A Predictive Microsimulation Model to Estimate the Clinical Relevance of Reducing Alcohol Consumption in Alcohol Dependence
In: European addiction research, Band 20, Heft 6, S. 269-284
ISSN: 1421-9891
<b><i>Background:</i></b> Alcohol consumption is one of the most important factors for disease and disability in Europe. In clinical trials, nalmefene has resulted in a significant reduction in the number of heavy-drinking days (HDDs) per month and total alcohol consumption (TAC) among alcohol-dependent patients versus placebo. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> A microsimulation model was developed to estimate alcohol-attributable diseases and injuries in patients with alcohol dependence and to explore the clinical relevance of reducing alcohol consumption. <b><i>Results:</i></b> For all diseases and injuries considered, the number of events (inpatient episodes) increased with the number of HDDs and TAC per year. The model predicted that a reduction of 20 HDDs per year would result in 941 fewer alcohol-attributable events per 100,000 patients, while a reduction in intake of 3,000 g/year of pure alcohol (ethanol) would result in 1,325 fewer events per 100,000 patients. <b><i>Conclusion:</i></b> The potential gains of reducing consumption in alcohol-dependent patients were considerable.