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This paper explores the cointegration between agricultural commodity prices, crude oil prices and exchange rates. Vector autoregressions (VAR) or vector error correction models (VECMs) are applied to price data for French maize and milling wheat, U.S. corn prices and spot and future oil prices. The series are split between 2000-2007 and 2009–2019 omitting the "Great Recession" allowing for analysis of structural market changes. While oil prices influence futures pricing, the link is neither stable nor widespread. Modeling of time series in search of cointegration must consider structural market changes. Results from a "one-model-fits-all" approach are unlikely to be satisfactory.

The "by-product theory of revolution" & tobit analysis are employed in an attempt to determine economic variables that increase the likelihood of revolution in developing countries. Regression results on the duration of revolution are reported for 54 developing countries located in Asia & Africa, based on data collected for the period 1955 to 1975. Inflation, military expenditure as a % of gross national product (GNP), & the annual growth rate of real GNP are considered. Only the estimated coefficient on the rate of inflation is found to differ significantly from zero at conventional significance levels. This finding supports Milton Friedman's thesis (Money and Economic Development, New York: Praeger, 1973) that high rates of inflation in developing countries, caused by erratic monetary growth, can result in political unrest or revolutionary activity. 4 Tables, 25 References. AA