term growth rate. And the environmental policy always has a negative effect on growth. ; La littérature sur la croissance endogène montre qu'une économie polluante peut croître de façon soutenable (ou durable) et qu'un double-dividende croissance et environnement est possible. Mais en régime de croissance semi-endogène - qui apparait lorsque le rendement du stock de connaissance est inférieur à l'unité dans la production des innovations - qu'advient-il de la durabilité et du double-dividende ? Nous proposons le premier modèle de croissance semi-endogène avec pollution qui répond à cette question. Nous montrons d'abord que la dynamique de cette économie peut être durable, même si son taux de croissance à long terme est exogène. Ce dernier, pour être positif, nécessite un rendement du stock de connaissance qui soit supérieur à une certain seuil, strictement positif. Nous montrons ensuite que le double-dividende est impossible, puisque le soutien à l'innovation n'a plus d'effet positif sur le taux de croissance de long terme. La politique environnementale, quant à elle, joue toujours négativement sur la croissance.

11 pages ; Literature on endogenous growth shows that a polluting economy can grow sustainably and that a double-dividend or win-win effect comprising growth and the environment is possible. Even with a semi- endogenous growth approach, which occur when the knowledge stock yield falls below the unit in the production of innovations, what happens to sustainability and the double dividend? This paper presents the first semi-endogenous growth model with pollution which answers this very question. We first illustrate that the dynamics of this economy can be sustainable even if its long-term growth rate is exogenous. To ensure the latter, a knowledge stock yield that is greater than a certain strictly positive threshold is required. We then demonstrate that the double dividend is impossible since the level of support for innovation no longer has a positive impact on the long-term growth rate. And the environmental policy always has a negative effect on growth. ; La littérature sur la croissance endogène montre qu'une économie polluante peut croître de façon soutenable (ou durable) et qu'un double-dividende croissance et environnement est possible. Mais en régime de croissance semi-endogène - qui apparait lorsque le rendement du stock de connaissance est inférieur à l'unité dans la production des innovations - qu'advient-il de la durabilité et du double-dividende ? Nous proposons le premier modèle de croissance semi-endogène avec pollution qui répond à cette question. Nous montrons d'abord que la dynamique de cette économie peut être durable, même si son taux de croissance à long terme est exogène. Ce dernier, pour être positif, nécessite un rendement du stock de connaissance qui soit supérieur à une certain seuil, strictement positif. Nous montrons ensuite que le double-dividende est impossible, puisque le soutien à l'innovation n'a plus d'effet positif sur le taux de croissance de long terme. La politique environnementale, quant à elle, joue toujours négativement sur la croissance.

11 pages ; Literature on endogenous growth shows that a polluting economy can grow sustainably and that a double-dividend or win-win effect comprising growth and the environment is possible. Even with a semi- endogenous growth approach, which occur when the knowledge stock yield falls below the unit in the production of innovations, what happens to sustainability and the double dividend? This paper presents the first semi-endogenous growth model with pollution which answers this very question. We first illustrate that the dynamics of this economy can be sustainable even if its long-term growth rate is exogenous. To ensure the latter, a knowledge stock yield that is greater than a certain strictly positive threshold is required. We then demonstrate that the double dividend is impossible since the level of support for innovation no longer has a positive impact on the long-term growth rate. And the environmental policy always has a negative effect on growth. ; La littérature sur la croissance endogène montre qu'une économie polluante peut croître de façon soutenable (ou durable) et qu'un double-dividende croissance et environnement est possible. Mais en régime de croissance semi-endogène - qui apparait lorsque le rendement du stock de connaissance est inférieur à l'unité dans la production des innovations - qu'advient-il de la durabilité et du double-dividende ? Nous proposons le premier modèle de croissance semi-endogène avec pollution qui répond à cette question. Nous montrons d'abord que la dynamique de cette économie peut être durable, même si son taux de croissance à long terme est exogène. Ce dernier, pour être positif, nécessite un rendement du stock de connaissance qui soit supérieur à une certain seuil, strictement positif. Nous montrons ensuite que le double-dividende est impossible, puisque le soutien à l'innovation n'a plus d'effet positif sur le taux de croissance de long terme. La politique environnementale, quant à elle, joue toujours négativement sur la croissance.

This book provides an interdisciplinary account of how technological advances - mainly in the domains of energy and transportation - contribute to the transformation towards a more sustainable economic system. Drawing on methods from engineering, the management sciences and economics, which it combines in the framework of a systems sciences approach, the book presents qualitative and quantitative studies on government regulation, resources management and firms' strategy. Topics covered include the state-market dilemma of government CO2 emission targets, implications of the electrification of the economy, incentives and coercion in government transport policies, and innovations in the electric vehicle industry.

