Suchergebnisse

Scholars of electoral autocracies accord far more attention to post-election protests than pre-election ones, as the former have the potential to trigger a regime transition. We argue that pre-election protests can have a significant effect on election outcomes. In particular, they are likely to deepen social cleavages along two dimensions: age and immigrant status. The 2019 social unrest in Hong Kong provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the electoral impact of pre-election protests. Comparing public opinion data related to the 2019 and 2015 District Council elections, we find strong empirical support for our argument, as immigrant status and age are strong predictors of voting choices and voter turnout. Our findings imply that exposure to democratic protests may not help in bridging the gap in political attitudes between immigrants and natives.

Why would dictators purge members of their ruling coalition? Some argue that doing so can minimize the risk to dictators' political survival, while others contend that dictators who mount purges are motivated by the desire to share resources with fewer allies. In this study, we analyze an original dataset, compiled from biographical data on the subordinates of the founding emperors of seven ancient Chinese imperial dynasties. Analyzing the data with competing risks models, we find that military experience is a strong predictor of political purges. Emperors were less likely to execute officers who had fought in more battles, but more likely to execute commanders, especially those who had established military credentials prior to the founding of an empire. In addition, the incidence of political purges heightened toward the end of an emperor's life, which implies that the founding emperors were concerned about the security threats against their designated successors. Potential challengers came not only from the military, but also from the aristocracy. Indeed, we find that the blood relatives of the emperors were more likely to experience a mild form of purges: deprivation of titles. These findings suggest that dictators are more likely to use purges to reduce existential threats.

In his seminal book Exit, Voice, and Loyalty, Hirschman suggests that loyal members are less likely to exit when dissatisfied with the performance of the organization. In the context of a political regime, however, we argue that loyalty may actually encourage exit because loyal members are more sensitive to the performance decline of the regime. Using an original survey conducted in Hong Kong, we show that survey respondents with a stronger local identity have greater migration intentions. We also find that the heterogeneity of perceived political changes plays a significant role as a mediator. We discuss the political implications for Hong Kong.

In his seminal book Exit, Voice, and Loyalty, Hirschman suggests that loyal members are less likely to exit when dissatisfied with the performance of the organization. In the context of a political regime, however, we argue that loyalty may actually encourage exit because loyal members are more sensitive to the performance decline of the regime. Using an original survey conducted in Hong Kong, we show that survey respondents with a stronger local identity have greater migration intentions. We also find that the heterogeneity of perceived political changes plays a significant role as a mediator. We discuss the political implications for Hong Kong.

ObjectivesMelanoma treatment has evolved over the past decade with the adoption of adjuvant and palliative immunotherapies and targeted therapies and changes in use of sentinel node biopsy. The impact on real-world healthcare costs and outcomes is uncertain. Here we examine changes in healthcare costs and survival using administrative data.
ApproachUsing data from the universal healthcare system in Ontario, Canada, we examine a propensity-matched, retrospective cohort of patients aged 20+ years with Stage I-IV invasive cutaneous melanoma from 2018-2019 compared with those from 2007-2012. The primary outcomes were public payer's mean healthcare per-person costs, and overall survival (OS). Costs were estimated with an established case-mix and claim-based costing algorithm for Ontario, in which person-level costs are allocated for the various healthcare utilizations over time. Standardized mean differences were used to compare costs, and the log-rank test and Cox regression were used to compare survival among stage-stratified, propensity-score matched cohorts.
ResultsWe identified 1,138 patients with melanoma from 2018-2019 and 7,654 from 2007-2012. After stage stratification and propensity-matching (N=1,101 per cohort), sentinel lymph node biopsy (62.3% vs. 43.4%) and systemic therapy use (27.3% vs. 12.5%) were more frequent in 2018-2019 compared to 2007-2012. 2018-2019 patients had greater mean healthcare (including systemic therapy) costs compared to 2007-2012 with Stage II ($27,835 vs. $21,179), III ($90,508 vs. $46,242) and IV disease ($118,398 vs. $46,500). There was a seven-to-twelve-fold increase in mean systemic therapy costs for treated patients with Stage III ($68,207 vs. $9,832) and IV disease ($80,905 vs. $6,883). OS was greater in 2018-2019 versus 2007-2012 (2-year OS: 87.8% [95% Confidence Interval {CI}: 85.8-89.6%] vs. 83.7% [95% CI: 81.3-85.7%]; Hazard Ratio {HR}: 0.72 [95% CI: 0.59-0.89]; p<0.05).
ConclusionThese real-world data highlight trade-offs with adoption of new effective systemic therapies for melanoma, with a greater economic burden to the healthcare system but an associated improvement in survival. Such evolving paradigm changes may prompt dynamic evaluations of healthcare resources and policies to ensure cancer care is sustainable.

