Abstract. We define landslide Early Warning Systems and present practical guidelines to assist end-users with limited experience in the design of landslide Early Warning Systems (EWSs). In particular, two flow chart-based tools coming from the results of the SafeLand project (7th Framework Program) have been created to make them as simple and general as possible and in compliance with a variety of landslide types and settings at single slope scale. We point out that it is not possible to cover all the real landslide early warning situations that might occur, therefore it will be necessary for end-users to adapt the procedure to local peculiarities of the locations where the landslide EWS will be operated.
Abstract. The terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) technique has been used to accurately reconstruct the 3-D shape of the walls and bastions of the historic city of Mdina (Malta) and underlying terrain. By applying this technique it has also been possible to extract additional quantitative information regarding weathering and deformational processes affecting the structures. Thus, with the aim of identifying the main instability mechanisms, a detailed 3-D crack distribution map has been drawn and the main displacement vectors have been defined.
Abstract. On 20–21 November 2000, a storm of high intensity, with a estimated return period of more than 100 years, triggered over 50 landslides within the province of Pistoia in Tuscany (Italy). These failures can be defined as complex earth slides- earth flows. One of the documented landslides has been investigated by modelling the ground water infiltration process, the positive and negative pore water pressure variations and the effects of these variations on slope stability during the rainfall event. Morphometric and geotechnical analyses were carried out through a series of in-situ and laboratory tests, the results of which were used as input for the modelling process. The surface infiltration rate was initially simulated using the rainfall recorded at the nearest raingauge station. Finite element seepage analysis for transient conditions were then employed to model the changes in pore water pressure during the storm event, using the computed infiltration rate as the ground surface boundary condition. Finally, the limit equilibrium slope stability method was applied to calculate the variations in the factor of safety during the event and thereby determine the critical time of instability. For the investigated site the trend of the factor of safety indicates that the critical time for failure occurs about 18 h after the storm commences, and highlights the key role played by the soil permeability and thickness in controlling the response in terms of slope instability.
Abstract. We propose an original approach to develop rainfall thresholds to be used in civil protection warning systems for the occurrence of landslides at regional scale (i.e. tens of thousands of kilometres), and we apply it to Tuscany, Italy (23 000 km2). Purpose-developed software is used to define statistical intensity–duration rainfall thresholds by means of an automated and standardized analysis of rainfall data. The automation and standardization of the analysis brings several advantages that in turn have a positive impact on the applicability of the thresholds to operational warning systems. Moreover, the possibility of defining a threshold in very short times compared to traditional analyses allowed us to subdivide the study area into several alert zones to be analysed independently, with the aim of setting up a specific threshold for each of them. As a consequence, a mosaic of several local rainfall thresholds is set up in place of a single regional threshold. Even if pertaining to the same region, the local thresholds vary substantially and can have very different equations. We subsequently analysed how the physical features of the test area influence the parameters and the equations of the local thresholds, and found that some threshold parameters can be put in relation with the prevailing lithology. In addition, we investigated the possible relations between effectiveness of the threshold and number of landslides used for the calibration. A validation procedure and a quantitative comparison with some literature thresholds showed that the performance of a threshold can be increased if the areal extent of its test area is reduced, as long as a statistically significant landslide sample is present. In particular, we demonstrated that the effectiveness of a warning system can be significantly enhanced if a mosaic of site-specific thresholds is used instead of a single regional threshold.
Abstract. Within the framework of FP7, an EU-funded SafeLand project, a questionnaire was prepared to collect information about the use of remote sensing for landslide study and to evaluate its actual application in landslide detection, mapping and monitoring. The questionnaire was designed using a Google form and was disseminated among end-users and researchers involved in landslide studies in Europe. In total, 49 answers from 17 different European countries were collected. The outcomes showed that landslide detection and mapping is mainly performed with aerial photos, often associated with optical and radar imagery. Concerning landslide monitoring, satellite radars prevail over the other types of data. Remote sensing is mainly used for detection/mapping and monitoring of slides, flows and lateral spreads with a preferably large scale of analysis (1:5000–1:25 000). All the compilers integrate remote sensing data with other thematic data, mainly geological maps, landslide inventory maps and DTMs and derived maps. According to the research and working experience of the compilers, remote sensing is generally considered to have a medium effectiveness/reliability for landslide studies. The results of the questionnaire can contribute to an overall sketch of the use of remote sensing in current landslide studies and show that remote sensing can be considered a powerful and well-established instrument for landslide mapping, monitoring and hazard analysis.