In the context of global warming, many countries have announced their national targets in reducing their CO2 emissions. In order to evaluate the technology roadmaps that are necessary to achieve these targets of CO2 emissions, a flexible modeling framework is proposed in this article. This sectoral model avoids the complex computing operations and can be customized according to different requirements and situations. We simulate the model up to the horizon 2050, which is often seen as a turning point in energy use patterns worldwide (forced by the probable decline in hydrocarbons extraction). The technology roadmaps for governmental targets on CO2 emissions are studied for three typical countries: China, France, and the United States. The model covers the sectors responsible for the greatest part of CO2 emissions: power, transport, residence and industry sector, in studying the impacts of the principle energy technologies, such as energy mix, Carbon Capture and Storage, electric vehicles and energy efficiency. Different from classic cost-effective energy system models, our model provides the technology pathways for different criteria, such as balanced development of energy technology across sectors, availability of energy resources, etc. Besides, the sensitivity of parameters in the model is tested for robust simulations at each step of the work and for all technology roadmaps scenarios.

In the context of global warming, many countries have announced their national targets in reducing their CO2 emissions. In order to evaluate the technology roadmaps that are necessary to achieve these targets of CO2 emissions, a flexible modeling framework is proposed in this article. This sectoral model avoids the complex computing operations and can be customized according to different requirements and situations. We simulate the model up to the horizon 2050, which is often seen as a turning point in energy use patterns worldwide (forced by the probable decline in hydrocarbons extraction). The technology roadmaps for governmental targets on CO2 emissions are studied for three typical countries: China, France, and the United States. The model covers the sectors responsible for the greatest part of CO2 emissions: power, transport, residence and industry sector, in studying the impacts of the principle energy technologies, such as energy mix, Carbon Capture and Storage, electric vehicles and energy efficiency. Different from classic cost-effective energy system models, our model provides the technology pathways for different criteria, such as balanced development of energy technology across sectors, availability of energy resources, etc. Besides, the sensitivity of parameters in the model is tested for robust simulations at each step of the work and for all technology roadmaps scenarios.

12 pages ; The aim of the article is to understand how the drivers for investment decisions in the capacities of electricity production have evolved over time, from 1945 to the present day, in the specific context of Europe facing wars and conflicts, scientific and technological progress, strong political and academic developments. We study the electric investment decisions by comparing the history of the European electricity markets with the successively dominant economic theories in this field. Therefore, we highlight differences between rational behaviors, such as described by the theories, and actual behaviors of investors and governments. Thus the liberalization of electricity markets in the European Union, more than twenty-five years ago, parts of a rationalization prescribed by new economic theories. It is clear that liberalization is being discussed. First, it remains very heterogeneous, which complicates the goal of creating a large single market for electricity in the Union. Second, we see a recent re-centralization of energy policy in the European Union (EU), which takes the form of a new regulation mainly relating to climate and renewables. However, this re-regulation is different from centralized control experienced by all European electricity markets until the mid-1980s.

12 pages ; The aim of the article is to understand how the drivers for investment decisions in the capacities of electricity production have evolved over time, from 1945 to the present day, in the specific context of Europe facing wars and conflicts, scientific and technological progress, strong political and academic developments. We study the electric investment decisions by comparing the history of the European electricity markets with the successively dominant economic theories in this field. Therefore, we highlight differences between rational behaviors, such as described by the theories, and actual behaviors of investors and governments. Thus the liberalization of electricity markets in the European Union, more than twenty-five years ago, parts of a rationalization prescribed by new economic theories. It is clear that liberalization is being discussed. First, it remains very heterogeneous, which complicates the goal of creating a large single market for electricity in the Union. Second, we see a recent re-centralization of energy policy in the European Union (EU), which takes the form of a new regulation mainly relating to climate and renewables. However, this re-regulation is different from centralized control experienced by all European electricity markets until the mid-1980s.

12 pages ; The aim of the article is to understand how the drivers for investment decisions in the capacities of electricity production have evolved over time, from 1945 to the present day, in the specific context of Europe facing wars and conflicts, scientific and technological progress, strong political and academic developments. We study the electric investment decisions by comparing the history of the European electricity markets with the successively dominant economic theories in this field. Therefore, we highlight differences between rational behaviors, such as described by the theories, and actual behaviors of investors and governments. Thus the liberalization of electricity markets in the European Union, more than twenty-five years ago, parts of a rationalization prescribed by new economic theories. It is clear that liberalization is being discussed. First, it remains very heterogeneous, which complicates the goal of creating a large single market for electricity in the Union. Second, we see a recent re-centralization of energy policy in the European Union (EU), which takes the form of a new regulation mainly relating to climate and renewables. However, this re-regulation is different from centralized control experienced by all European electricity markets until the mid-1980s.

