Suchergebnisse

RESUMO Neste artigo, analisamos as metas de inflação, com foco no mecanismo de transmissão de juros e preços. Seus fundamentos teóricos são analisados com base na literatura convencional e alternativa. Discutimos o desempenho recente do setor de varejo no Brasil, destacando como a política monetária afeta os preços, direta e indiretamente. Concluímos a avaliação crítica da meta de inflação. Nossa principal hipótese é que as taxas de juros devem ser vistas não apenas como um instrumento para controlar o nível geral de preços e o nível de atividade, regulando indiretamente a demanda agregada. Também deve ser visto como um componente fundamental e direto dos preços formados no varejo brasileiro. O grande risco de uma meta de inflação, por um lado, é aumentar a deflação e, por outro, criar estagflação - desemprego e inflação.

This paper analyzes inflation targeting, focusing on the interest-price transmission mechanism. The authors discuss the recent performance of the retail industry in Brazil, highlighting how monetary policy affects prices, both directly and indirectly. The key hypothesis is that interest rates must be seen not only as an instrument to control the general price level and the level of activity, by indirectly regulating aggregate demand. It must also be seen as a fundamental and direct component of the prices formed in the Brazilian retail industry. The big risk of inflation targeting, on the one side, is to increase deflation and, on the other, to create stagflation - unemployment and inflation. (Rev Econ Polit/DÜI)

Abstract The end of the Bretton Woods agreement led not only to changes in the international economic relations, but also in the very way in which capitalism functions. The liberalization of capital flows and deregulation and integration of financial markets under US leadership gave rise to a new systemic pattern of wealth, financialization, in which operations with financial assets received increased importance in the management of wealth by households and enterprises, and not only by banks and the other financial market institutions. Unlike most recent interpretations of this phenomenon, this one does not indicate a tendency of the system towards stagnation, but rather an increase in the instability that characterizes it, reinforcing the moments of expansion, contraction, as well as leading to crises. In fact, with the generalization and the dominance of finance, borrowing and spending decisions by enterprises and households are now increasingly responsible for current and expected fluctuations in the stock of wealth, which in turn are responsive to current and expected fluctuations in the prices of financial assets. This implies a transformation in the relationship between the state and the market, with central banks and national treasures becoming hostage to the need to prevent private losses and the perverse effects they may exercise over output, income and employment levels of the economy.