Suchergebnisse

AbstractThe use of derivatives to infer future exchange rates has long been a subject of interest in the international finance literature. With the recent currency crises in Mexico, Southeast Asia, and Brazil, work on exchange rate expectations in emerging markets is of particular interest. For some emerging markets, foreign equity options are the only liquid exchange‐traded derivatives with currency information embedded in their prices. Given that emerging markets sometimes undergo currency realignment with discrete jumps in their exchange rate, estimation of risk‐neutral probability density functions from foreign equity option data provides valuable evidence concerning market expectations. To illustrate the use of foreign equity options in estimating market beliefs, we consider Telmex options around the 1994 peso devaluation and find evidence that markets anticipated the change in the Mexican government's foreign exchange policy.

The objective of this paper is to offer a methodology for sizing credit-sensitive Asset Backed Securities (ABS) used in the prime mortgage lending sector in the U.S. and then to evaluate their relative performance. Using a multi-factor Monte Carlo simulation framework, we perform a four-step analysis. First, we estimate scenario-specific credit losses from a given mortgage pool. We then structure the pool into a "6-pack" subordination structure based on statistically-determined stress economic scenarios. Next, we estimate performance indicators of the tranches to compare risk-adjusted returns. Finally, we report our results in terms of tranche-specific risk-adjusted returns. The results indicate that the middle tranches of ABS, e.g., BBB and BB, possess the lowest risk-adjusted returns. We also find and explain a "cliff" phenomenon in the tranche-level principal cash flows.