Suchergebnisse

Tanzania's agriculture faces persistent low crop productivity due to endogenous and exogenous factors, particularly low and unpredictable rainfall, and the incidence of pests. To address these challenges, the government and partners are making efforts to develop and deploy Genetically Modified (GM) Maize varieties with drought tolerance and insect resistant traits (WEMA), and Cassava Brown Streak Disease (CBSD) resistant varieties. This analysis overcomes limitations from earlier assessments of the impacts of those GM crops by accounting for trade-offs in resource competition and considering the indirect effects of adoption and yield gains from GM maize and cassava varieties on the broader economy, the Agri-Food System (AFS), and on household level outcomes. It extends the BioRAPP analysis to an ex-ante economywide framework. We reveal several findings. First, GM maize and cassava (individually and jointly) have positive impacts in the economy, the AFS, and the poverty, particularly in rural areas and among the poorest households. Second, given its relatively greater relevance in output and employment, and the stronger linkages in the AFS, the effects of GM maize on GDP and AFS growth, and poverty is relatively stronger than those from GM cassava. Third, as expected, relatively greater effects are found in higher adoption and high yield gains scenarios, and, in each scenario, the effects on the poorest households are greater than that for the higher quintiles. Furthermore, differential impact across scenarios is also greater amongst the poorest, while the differences are minimal for the top quintile. Finally, the high variation of results across scenarios, and the significant effects of the high adoption/high yield change scenario, suggest that efforts will be critical to ensure the realization of the maximization of adoption rates while ensuring the materialization of the yield growth potential of the GM varieties through the efficient use of technical recommendations on crop production management, and the ...

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) published the first method-focused assessment of the applied economic literature about the ex ante and ex post impacts of genetically engineered crops in developing countries in 2009. The overall findings have since been documented by other authors and have been the subject of several other studies and meta-analyses. Of the 154 papers analyzed in the cited IFPRI 2009 publications, only 25 were focused on Africa. Ten years later, this paper shows that the number of publications for Africa has nearly tripled, reaching a total of 72 publications. We gathered, classified, and reviewed all 72 Africa-focused publications. Most of the papers continue to focus on South Africa, an early adopter of the technology and, until 2007, the only African country that had commercialized GE crops. Today, even after the commercialization of insect resistant crops in Burkina Faso, Egypt, and Sudan, and the recent approval for commercialization of insect resistant cotton in Nigeria and Ethiopia, South Africa continues to be the most represented country in the literature and is the focus of 30 of the 72 publications. Nevertheless, a shift is occurring. Whereas only 4 African countries were represented in 2006, there are now 24. Additionally, the crop-focus of this literature has also expanded from mainly cotton to include a wider variety of crop/technologies, such as bacillus thuringiensis (Bt)/nutritionally enhanced banana, Bt tomato, and drought-resistant maize, among others. In addition to documenting and analyzing this Africa-focused literature, this paper documents a total of 353 performance indicators related to the actual or projected changes in yields, gross income, and input use contained in the papers focus of this review. A summary of these performance indicators has also been compiled as a searchable database available to all potential users, including practitioners, interested decision and policy makers, as well as businesses and donors not only to facilitate further research, but also as reference to advance specific GE policies, and to increase awareness related to GE technology performance. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; CRP2; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply ; EPTD; PIM; DGO ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

