Suchergebnisse

Employment fluctuations are examined, at different levels of aggregation, in a dynamic model that provides firm-specific hiring decisions due to search frictions and sticky pricing. The results indicate that firm-level employment dispersion rises with higher price stickiness and higher demand elasticity, whereas it falls with more convexity of search costs and with a higher labor supply elasticity. Industry-level employment is more volatile and less procyclical than aggregate employment, and a larger industry size reduces volatility and raises co-movement with output. The calibrated model is able to match the volatility, autocorrelation and cyclical correlation of US industry-level employment when incorporating firm-specific technology shocks. ; The author acknowledge financial support from the Spanish government (research project ECO2011-24304).

I show evidence indicating that the variability of the total number of business units (establishments) has significantly increased in recent US business cycles, accounting for nearly 2/3 of real GDP fluctuations during the 2003-2012 decade. Next, I examine the role of business creation and destruction in an estimated DSGE-style model extended with endogenous entry and exit. Shocks on both entry and, especially, exit have played a crucial role on explaining the latest boom-bust cycle in the US economy. I also find that the estimated innovations of total factor productivity are positive and high in 2010-2012, which might be the consequence of the dramatic increase in the exit rates observed during the recession of 2008-2009. ; The author would like to thank the Spanish government (research project ECO2011-24304) for financial support.

This paper describes a model with sticky prices, search frictions and hours-clearing wages that provides firm differentiation across several dimensions: price, output, wage, employment and hours per worker. The connection between pricing and hiring decisions results in firm-level employment fluctuations that depend upon sticky prices, search costs, demand elasticity and labor supply elasticity. The calibrated model is able to match average US industrial employment volatility when assuming a small industrial size, providing one possible answer to Shimer (2005a)'s puzzle. ; The author would like to acknowledge financial support from Fundación Ramón Areces (VII Concurso Investigación en Economía) and the Spanish government (research project ECO2008-02641 from Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación).

We document empirical evidence on the determinants of U.S. regional growth over the last 25 years, with a special attention to the role of entrepreneurial activity or `business dynamism'. The main data source is the Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS) released by the U.S. Census Bureau. The key findings are: i) business entry and exit rates are similarly distributed across states, ii) neither entry nor exit rates have had a significant impact on regional growth, iii) higher business density results in faster regional growth, iv) entry rates have fallen over time and the states with greater business detrending have had weaker economic growth, v) states where entry and exit show substantial comovement (business churning) tend to grow faster, especially after 2007, vi) state-level population growth has no substantial effect on regional growth, and vii) the convergence hypothesis holds across the states of the U.S. ; M. Casares acknowledges financial support of the Spanish government (research project ECO2011-24304 and Programa Campus Iberus de Excelencia Internacional).

The continued spread of COVID-19 suggests a significant possibility of reimposing the lockdowns and stricter social distancing similar to the early phase of pandemic control. We present a dynamic model to quantify the impact of isolation for the contagion curves. The model is calibrated to the COVID-19 outbreak in Spain to study the effects of the isolation enforcement following the declaration of the state of alarm (14 March 2020). The simulations indicate that both the timing and the intensity of the isolation enforcement are crucial for the COVID-19 spread. For example, a 4-day earlier intervention for social distancing would have reduced the number of COVID-19 infected people by 67%. The model also informs us that the isolation enforcement does not delay the peak day of the epidemic but slows down its end. When relaxing social distancing, a reduction of the contagion probability (with the generalization of preventive actions, such as face mask wearing and hands sanitizing) is needed to overcome the effect of a rise in the number of interpersonal encounters. We report a threshold level for the contagion pace to avoid a second COVID-19 outbreak in Spain. ; Casares acknowledges the support of Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovacion, Spanish Government (PGC2018-09354), and Khan acknowledges the support of Carleton University Rapid COVID-19 Research Grant 112940.

We present a dynamic model that produces day-to-day changes in key variables due to the COVID-19 contagion: the number of ever infected people, currently infected, deaths, healed, and infected people who require hospitalization. The model is carefully calibrated to Spanish data and we conduct simulation exercises to study the role of isolation measures to contain the virus spread. We find that virus containment from isolation exhibits increasing returns. Our model simulations show that the State of Alarm intervention of the Spanish government on March 14th, 2020 reduces deaths by almost 85%, and lowers the maximum number of infected people who need daily hospitalization by a factor of 1/12. The simulations also indicate that both the timing and the intensity of the isolation enforcement are key for the evolution of the virus spread and the smoothing of the hospitalization needs.

U.S. inflation has experienced a great moderation in the last two decades. This paper examines the factors behind this and other stylized facts, such as the weaker correlation of inflation and nominal interest rate (Gibson paradox). Our findings point at lower exogenous variability of supply-side shocks and, to a lower extent, structural changes in money demand, monetary policy, and firms' sticky pricing behavior as the main driving forces of the changes observed in recent U.S. business cycles. ; The authors acknowledge financial support from the Spanish government (research projects ECO2010-16970 and ECO2011-24304 from Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación y Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, respectively).

Revisions of US macroeconomic data are not white-noise. They are persistent, correlated with real-time data, and with high variability (around 80% of volatility observed in US real-time data). Their business cycle effects are examined in an estimated DSGE model that distinguishes real-time data from final data. Both the consumption habit formation and the price indexation to lagged inflation fall significantly in the estimation. The model also shows that revision shocks of both output and inflation are expansionary because they occur when real-time published data are too low and the Fed reacts by cutting interest rates. Consumption revisions, by contrast, are countercyclical as consumption habits mirror the observed reduction in real-time consumption. Finally, revisions of the three variables explain 9.3% of changes of output in its long-run variance decomposition. ; The authors would like to acknowledge financial support from the Spanish government (research projects ECO2008-02641 and ECO2010-16970 from Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, respectively).

