Suchergebnisse

Abstract. Ensemble forecasts at kilometre scale of two severe storms over the Mediterranean region are verified against satellite observations. In complement to assessing the forecasts against ground-based measurements, brightness temperature (BT) images are computed from forecast fields and directly compared to BTs observed from satellite. The so-called model-to-satellite approach is very effective in identifying systematic errors in the prediction of cloud cover for BTs in the infrared window and in verifying the forecasted convective activity with BTs in the microwave range. This approach is combined with the calculation of meteorological scores for an objective evaluation of ensemble forecasts. The application of the approach is shown in the context of two Mediterranean case studies, a tropical-like storm and a heavy precipitating event. Assessment of cloud cover and convective activity using satellite observations in the infrared (10.8 μm) and microwave regions (183–191 GHz) provides results consistent with other traditional methods using rainfall measurements. In addition, for the tropical-like storm, differences among forecasts occur much earlier in terms of cloud cover and deep convective activity than they do in terms of deepening and track. Further, the underdispersion of the ensemble forecasts of the two high-impact weather events is easily identified with satellite diagnostics. This suggests that such an approach could be a useful method for verifying ensemble forecasts, particularly in data-sparse regions.

Abstract. Subsynoptic scale vortices that have been likened to tropical cyclones or polar lows (medicanes) are occasionally observed over the Mediterranean Sea. Generated over the sea, they are usually associated with strong winds and heavy precipitation and thus can be highly destructive in islands and costal areas. Only an accurate forecasting of such systems could mitigate these effects. However, at the moment, the predictability of these systems remains limited. Due to the scarcity of conventional observations, use is made of NOAA/MetOp satellite observations, for which advantage can be taken of the time coverage differences between the platforms that carry it, to give a very complete temporal description of the disturbances. A combination of AMSU-B (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-B)/MHS (Microwave Humidity Sounder) observations permit to investigate precipitation associated with these systems while coincident AMSU-A (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A) observations give insights into the larger synoptic-scale environment in which they occur. Three different cases (in terms of intensity, location, trajectory, duration, and periods of the year – May, September and December, respectively) were investigated. Throughout these time periods, AMSU-A observations show that the persisting deep outflow of cold air over the sea together with an upper-level trough upstream constituted a favourable environment for the development of medicanes. AMSU-B/MHS based diagnostics show that convection and precipitation areas are large in the early stage of the low, but significantly reduced afterwards. Convection is maximum just after the upper-level trough, located upstream of cold mid-tropospheric air, reached its maximum intensity and acquired a cyclonic orientation.

Abstract. A new precipitation and convection dataset for the Mediterranean Basin, derived from operational satellite microwave data is documented. The dataset is derived from diagnostics that rely on brightness temperatures measured since 1999 in the water vapour absorption line (183–191 GHz). The dataset consists of twice-daily (a.m. and p.m.) and monthly maps of precipitation and convection occurrences on a 0.2° lat × 0.2° long grid for the area 25°–60° N, 10° W–50° E. The instruments used so far are the AMSU-B sensor on the NOAA-15 to -17 satellites, and the MHS sensor on the NOAA-18 and -19 and METOP-2 satellites, with precipitation and convection available separately for the different sensors. The slightly different radiometric characteristics of MHS compared to AMSU-B do not affect significantly the continuity of the dataset. Precipitation and convection data from different sensors on different satellites are remarkably consistent, with generally small biases between the instruments. When larger biases appear, they can be explained either by the drifts in the satellite orbit, scan asymmetry, or temporal aliasing from insufficiently resolving the diurnal cycle of precipitation and convection. After a description of climatological aspects of rain and deep convection occurrence, the interest of this dataset to evaluate model uncertainties for simulating a high-impact weather event and for climatic regional runs over this area is illustrated.