This paper uses an innovative research process to quantify the potential impacts of releasing and adopting insect-resistant (IR) cowpea and nitrogen-use efficient (NUE) rice in Ghana using an economic surplus partial equilibrium model. The premise of the research process was to build national capacity to produce timely and robust estimates, based on secondary data and qualified experts' informed opinions, collected in country. Ghana's stakeholders selected the two genetically modified (GM) technologies discussed here based on their assessment of these GM products' regulatory advancement and their economic and political importance. Using assumptions regarding the expected changes from the adoption and commercialization of these crops, collected from national and international crop and technology experts, the authors estimate that the benefits of adopting IR cowpea are between US$5.5 million and US$125.3 million, and between US$1.9 million and US$153 million for NUE rice. The analysis also shows how a five-year regulatory delay may erode these benefits, reducing them by between 29 and 39 percent for IR cowpea and between 28 and 57 percent for NUE rice. Additionally, the authors make preliminary estimates of sex-disaggregated benefits and calculate the unequal distribution of benefits between female and male producers and consumers owing to gender disparities in production and consumption. The welfare estimations are based on an economic surplus model that were estimated using the DREAM software. Although this partial equilibrium model has limitations regarding market-clearing assumptions and is specific to a product, it is a data-parsimonious method that can produce results in a short time frame, which might better suit policymakers' and decision makers' demands for rapid estimations. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; DCA; CRP2; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening; BioRAPP ; EPTD; PIM ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

The Government of Uganda has implemented programs and policies to improve the agricultural sector's recent underperformance. Uganda's two main food security crops, bananas and cassava, have been critically affected by two diseases: Banana Xanthomonas Wilt (BXW) and Cassava Brown Streak Disease (CBSD). The effectiveness of agronomic and cultural practices to control these diseases has been limited, requiring better alternatives. The Ugandan R&D sector in collaboration with international partners have developed genetically engineered innovations that can control both diseases. To examine the potential benefits to consumers and producers from the adoption of genetically engineered banana and cassava with resistance to BXW and CBSD, we use a set of economic impact assessment methods. These include an economic surplus model implemented via IFPRI's DREAMpy framework, a real options model and a limited gender assessment. Results from the economic surplus approach suggest that the adoption of both technologies can benefit Uganda. These results were confirmed for the case of bananas and partially for the case of cassava using the real options and the gender assessment performed. Results from this assessment are predicated on Uganda maintaining an enabling environment that will ensure the deployment and use of both innovations. Looking forward, continuing to improve enabling environment for innovation in Uganda will require addressing current R&D, regulatory, technology deployment and product stewardship processes constraints. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; CRP2; DCA; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all; Capacity Strengthening; BioRAPP ; EPTD; PIM ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

This brief looks at food system innovations and digital technologies as important drivers of productivity growth and improved food and nutrition security. The analysis emphasizes a mix of research feasibility and technology-enabling policy factors necessary to realize pro-poor benefits. Given their transformative potential and the urgency of developing the enabling R&D and policy trajectories required for impact, we highlight genome editing bio-innovations, specifically CRISPR-Cas9, to address sustainable agricultural growth; and digital technologies, including remote sensing, connected sensors, artificial intelligence, digital advisory services, digital financial services, and e-commerce, to help guide the operations and decision-making of farmers, traders, and policymakers in agricultural value chains. The analysis points to the need to close critical gaps in R&D investments, capabilities, and enabling policies as well as regulations to accelerate the scaling and adoption of innovations. At the global level, the engagement of low- and middle-income countries with global players should be facilitated so as to strengthen intellectual property (IP) access and management of innovations; and North-South, South-South, and triangular cooperation should be promoted to strengthen LMICs' regulatory capabilities. At the national level, countries need to invest in science-based participatory approaches to identify and adapt technologies to local conditions; close regulatory gaps through evidence-based frameworks that enable the rapid development, deployment, and safe use of innovations; close institutional and human capacity gaps by addressing limitations in institutional capacities and coordination, while training a new generation of scientists with the skills needed to develop and deliver innovations; develop an understanding of political economy factors for a nuanced knowledge of actors' agendas to better inform communications and address technology hesitancy; close digital infrastructure gaps in rural areas by promoting simultaneous investments in digital infrastructure and electrification, reducing data costs, and improving digital literacy; and develop sustainable business models for digital service providers to help them achieve profitability, interoperability, and scale to reach a sustainable critical mass, and thus facilitate the adoption of food systems innovations.