Measuring Issue Congruence Between German Parties and Voters
For the relatively stable and predictable German political system, the outcome of the Federal elections of 2017 was a remarkable surprise, with the country's two major political parties noting record losses, the major beneficiary being a relative newcomer to the political scene, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party. This paper traces the trajectory of AfD from a primarily Euro-sceptic and market-friendly party in 2013 to a mainly culturally conservative and anti-immigrant party in 2017. Data from the ParteieNavi2017 Voting Advice Application are then used to attempt to trace the conditions at the individual level of analysis that fostered vote-switching behaviour from the two established mainstream parties (CDU/CSU and SPD) toward AfD. We find neither demographic characteristics nor self-placement of users on the economic Left-Right axis to be a determinant of vote switching to AfD; on the other hand, self-placement on the socio-cultural Liberal-Progressive dimension and policy preferences for anti- immigration and anti-EU integration policies were significant predictors of such voting behaviour.