Suchergebnisse

AbstractIntroductionThe COVID‐19 pandemic has affected women and children globally, disrupting antiretroviral therapy (ART) services and exacerbating pre‐existing barriers to care for both pregnant women and paediatric populations.MethodsWe used the Spectrum modelling package and the CEPAC‐Pediatric model to project the impact of COVID‐19‐associated care disruptions on three key populations in the 21 Global Plan priority countries in sub‐Saharan Africa: (1) pregnant and breastfeeding women living with HIV and their children, (2) all children (aged 0–14 years) living with HIV (CLWH), regardless of their engagement in care and (3) CLWH who were engaged in care and on ART prior to the start of the pandemic. We projected clinical outcomes over the 12‐month period of 1 March 2020 to 1 March 2021.ResultsCompared to a scenario with no care disruption, in a 3‐month lockdown with complete service disruption, followed by 3 additional months of partial (50%) service disruption, a projected 755,400 women would have received PMTCT care (a 21% decrease), 187,800 new paediatric HIV infections would have occurred (a 77% increase) and 516,800 children would have received ART (a 35% decrease). For children on ART as of March 2020, we projected 507,200 would have experienced ART failure (an 80% increase). Additionally, a projected 88,400 AIDS‐related deaths would have occurred (a 27% increase) between March 2020 and March 2021, with 51,700 of those deaths occurring among children engaged in care as of March 2020 (a 54% increase).ConclusionsWhile efforts will continue to curb morbidity and mortality stemming directly from COVID‐19 itself, it is critical that providers also consider the immediate and indirect harms of this pandemic, particularly among vulnerable populations. Well‐informed, timely action is critical to meet the health needs of pregnant women and children if the global community is to maintain momentum towards an AIDS‐free generation.

AbstractIntroductionEvaluating outcomes of paediatric patients with HIV provides crucial data for clinicians and policymakers. We analysed mortality and clinical events rates among children, adolescents, and youth with perinatally acquired HIV (PHIV) aged 0 to 24 years stratified by time‐varying age and CD4, before and after antiretroviral therapy (ART), in the paediatric IeDEA multiregional collaboration (East, West, Central and Southern Africa, Asia‐Pacific, and Central/South America and the Caribbean).MethodsART‐naïve children with HIV enrolled before age 10 (proxy for perinatal infection) at IeDEA sites between 2004 and 2016, with ≥1 CD4 measurement during follow‐up were included. We estimated incidence rates (IR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of mortality and first occurrence of WHO‐4 and WHO‐3 events, excluding tuberculosis, during person‐years (PY) spent within different age (<2, 2 to 4, 5 to 9, 10 to 14, 15 to 19, 20 to 24) and CD4 (percent when <5 years [<15%, 15% to 24%, ≥25%]; count when ≥5 years [<200, 200 to 499, ≥500 cells/µL]) strata. We used linear mixed models to predict CD4 evolution, with trends modelled by region.ResultsIn the pre‐ART period, 49 137 participants contributed 51 966 PY of follow‐up (median enrolment age: 3.9 years). The overall pre‐ART IRs were 2.8/100 PY (95% CI: 2.7 to 2.9) for mortality, 3.3/100 PY (95% CI: 3.0 to 3.5) for first occurrence of a WHO‐4 event, and 7.0/100 PY (95% CI: 6.7 to 7.4) for first occurrence of a WHO‐3 event. Lower CD4 and younger age strata were associated with increased rates of both mortality and first occurrence of a clinical event. In the post‐ART period, 52 147 PHIVY contributed 207 945 PY (ART initiation median age: 4.5 years). Overall mortality IR was 1.4/100 PY (95% CI: 1.4 to 1.5) and higher in low CD4 strata; patients at each end of the age spectrum (<2 and >19) had increased mortality post‐ART. IRs for first occurrence of WHO‐4 and WHO‐3 events were 1.3/100 PY (95% CI: 1.2 to 1.4) and 2.1/100 PY (95% CI: 2.0 to 2.2) respectively. These were also associated with lower CD4 and younger age strata.ConclusionsMortality and incidence of clinical events were highest in both younger (<2 years) and older (>19 years) youth with PHIV. Scaling‐up services for <2 years (early access to HIV diagnosis and care) and >19 years (adolescent‐ and youth‐focused health services) is critical to improve outcomes among PHIVY.

