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The potential convergence of regional house prices in the UK is examined. In contrast to the existing literature which focuses upon stochastic convergence, the present paper considers alternative forms of convergence. Using a method based upon conditional probabilities of high and low growth rates, tests are employed to detect β-convergence in UK regional house prices. Importantly, given the suggested differences in regional house price dynamics over the course of the cycle in the housing market, β-convergence is considered not only over the full sample of observations available, but over cyclical sub-samples also. Interestingly, while convergence is not detected over the whole sample available, it is observed over the housing market cycle, with overwhelming evidence of convergence detected particularly during the downturn. These findings, supported by results for σ-convergence, show that failure to detect convergence may be due to its episodic nature being masked when arbitrarily defined sample periods are considered.

An alternative perspective is provided on the existence of a ripple effect in the UK housing market. In contrast to previous studies, the analysis involves consideration of information on the changes in house prices to which the hypothesis of house price diffusion posited by the ripple effect relates, rather than their levels. In an examination of changes in house prices in London relative to other regions of the UK, directional forecasting methods are employed to establish the extent of the relationship between geographical proximity and comovement across the three month window provided by quarterly data. Consequently, the analysis provides a direct examination of the ripple effect which refers to changes in prices rather than the convergence of levels which has become a feature of the empirical literature. The literature is extended further by both the application of dating techniques to perform the analysis across cycles and phases of cycles (recovery and recessionary periods) in the UK housing market, and the use of data from two alternative house price index providers. Striking results in support of the presence of a ripple effect are noted, particularly for the less commonly considered Halifax price index where the most significant results for comovement with London are exhibited by its contiguous regions. In addition, the cyclical subsamples considered indicate comovement to be greater during upturns, rather than downturns in the market. This is consistent with previous research showing London to correct – that is, exhibit differing behaviour to other regions – during downturns.

The literature examining the relative properties of U.S. regional crime rates is extended. Using a novel method, convergence in alternative classifications of crime is detected over the period 1965 to 2009. Subsequent statistical analysis identifies distinct epochs in the evolution of crime which match those noted anecdotally in the literature. The findings concerning convergence within these epochs prove interesting, with results found to vary both between the alternative crime classifications and through time. In particular, evidence of divergence is noted which contrasts starkly with other results for earlier and later periods. Potential explanations for the observed results, their importance for policy and their implications for theory and future research are discussed.

Recent research concerning the potential presence of a national trend in regionally disaggregated US crime data is extended. In light of the varying levels of criminal activity noted in differing regions of the US, the present analysis considers whether a trend is emerging rather than currently present. Using alternative methods, potential convergence in criminal activity across the states of the US is examined. The results presented provide clear evidence of a previously undetected finding of convergence over the period 1960–2009 for all classifications of criminal activity considered. The importance and implications of these findings, along with their support in previous research on, inter alia, socioeconomic conditions, sentencing policies and alternative theories, are discussed.

This paper offers evidence of the asymmetric effect of monetary policy on economic activity. First, asymmetric adjustment is captured in three macroeconomic relationships for investment, the consumer price deflator, inventories and house prices. These relationships are then embedded in a small macroeconometric model of the UK economy. Simulations on this model allow us to trace through the interactions of these asymmetries so that a monetary shock—measured by a change in interest rates—affects output and inflation in the short run in ways dependent both upon the sign of the shock and the initial state of the economy. A monetary easing has significantly larger effects on inflation when the economy is close to capacity compared with when it is in recession. These effects are captured by intrinsic asymmetries in the model, due to the use of the logarithm of interest rates and the logarithm of unemployment in the wage equation, as well as the asymmetries coming from the non‐linearities which we have introduced explicitly.