Abstract. We present a new post-processing methodology for the analysis of InSAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry) multi-temporal measures, based on the temporal under-sampling of displacement time series, the identification of potential changes occurring during the monitoring period and, eventually, the classification of different deformation behaviours. The potentials of this approach for the analysis of geological processes were tested on the case study of Naro (Italy), specifically selected due to its geological setting and related ground instability of unknown causes that occurred in February 2005. The time series analysis of past (ERS1/2 descending data; 1992–2000) and current (RADARSAT-1 ascending data; 2003–2007) ground movements highlighted significant displacement rates (up to 6 mm yr−1) in 2003–2007, followed by a post-event stabilization. The deformational behaviours of instable areas involved in the 2005 event were also detected, clarifying typology and kinematics of ground instability. The urban sectors affected and unaffected by the event were finally mapped, consequently re-defining and enlarging the influenced area previously detected by field observations. Through the integration of InSAR data and conventional field surveys (i.e. geological, geomorphologic and geostructural campaigns), the causes of instability were finally attributed to tectonics.
Abstract. This work proposes a methodology to compare the forecasting effectiveness of different rainfall threshold models for landslide forecasting. We tested our methodology with two state-of-the-art models, one using intensity–duration thresholds and the other based on cumulative rainfall thresholds. The first model identifies rainfall intensity–duration thresholds by means of a software program called MaCumBA (MAssive CUMulative Brisk Analyzer) (Segoni et al., 2014a) that analyzes rain gauge records, extracts intensity (I) and duration (D) of the rainstorms associated with the initiation of landslides, plots these values on a diagram and identifies the thresholds that define the lower bounds of the I–D values. A back analysis using data from past events is used to identify the threshold conditions associated with the least number of false alarms. The second model (SIGMA) (Sistema Integrato Gestione Monitoraggio Allerta) (Martelloni et al., 2012) is based on the hypothesis that anomalous or extreme values of accumulated rainfall are responsible for landslide triggering: the statistical distribution of the rainfall series is analyzed, and multiples of the standard deviation (σ) are used as thresholds to discriminate between ordinary and extraordinary rainfall events. The name of the model, SIGMA, reflects the central role of the standard deviations. To perform a quantitative and objective comparison, these two models were applied in two different areas, each time performing a site-specific calibration against available rainfall and landslide data. For each application, a validation procedure was carried out on an independent data set and a confusion matrix was built. The results of the confusion matrixes were combined to define a series of indexes commonly used to evaluate model performances in natural hazard assessment. The comparison of these indexes allowed to identify the most effective model in each case study and, consequently, which threshold should be used in the local early warning system in order to obtain the best possible risk management. In our application, none of the two models prevailed absolutely over the other, since each model performed better in a test site and worse in the other one, depending on the characteristics of the area. We conclude that, even if state-of-the-art threshold models can be exported from a test site to another, their employment in local early warning systems should be carefully evaluated: the effectiveness of a threshold model depends on the test site characteristics (including the quality and quantity of the input data), and a validation procedure and a comparison with alternative models should be performed before its implementation in operational early warning systems.
Abstract. On 1 October 2009, a prolonged and intense rainstorm triggered hundreds of landslides (predominantly debris flows) in an area of about 50 km2 in the north-eastern sector of Sicily (Italy). Debris flows swept the highest parts of many villages and passed over the SS114 state highway and the Messina-Catania railway, causing more than 30 fatalities. This region has a high relief, due to recent uplift. The peculiar geological and geomorphological framework represents one of the most common predisposing causes of rainstorm-triggered debris flows. This paper deals with the geological and hydro-geomorphological studies performed as a part of the post-disaster activities operated in collaboration with Civil Protection Authority, with the aim at examining landslides effects and mechanisms. The data were elaborated into a GIS platform, to evaluate the influence of urbanisation on the drainage pattern, and were correlated with the lithological and structural framework of the area. Our study points at the evaluation of the volume involved, the detection of triggering mechanisms and the precise reconstruction of the influence of urbanisation as fundamental tools for understanding the dynamics of catastrophic landslides. This kind of analysis, including all the desirable approaches for the correct management of debris flow should be the starting point for robust urban planning.