AbstractIntroductionInfant HIV prophylaxis with broadly neutralizing anti‐HIV antibodies (bNAbs) could provide long‐acting protection against vertical transmission. We sought to estimate the potential clinical impact and cost‐effectiveness of hypothetical bNAb prophylaxis programmes for children known to be HIV exposed at birth in three sub‐Saharan African settings.MethodsWe conducted a cost‐effectiveness analysis using the CEPAC‐Pediatric model, simulating cohorts of infants from birth through death in Côte d'Ivoire, South Africa and Zimbabwe. These settings were selected to reflect a broad range of HIV care cascade characteristics, antenatal HIV prevalence and budgetary constraints. We modelled strategies targeting bNAbs to only WHO‐designated "high‐risk" HIV‐exposed infants (HR‐HIVE) or to all HIV‐exposed infants (HIVE). We compared four prophylaxis approaches within each target population: standard of care oral antiretroviral prophylaxis (SOC), andSOCplus bNAbs at birth (1‐dose), at birth and 3 months (2‐doses), or every 3 months throughout breastfeeding (Extended). Base‐case model inputs included bNAb efficacy (60%/dose), effect duration (3 months/dose) and costs ($60/dose), based on published literature. Outcomes included paediatric HIV incidence and incremental cost‐effectiveness ratios (ICERs) calculated from discounted life expectancy and lifetime HIV‐related costs.ResultsThe model projects that bNAbs would reduce absolute infant HIV incidence by 0.3–2.2% (9.6–34.9% relative reduction), varying by country, prophylaxis approach and target population. In all three settings,HR‐HIVE–1‐dosewould be cost‐saving compared toSOC. Using a 50% GDP per capita ICER threshold,HIVE‐Extendedwould be cost‐effective in all three settings with ICERs of $497/YLS in Côte d'Ivoire, $464/YLS in South Africa and $455/YLS in Zimbabwe. In all three settings, bNAb strategies would remain cost‐effective at costs up to $200/dose if efficacy is ≥30%. If the bNAb effect duration were reduced to 1 month, the cost‐effective strategy would becomeHR‐HIVE–1‐dosein Côte d'Ivoire and Zimbabwe andHR‐HIVE–2‐dosesin South Africa. Findings regarding the cost‐effectiveness of bNAb implementation strategies remained robust in sensitivity analyses regarding breastfeeding duration, maternal engagement in postpartum care, early infant diagnosis uptake and antiretroviral treatment costs.ConclusionsAt current efficacy and cost estimates, bNAb prophylaxis for HIV‐exposed children in sub‐Saharan African settings would be a cost‐effective intervention to reduce vertical HIV transmission.