This article introduces within the DICE Model a new class of consumers with the political or philosophical opinion of "degrowth", so-called deep green consumers (DGC), whose discount rate will endogenously decrease with the economic growth. A new utility function is assumed, using the Ramsey equation, to compute the social discount rate (SDR) in this new way.New paths of consumption and greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions thus arise for both this social rate time of pure preference and the absolute value of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution of the consumption. In this framework, the SDR is a decreasing function with respect to the share of DGC in the total population. The integral of intertemporal utility proves an increasing function with respect to it.This article assesses the impact of an increase in the share of DGC in the population and shows that, under a certain threshold of DGC around 40%, no significant difference in the temperature decrease before 2100 is found. Above this threshold, the trend of increasing temperatures is inverted, within a time frame of one century: A share of 50% of DGC shows a peak for temperature in 2120, with an increase of +3°C., below Nordhaus' optimal path.These assessments show that changes in public opinion, such as the emerging movement in favor of reduced material consumption, or even degrowth, could lead to significant effects in favor of the climate when reaching a certain threshold. This is due to the inertia of both the natural climate systems and capital investment, arguing for strong complementary economic policy measures to reduce GHGs emissions, in addition to preference changes.

This article introduces within the DICE Model a new class of consumers with the political or philosophical opinion of "degrowth", so-called deep green consumers (DGC), whose discount rate will endogenously decrease with the economic growth. A new utility function is assumed, using the Ramsey equation, to compute the social discount rate (SDR) in this new way.New paths of consumption and greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions thus arise for both this social rate time of pure preference and the absolute value of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution of the consumption. In this framework, the SDR is a decreasing function with respect to the share of DGC in the total population. The integral of intertemporal utility proves an increasing function with respect to it.This article assesses the impact of an increase in the share of DGC in the population and shows that, under a certain threshold of DGC around 40%, no significant difference in the temperature decrease before 2100 is found. Above this threshold, the trend of increasing temperatures is inverted, within a time frame of one century: A share of 50% of DGC shows a peak for temperature in 2120, with an increase of +3°C., below Nordhaus' optimal path.These assessments show that changes in public opinion, such as the emerging movement in favor of reduced material consumption, or even degrowth, could lead to significant effects in favor of the climate when reaching a certain threshold. This is due to the inertia of both the natural climate systems and capital investment, arguing for strong complementary economic policy measures to reduce GHGs emissions, in addition to preference changes.

International audience ; Dans cet article, nous cherchons à identifier les freins et leviers au comportement de l'autosoliste pour l'inciter à pratiquer, de manière régulière, des modes de déplacement plus vertueux : transports collectifs, modes doux, et toutes les solutions de mobilité émergentes : covoiturage, autopartage, transport à la demande…En raison de leur coût et de leurs effets souvent irréversibles, les politiques de mobilité doivent être évaluées, dans un but d'aide à la décision. Nous retenons une méthode d'analyse multi-acteurs multicritères pour considérer un maximum d'impacts des projets de mobilité et de garantir la prise en compte explicite des enjeux des différentes parties prenantes : usagers, acteurs historiques, nouveaux entrants, acteurs publics. Nous déployons une méthode originale d'évaluation en deux phases des solutions de mobilité existantes ou émergentes. In fine, une solution de mobilité combinatoire porteuse d'innovation s'appuiera sur les forces de solutions uniques pré-identifiées.

International audience ; Dans cet article, nous cherchons à identifier les freins et leviers au comportement de l'autosoliste pour l'inciter à pratiquer, de manière régulière, des modes de déplacement plus vertueux : transports collectifs, modes doux, et toutes les solutions de mobilité émergentes : covoiturage, autopartage, transport à la demande…En raison de leur coût et de leurs effets souvent irréversibles, les politiques de mobilité doivent être évaluées, dans un but d'aide à la décision. Nous retenons une méthode d'analyse multi-acteurs multicritères pour considérer un maximum d'impacts des projets de mobilité et de garantir la prise en compte explicite des enjeux des différentes parties prenantes : usagers, acteurs historiques, nouveaux entrants, acteurs publics. Nous déployons une méthode originale d'évaluation en deux phases des solutions de mobilité existantes ou émergentes. In fine, une solution de mobilité combinatoire porteuse d'innovation s'appuiera sur les forces de solutions uniques pré-identifiées.