Abstract. The rapid assessment of the evolution of the phenomena which occur during an emergency, along with an all weather and h24 monitoring capability, are probably the main characteristics of a system aimed at optimizing intervention in natural disasters, such as landslide collapses. A few techniques are able to provide all these features remotely, hence assuring safe conditions to operators. This paper reports on an application of the GB-InSAR (Ground-Based Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) technique to monitor a landslide threatening an infrastructure, the A3 motorway in the Calabria Region (Southern Italy), in emergency conditions. Here, it is evaluated how well this technique is able to satisfy these requirements. On 30 January 2009, a mass movement never detected before and located near Santa Trada viaduct caused the closure of that sector of the A3 motorway. The prompt installation of a GB-InSAR permitted to follow and to understand the temporal evolution of the landslide until the end of the emergency and then safely reopen of the motorway. The main steps of the GB-InSAR interferometry data interpretation used in managing this emergency are described and discussed here. In detail, data collected through a continuous acquisition have permitted the division of the unstable area into three smaller zones characterized by different extents of displacement.
Abstract. We set up an early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Tuscany (23 000 km2). The system is based on a set of state-of-the-art intensity–duration rainfall thresholds (Segoni et al., 2014b) and makes use of LAMI (Limited Area Model Italy) rainfall forecasts and real-time rainfall data provided by an automated network of more than 300 rain gauges. The system was implemented in a WebGIS to ease the operational use in civil protection procedures: it is simple and intuitive to consult, and it provides different outputs. When switching among different views, the system is able to focus both on monitoring of real-time data and on forecasting at different lead times up to 48 h. Moreover, the system can switch between a basic data view where a synoptic scenario of the hazard can be shown all over the region and a more in-depth view were the rainfall path of rain gauges can be displayed and constantly compared with rainfall thresholds. To better account for the variability of the geomorphological and meteorological settings encountered in Tuscany, the region is subdivided into 25 alert zones, each provided with a specific threshold. The warning system reflects this subdivision: using a network of more than 300 rain gauges, it allows for the monitoring of each alert zone separately so that warnings can be issued independently. An important feature of the warning system is that the visualization of the thresholds in the WebGIS interface may vary in time depending on when the starting time of the rainfall event is set. The starting time of the rainfall event is considered as a variable by the early warning system: whenever new rainfall data are available, a recursive algorithm identifies the starting time for which the rainfall path is closest to or overcomes the threshold. This is considered the most hazardous condition, and it is displayed by the WebGIS interface. The early warning system is used to forecast and monitor the landslide hazard in the whole region, providing specific alert levels for 25 distinct alert zones. In addition, the system can be used to gather, analyze, display, explore, interpret and store rainfall data, thus representing a potential support to both decision makers and scientists.
Abstract. We combine on-site investigations with the interpretation of satellite Persistent Scatterers (PS) to analyse ground instability in the historic town of Agrigento, Italy. Geological and geomorphologic surveys, together with geostructural and kinematic analyses, depict the deformational patterns of the northwestern sector of the town, previously documented by extensive literature available for the neighbouring Valley of the Temples. The geological and geomorphologic maps are reconstructed by combining bibliographic studies, field surveys and aerial stereo-interpretation. ERS-1/2 PS data reveal deformation velocities up to 18–20 mm yr−1 in 1992–2000 over the Addolorata landslide, and a sudden motion of 1.6 cm over the Bishop's Seminary in 1999. RADARSAT-1 PS data highlight velocities of 3.0 mm yr−1 for St. Gerlando's Cathedral and reveals worsening of its structural instability since 2006. Ground instability of the town is controlled by low quality and high fracturing of the Agrigento formation rock masses, and the remarkable contrast between different mechanical behaviours of its calcarenite (brittle), silt and clay (plastic) facies. Slow landslides and widespread erosion are also recognised in the clays of the underlying Monte Narbone formation. Coexistence of these factors induces progressive retrogression of the edge of the Girgenti hill and damages the overlying historic buildings, whose stability and safe accessibility are nowadays almost compromised.
Abstract. Although shallow landslides are a very widespread phenomenon, large area (e.g. thousands of square kilometres) early warning systems are commonly based on statistical rainfall thresholds, while physically based models are more commonly applied to smaller areas. This work provides a contribution towards the filling of this gap: a forecasting chain is designed assembling a numerical weather prediction model, a statistical rainfall downscaling tool and a geotechnical model for the distributed calculation of the factor of safety on a pixel-by-pixel basis. The forecasting chain can be used to forecast the triggering of shallow landslides with a 48 h lead time and was tested on a 3200 km2 wide area.