AbstractIntroductionTo improve the diagnosis and survival of children living with HIV (CLWH), the World Health Organization recommends testing approaches beyond traditional infant HIV testing programmes. Information about undiagnosed HIV prevalence among children of varying ages in the general population is needed to guide innovative national/subnational case‐finding and testing approaches.MethodsWe used the Cost‐Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC)‐Pediatric model to estimate the prevalence of undiagnosed HIV in 2‐, 5‐ and 10‐year‐old children in South Africa, Côte d'Ivoire and Zimbabwe in 2018. We simulated cohorts of children born in 2008 (10‐year‐olds), 2013 (5‐year‐olds) and 2016 (2‐year‐olds). Country‐/year‐specific inputs for pregnant/breastfeeding women included: HIV prevalence (4.2–32.3%), HIV incidence (0.03–0.24%/month), knowledge of HIV status (27–89%) and antiretroviral drug coverage (36–95%). Paediatric inputs included early infant testing coverage (6–95%) and breastfeeding duration (0–20 months). We projected the proportion of surviving CLWH in whom HIV remained undiagnosed and the undiagnosed HIV prevalence among surviving children of each age in the general population. For children born in 2016, we projected survival and diagnosis of all CLWH through 2026. We conducted sensitivity analyses on model parameters.ResultsIn 2018, the projected proportion of surviving CLWH whose HIV remained undiagnosed in South Africa/Côte d'Ivoire/Zimbabwe was 44.2%/55.8%/52.9% among 2‐year‐old CLWH; 29.0%/37.8%/33.2% among 5‐year‐old CLWH; and 18.3%/25.4%/23.1% among 10‐year‐old CLWH. Projected general population undiagnosed HIV prevalence in South Africa/Côte d'Ivoire/Zimbabwe was 0.44%/0.32%/0.68% among 2‐year‐olds; 0.25%/0.17%/0.41% among 5‐year‐olds; and 0.24%/0.14%/0.38% among 10‐year‐olds. Among all CLWH born in 2016, 50–54% were projected to die without HIV diagnosis (and subsequently without treatment) within 10 years after birth; 80–85% of these deaths occurred in the first 2 years.ConclusionsProjected population‐level undiagnosed HIV prevalence is low and sharply decreases after age 2, with more CLWH dying than being diagnosed. Despite low undiagnosed prevalence in the general population of older children, we project that a large proportion of CLWH remain undiagnosed, suggesting that innovative strategies targeting untested children of all ages outside of health facility settings should be prioritized. Programmes could consider routine testing of the general population of children below 2 in all settings and children of all ages in high‐prevalence settings.

AbstractIntroductionUptake of early infant HIV diagnosis (EID) varies widely across sub‐Saharan African settings. We evaluated the potential clinical impact and cost‐effectiveness of universal maternal HIV screening at infant immunization visits, with referral to EID and maternal antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation.MethodsUsing the CEPAC‐Pediatric model, we compared two strategies for infants born in 2017 in Côte d'Ivoire (CI), South Africa (SA), and Zimbabwe: (1) existing EID programmes offering six‐week nucleic acid testing (NAT) for infants with known HIV exposure (EID), and (2) EID plus universal maternal HIV screening at six‐week infant immunization visits, leading to referral for infant NAT and maternal ART initiation (screen‐and‐test). Model inputs included published Ivoirian/South African/Zimbabwean data: maternal HIV prevalence (4.8/30.8/16.1%), current uptake of EID (40/95/65%) and six‐week immunization attendance (99/74/94%). Referral rates for infant NAT and maternal ART initiation after screen‐and‐test were 80%. Costs included NAT ($24/infant), maternal screening ($10/mother–infant pair), ART ($5 to 31/month) and HIV care ($15 to 190/month). Model outcomes included mother‐to‐child transmission of HIV (MTCT) among HIV‐exposed infants, and life expectancy (LE) and mean lifetime per‐person costs for children with HIV (CWH) and all children born in 2017. We calculated incremental cost‐effectiveness ratios (ICERs) using discounted (3%/year) lifetime costs and LE for all children. We considered two cost‐effectiveness thresholds in each country: (1) the per‐capita GDP ($1720/6380/2150) per year‐of‐life saved (YLS), and (2) the CEPAC‐generated ICER of offering 2 versus 1 lifetime ART regimens (e.g. offering second‐line ART; $520/500/580/YLS).ResultsWith EID, projected six‐week MTCT was 9.3% (CI), 4.2% (SA) and 5.2% (Zimbabwe). Screen‐and‐test decreased total MTCT by 0.2% to 0.5%, improved LE by 2.0 to 3.5 years for CWH and 0.03 to 0.07 years for all children, and increased discounted costs by $17 to 22/child (all children). The ICER of screen‐and‐test compared to EID was $1340/YLS (CI), $650/YLS (SA) and $670/YLS (Zimbabwe), below the per‐capita GDP but above the ICER of 2 versus 1 lifetime ART regimens in all countries.ConclusionsUniversal maternal HIV screening at immunization visits with referral to EID and maternal ART initiation may reduce MTCT, improve paediatric LE, and be of comparable value to current HIV‐related interventions in high maternal HIV prevalence settings like SA and Zimbabwe.