This paper computes the steady-state optimal rate of inflation assuming two different sticky-price specifications, Calvo (1983) and Taylor (1980), in a model with monopolistic competition. The optimal rate of inflation in steady state is always positive. This result is robust to changes in the degree of price stickiness. In both cases of staggered prices, the optimal rate of inflation is approximately equal to the ratio between the rate of discount and the Dixit-Stiglitz elasticity. ; Asier Aguilera-Bravo gratefully acknowledges financial support from Fundación Banco Sabadell, Fundación Bancaria Caja Navarra and Universidad Pública de Navarra. Miguel Casares would like to acknowledge financial support from the Spanish government (research project ECO2015-64330-P).

We calibrate a two-country New Keynesian model with endogenous portfolio choice and valuation effects to discuss the determinants of the increase in Canadian Net Foreign Assets with the US observed after 2012. Furthermore, we discuss the shocks that may explain the "reversed two-way" capital flows pattern recently characterizing the Canada-US asset trading: Canada has a negative position on bond holdings owned by US investors while a positive balance emerges on its equity holdings from US firms. The combination of a global technology shock, the US fiscal contraction, an adverse wage-push shock in the US and the greater monetary stimulus in the US than in Canada (QE) provide insights to describe the recent capital flows between Canada and the US. Both the QE and the negative wage-push shock in the US play a crucial role as explanatory factors through substantial valuation effects. ; Miguel Casares would like to acknowledge the financial support of the Spanish government (research project ECO2015-64330-P)

To study the efficacy of the public policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic, we develop a model of the rich interactions between epidemiology and socioeconomic choices. Preferences feature a 'fear of death' that lead individuals to reduce their social activity and work time in the face of the pandemic. The aggregate effect of these reductions is to slow the spread of the coronavirus. We calibrate the model, including public policies, to developments in Ontario in spring 2020. The model fits the epidemiological data quite well, including the second wave starting in late 2020. We find that socioeconomic interventions work well in the short term, resulting in a rapid drop off in new cases. The long run, however, is governed chiefly by health developments. Welfare cost calculations point to synergies between the health and socioeconomic measures. ; Casares acknowledges the support of Ministerio de Educación y Cultura, Spanish Government (PGC2018-09354). Gomme acknowledges the support of SSHRC Grant 435–2016–1388. Khan acknowledges the support of Carleton University Rapid COVID-19 Research Grant 112940.

As one alternative to search frictions, wage stickiness is introduced in a New-Keynesian model to generate endogenous unemployment fluctuations due to mismatches between labor supply and labor demand. The effects on an estimated New-Keynesian model for the U.S. economy are: i) the Calvo-type probability on wage stickiness rises, ii) the labor supply elasticity falls, iii) the implied second-moment statistics of the unemployment rate provide a reasonable match with those observed in the data, and iv) wage-push shocks, demand shifts and monetary policy shocks are the three major determinants of unemployment fluctuations. ; The authors would like to acknowledge financial support from the Spanish government (research projects ECO2008-02641, ECO2009-11151 and SEJ2007-66592-C03-01/ECON from Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, respectively). The first author also thanks Fundación Ramón Areces (VII Concurso Investigación en Economía) for financial support.

Erceg, Henderson and Levin (2000, Journal of Monetary Economics) introduce sticky wages in a New-Keynesian general-equilibrium model. Alternatively, it is shown here how wage stickiness may bring unemployment fluctuations into a New-Keynesian model. Using Bayesian econometric techniques, both models are estimated with U.S. quarterly data of the Great Moderation. Estimation results are similar and provide a good empirical fit with the crucial difference that our proposal delivers unemployment fluctuations. Thus, second-moment statistics of U.S. unemployment are replicated reasonably well in our proposed New-Keynesian model with sticky wages. In the welfare analysis, the cost of cyclical fluctuations during the Great Moderation is estimated at 0.60% of steady-state consumption. ; The first and third authors would like to acknowledge financial support from the Spanish government (research projects ECO2008-02641 and SEJ2007-66592C03-01/ECON from Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, respectively). The first author also thanks Fundación Ramón Areces (VII Concurso Investigación en Economía) for financial support.

We provide evidence that both firm and establishment entry rates in the US have been increasing over the past decade, seemingly ending the secular decline observed over previous decades. However, the job-size of new businesses relative to incumbents has decreased substantially. Controlling for these opposite trends reveals that the size-adjusted entry rate continues to decline. ; Miguel Casares would like to thank the Spanish government (research project PGC2018-093542-B-I00) for the financial support.

The authors report empirical evidence indicating that US business formation has recently turned more volatile, procyclical and persistent due to changes in exit dynamics. To study these stylized facts, we estimate a DSGE model with endogenous entry and exit. Business units feature heterogeneous productivity and they shut down if the present value of expected future dividends falls below the current liquidation value. The estimation results imply structural changes in US exit dynamics after 2007: the semi-elasticity of the exit rate to critical productivity has increased and the average plant-level productivity has decreased. ; Miguel Casares would like to acknowledge the financial support of the Spanish government (research project ECO2015-64330-P) and Banco de España.