AbstractSARS‐CoV‐2 Omicron and its sub‐lineages have become the predominant variants globally since early 2022. As of January 2023, over 664 million confirmed cases and over 6.7 million deaths had been reported globally. Current infection models are limited by the need for large datasets or calibration to specific contexts, making them difficult to apply to different settings. This study aims to develop a generalized multinomial probabilistic model of airborne infection to assist public health decision‐makers in evaluating the effectiveness of public health interventions (PHIs) across a broad spectrum of scenarios. The proposed model systematically incorporates group characteristics, epidemiology, viral loads, social activities, environmental conditions, and PHIs. Assumptions about social distance and contact duration that estimate infectivity during short‐term group gatherings have been made. The study is differentiated from earlier works on probabilistic infection modeling in the following ways: (1) predicting new cases arising from more than one infectious person in a gathering, (2) incorporating additional key infection factors, and (3) evaluating the effectiveness of multiple PHIs on SARS‐CoV‐2 infection simultaneously. Although the results show that limiting group size has an impact on infection, improving ventilation has a much greater positive health impact. The proposed model is versatile and can flexibly accommodate other scenarios or airborne diseases by modifying the parameters allowing new factors to be added.

Geriatric assessment (GA) is supported by recent trials and guidelines yet rarely implemented due to a lack of resources. We performed an economic evaluation of a geriatric oncology clinic. Pre-GA proposed treatments and post-GA actual treatments were obtained from a detailed chart review of patients seen at a single academic centre. GA-based costs for investigations and referrals were calculated. Unit costs were obtained for surgical, radiation, systemic therapy, laboratory, imaging, physician, nursing, and allied health care (all in 2019 Canadian dollars). A six-month time horizon and government payer perspective were used. Consecutive patients aged 65 years or older (n = 152, mean age 82 y) and referred in the pre-treatment setting between July 2016 and June 2018 were included. Treatment plans were modified for 51% of patients. Costs associated with planned treatment were CAD 3,655,015. Costs associated with GA and related interventions were CAD 95,798. Final treatment costs were CAD 2,436,379. Net savings associated with the clinic were CAD 1,122,837, or CAD 7387 per patient seen. Findings were robust in multiple sensitivity analyses. Combined with mounting trial data demonstrating the clinical benefits of GA, our data can inform a strong business case for geriatric oncology clinics in health care environments similar to ours, but additional studies in diverse health care settings are warranted.

BackgroundOncology therapy is becoming increasingly more expensive and challenging the affordability and sustainability of drug programmes around the world. When new drugs are evaluated, health technology assessment organisations rely on clinical trials to inform funding decisions. However, clinical trials are not able to assess overall survival and generalises evidence in a real-world setting. As a result, policy makers have little information on whether drug funding decisions based on clinical trials ultimately yield the outcomes and value for money that might be expected.ObjectiveThe Canadian Real-world Evidence for Value of Cancer Drugs (CanREValue) collaboration, consisting of researchers, recommendation-makers, decision makers, payers, patients and caregivers, are developing and testing a framework for Canadian provinces to generate and use real-world evidence (RWE) for cancer drug funding in a consistent and integrated manner.StrategyThe CanREValue collaboration has established five formal working groups (WGs) to focus on specific processes in the generation and use of RWE for cancer drug funding decisions in Canada. The different RWE WGs are: (1) Planning and Drug Selection; (2) Methods; (3) Data; (4) Reassessment and Uptake; (5) Engagement. These WGs are acting collaboratively to develop a framework for RWE evaluation, validate the framework through the multiprovince RWE projects and help to integrate the final RWE framework into the Canadian healthcare system.OutcomesThe framework will enable the reassessment of cancer drugs, refinement of funding recommendations and use of novel funding mechanisms by decision-makers/payers across Canada to ensure the healthcare system is providing clinical benefits and value for money.

