Suchergebnisse

PRIMES is a large scale model of the energy systems of European Union member-states linked together through energy markets. The PRIMES software is based on a full-scale decision support system (DSS) framework, which is presented in the paper. The DSS framework of PRIMES intends to support the seamless integration of data management, model running and reporting. The system is based on a common data structure, following an entity-relationship model, shared by all system components, including the DBMS component and the algebraic modelling language. The paper illustrates the design philosophy and operation of the DSS framework of PRIMES which can be applied in a number of policy-analysis cases. Copyright © 1999 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

The European policy target of substantially increasing the share of renewable energy in electricity generation, in combination with national subsidization support schemes, has strongly motivated private investors towards this business sector. In Greece, this interest is particularly apparent in the case of wind energy exploitation, due to a favourable legislative framework and the important wind potential available in several Greek regions. In such endowed regions, a very high number of applications were submitted to the competent authority, most of which compete for the same most attractive (windy) sites. The selection among these applications is a multicriteria problem that has been solved with the support of a Decision-Aid tool combining the multicriteria classification method ELECTRE-TRI with Integer Linear Programming. The developed approach takes into account both, the performances of the applications to the evaluation criteria, as well as a number of technical and policy constraints.

Since the decision of the Council of Ministers of the EU Member States (3 March 1997) specifying a decrease of greenhouse gas emissions by 15% in 2010 compared with the 1990, there has been a widespread study of the appropriate policy instruments and the associated costs. The task of meeting the emissions reduction targets should not be underestimated. Reducing CO:! emissions for the EU as a whole over the next 15 years would amount to no less than breaking the historical link between economic growth and energy use. Especially in the short term the problem of stranded costs is important. This paper attempts a synthesis of results coming from several new-generation models developed recently, and examines the economic and energy system implications of both short-term policies and measures for emission reduction as well as long-term technology options.

The purpose of this article is to present a summary of a consistent European Union (EU) energy and energy-related emissions outlook for the period to 2020. The material presented here is based on quantitative analysis and on a process of communication with and feedback from a number of energy experts and organizations. All the results presented for EU energy trends are based on the PRIMES partial equilibrium model for the European energy system, version 2. The PRIMES model provides simulation of the energy system and the decisions of the agents and the markets, covering in detail several sectors, uses, and technologies. The results of this analysis indicate that the EU will not meet the obligations for greenhouse gas emissions reductions it undertook at Kyoto unless it introduces policy initiatives for the abatement of energy-related emissions. Although the industrial, tertiary, household, and transportation sectors can all make significant contributions to CO2 emissions reductions, the electricity- and steam-generation sector appears to offer the greatest potential because of its relative flexibility in terms of technology and fuel choice. Finally, when the only criterion for emissions reductions is economic efficiency, our analysis indicates that reduction levels differ significantly among EU countries.

The purpose of this article is to present a summary of a consistent European Union (EU) energy and energy-related emissions outlook for the period to 2020. The material presented here is based on quantitative analysis and on a process of communication with and feedback from a number of energy experts and organizations. All the results presented for EU energy trends are based on the PRIMES partial equilibrium model for the European energy system, version 2. The PRIMES model provides simulation of the energy system and the decisions of the agents and the markets, covering in detail several sectors, uses, and technologies. The results of this analysis indicate that the EU will not meet the obligations for greenhouse gas emissions reductions it undertook at Kyoto unless it introduces policy initiatives for the abatement of energyrelated emissions. Although the industrial, tertiary, household, and transportation sectors can all make significant contributions to CO2 emissions reductions, the electricity- and steam-generation sector appears to offer the greatest potential because of its relative flexibility in terms of technology and fuel choice. Finally, when the only criterion for emissions reductions is economic efficiency, our analysis indicates that reduction levels differ significantly among EU countries.

This paper describes the methodology of using the PRIMES energy system model to quantify various scenarios accompanying the "" Roadmap for moving to a competitive low-carbon economy in 2050"" published in March 2011 by the European Commission. The paper focuses as well on emission and cost implications.The model based analysis finds that the decarbonisation of the energy system is possible with technologies known today; the power generation sector reduces emissions the most, but also demand side sectors reduce their emissions considerably. Despite considerable restructuring towards using electricity, transportation shows residual emissions by 2050 mainly due to the long-distance road freight transport and aviation. The energy system costs for decarbonisation were found to represent between 0.24 and 1.63 percentage points of cumulative GDP over the time period 2010-2050 higher than in a Reference scenario case which obtains the Climate and Energy package targets in 2020 and a long-term target of 40% emission reductions compared to 1990. The cost range depends on the timely availability of certain decarbonisation options (e.g. CCS, electrification in transportation) and on the extent of emission reduction actions worldwide. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

This paper presents the main energy-related projections for various scenarios quantified with the PRIMES energy system model, used for the impact assessment study accompanying "" Roadmap for moving to a competitive low-carbon economy in 2050"" published in March 2011 by the European Commission.The analysis shows that decarbonising the EU economy in the time horizon to 2050 is feasible with currently known technologies provided that considerable restructuring in energy demand and supply sectors goes together with technology improvement. Energy system costs will have to increase, with capital costs increasing significantly. The results confirm that strategies combining all decarbonisation options are more cost-efficient than strategies excluding some options. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

The paper presents policy analysis regarding the prospects of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) in the energy system of the European Union (EU) up to 2030. The analysis follows a systemic approach, investigating a series of alternative scenarios using the large scale energy systems model PRIMES for all member states (MS) of the EU. Measures supporting the European environmental and energy policy were combined with policies concerning the promotion of the technology in order to identify the economic and environmental implications and the rate of deployment of CCS in the European energy system. ©2008 IEEE.

This paper compares three scenarios of energy demand in the European Union until 2010 and analyses their effects on carbon emissions as well as their impacts on the precursor emissions for acidification and ground-level ozone. The analysis links the results of energy model PRIMES with the integrated environmental assessment model RAINS. Important synergies between climate change policies and policies to control regional air pollution have been identified. Mitigation of acidification and ozone according to the current EU strategy will be easier and cheaper if the Kyoto targets for the reduction of the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) are to be met. In case when the Kyoto target needs to be achieved by individual EU member countries without trading in CO2 emission rights, the costs of controlling the pollutants contributing to acidification and ground-level ozone can be up to 10% lower than for the baseline scenario which does not assume any climate change policies. Although lower, the effects are also important if trading in carbon emission rights is allowed. These cost savings compensate up to 20% of higher costs of energy supplies in the EU and associated with them welfare losses caused by the necessity to meet the carbon constraint. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

In 2009 the EU decided to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at least by 20% in 2020 compared to 1990 and to supply 20% of energy needs by 2020 from renewable energy sources. This paper uses an energy model coupled with a non-CO2 greenhouse gas model to assess the range of policy options that were debated to meet both targets. Policy options include trading of renewable targets, carbon trading in power plants and industry and the use of the Clean Development Mechanism to improve cost-efficiency. The models also examined fairness by analysing the distribution of emission reduction in the non-emission trading sector, the distribution of CO2 allowances in the emission trading sector and the reallocation of renewable targets across Member States. The overall costs of meeting both targets range from 0.4% to 0.6% of GDP in 2020 for the EU as a whole. The redistribution mechanisms employed significantly improve fairness compared to a cost-effective solution. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.