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AbstractEnvironmental pressures in the transition economies of the post‐Soviet era affect not only the quality of life for local populations, but also other key economic issues such as privatization and employment by posing obstacles to their progress. Most studies addressing the environment in transition economies are empirical or analyze the effect of environmental protection on economic variables without first establishing an underlying framework together with the optimal path of environmental quality during the transition. This paper presents such a framework and a policy rule for attainment of the optimal balance between capital and environmental quality in economies in transition. Furthermore, the model shows that pollution taxes or tradable pollution permits are by themselves insufficient to implement the social optimum in a decentralized economy. The results of the model are consistent with depressed economic activity in those economies during an initial phase, and with the diversity of environmental policies in both Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries and the Newly Independent States (NIS).JEL classification: Q20, P20, O13.

ABSTRACTThis paper offers a theory of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) based on the scarcity of capital relative to environmental quality. In a unified treatment of both market and transition economies of the former Soviet Bloc, we characterize a dynamic economy subject to two sources of market failure: a pollution externality and a pure public good 'environmental quality'. We derive a policy rule to implement the social optimum in market and transition economies and show how, in general, a pollution tax or tradable permits can only implement the social optimum if accompanied by other taxes on consumption or profits.

ABSTRACTA number of studies show that climatic shocks have significant economic impacts in several regions of the world, especially in, but not limited to, developing economies. In this paper we focus on a drought-related indicator of well-being and emergency spending in the Brazilian semi-arid zone – rainfed corn market – and estimate aggregate behavioral and forecast models for this market conditional on local climate determinants. We find encouraging evidence that our approach can help policy makers buy time to help them prepare for drought mitigating actions. The analysis is applicable to economies elsewhere in the world and climatic impacts other than those caused by droughts.