BackgroundOncology therapy is becoming increasingly more expensive and challenging the affordability and sustainability of drug programmes around the world. When new drugs are evaluated, health technology assessment organisations rely on clinical trials to inform funding decisions. However, clinical trials are not able to assess overall survival and generalises evidence in a real-world setting. As a result, policy makers have little information on whether drug funding decisions based on clinical trials ultimately yield the outcomes and value for money that might be expected.ObjectiveThe Canadian Real-world Evidence for Value of Cancer Drugs (CanREValue) collaboration, consisting of researchers, recommendation-makers, decision makers, payers, patients and caregivers, are developing and testing a framework for Canadian provinces to generate and use real-world evidence (RWE) for cancer drug funding in a consistent and integrated manner.StrategyThe CanREValue collaboration has established five formal working groups (WGs) to focus on specific processes in the generation and use of RWE for cancer drug funding decisions in Canada. The different RWE WGs are: (1) Planning and Drug Selection; (2) Methods; (3) Data; (4) Reassessment and Uptake; (5) Engagement. These WGs are acting collaboratively to develop a framework for RWE evaluation, validate the framework through the multiprovince RWE projects and help to integrate the final RWE framework into the Canadian healthcare system.OutcomesThe framework will enable the reassessment of cancer drugs, refinement of funding recommendations and use of novel funding mechanisms by decision-makers/payers across Canada to ensure the healthcare system is providing clinical benefits and value for money.

Ethnopharmacological relevance Studies on traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), like those of other systems of traditional medicine (TM), are very variable in their quality, content and focus, resulting in issues around their acceptability to the global scientific community. In an attempt to address these issues, an European Union funded FP7 consortium, composed of both Chinese and European scientists and named "Good practice in traditional Chinese medicine" (GP-TCM), has devised a series of guidelines and technical notes to facilitate good practice in collecting, assessing and publishing TCM literature as well as highlighting the scope of information that should be in future publications on TMs. This paper summarises these guidelines, together with what has been learned through GP-TCM collaborations, focusing on some common problems and proposing solutions. The recommendations also provide a template for the evaluation of other types of traditional medicine such as Ayurveda, Kampo and Unani. Materials and methods GP-TCM provided a means by which experts in different areas relating to TCM were able to collaborate in forming a literature review good practice panel which operated through e-mail exchanges, teleconferences and focused discussions at annual meetings. The panel involved coordinators and representatives of each GP-TCM work package (WP) with the latter managing the testing and refining of such guidelines within the context of their respective WPs and providing feedback. Results A Good Practice Handbook for Scientific Publications on TCM was drafted during the three years of the consortium, showing the value of such networks. A "deliverable – central questions – labour division" model had been established to guide the literature evaluation studies of each WP. The model investigated various scoring systems and their ability to provide consistent and reliable semi-quantitative assessments of the literature, notably in respect of the botanical ingredients involved and the scientific quality of the work described. This resulted in the compilation of (i) a robust scoring system and (ii) a set of minimum standards for publishing in the herbal medicines field, based on an analysis of the main problems identified in published TCM literature. Conclusion Good quality, peer-reviewed literature is crucial in maintaining the integrity and the reputation of the herbal scientific community and promoting good research in TCM. These guidelines provide a clear starting point for this important endeavour. They also provide a platform for adaptation, as appropriate, to other systems of traditional medicine.