Suchergebnisse

In this paper we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data-rich and unstable environment. The dynamic Nelson–Siegel factor model is extended to allow the model dimension and the parameters to change over time, in order to account for both model uncertainty and sudden structural changes in one setting. The proposed specification performs better than several alternatives, since it incorporates additional macro-finance information during hard times, while it allows for more parsimonious models to be relevant during normal periods. A dynamic variance decomposition measure constructed from our model shows that parameter uncertainty and model uncertainty regarding different choices of predictors explain a large proportion of the predictive variance of bond yields.

In this paper we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data-rich and unstable environment. The dynamic Nelson-Siegel factor model is extended to allow the model dimension and the parameters to change over time, in order to account for both model uncertainty and sudden structural changes, in one setting. The proposed specification performs better than several alternatives, since it incorporates additional macrofinance information during hard times, while it allows for more parsimonious models to be relevant during normal periods. A dynamic variance decomposition measure constructed from our model shows that parameter uncertainty and model uncertainty regarding different choices of predictors explain a large proportion of the predictive variance of bond yields.

This paper discussed the importance of prevention of diabetic foot ulcers and our institution's protocol for prevention, reviewing the existing evidence in the literature regarding the effectiveness of the preventive approach. Diabetes mellitus is the second most significant cause of disease in Singapore after ischaemic heart disease. National University Hospital, Singapore, adopts a two-pronged strategy for the management of diabetic foot ulcers. The most important strategy is prevention, and education is key. Education should mainly be directed at patients and caregivers, but also professionals (general practitioners, allied health professionals and nurses) so that they can effectively educate patients and caregivers. Patient education includes care of diabetes mellitus, care of the foot and use of appropriate footwear. Patients also tend to have poor foot hygiene. Annual foot screening for diagnosed diabetics plays an important role. However, prolonged and sustained government intervention is necessary to provide education and screening on a national scale.