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"The Russian Federation is a failed state. It was constructed as the successor of the defunct Soviet Union but confronts crippling challenges to its own survival. During the last three decades, attempts to transform Russia into a nation-state, a civic state, or a stable imperial state have proved futile. The federation is based on brittle historical foundations and is unable to generate a unified national identity that would encompass its entire population. Instead, there is a persistent struggle over Russia's future between nationalists, imperialists, centralists, liberals, and federalists, with growing confrontations between Moscow and the country's diverse regions and ethnic republics. Russia's state failure is exacerbated by a hazardous confluence of factors, including an inability to ensure economic growth, stark socio-economic inequalities, formidable demographic defects, widening disparities between Moscow and the federal subjects, a precarious political pyramid based on personalism and clientelism, deepening distrust of government institutions and policies, increasing public alienation from a corrupt ruling elite, and growing disbelief in state propaganda. More extensive repression to stifle opposition and maintain state integrity in deteriorating economic conditions will raise the prospects for a violent rupture. Paradoxically, while the assumption of power by Vladimir Putin was based on a pledge of preventing Russia's disintegration, he may ultimately be remembered as a failed leader who presided over the country's demise. New territorial entities and proto states will surface as Moscow's credibility crisis deepens amidst spreading ungovernability, elite power struggles, political polarization, nationalist radicalism, and regional and ethnic revivals. The aspiring states that emerge from Russia will not be uniform in their internal political and administrative structures. Border conflicts and territorial claims will be visible between some entities, while others may develop into new federal or confederal states. Escalating turmoil and state rupture in Russia will impact neighboring countries. Some will be susceptible to spillovers of conflict or subject to Moscow's provocations, as the Kremlin will seek to divert attention from domestic upheaval. Other states will benefit from Russia's cleavages by easing their security concerns, expanding their regional influence, and regaining lost territories. The US must develop an effective strategy for managing Russia's rupture by supporting regionalism and federalism, acknowledging the self-determination of nascent states, calibrating the position of other major powers, developing linkages with emerging countries, strengthening the security of Russia's neighbors, and promoting trans-Atlanticism among all burgeoning states"--

Explores the evidence for Russia's long-term imperialist ambitions toward the transatlantic alliance.

Introduction : Russia resurgent -- Checklist of Russia's influence -- Fracturing the West : divisive diplomacy -- Smell the gas : energy as a weapon -- Buying Europe : purchase as politics -- Limiting security : weakening NATO -- Conclusions : challenges for Europe and the United States

Introduction ; New allies, new challenges -- Strategic choices: NATO and EU membership -- Transatlantic connections -- Poland: the key to Central Europe -- Holding the center: Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia -- Baltic bonds: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania -- Balkan partners: Romania and Bulgaria -- Conclusions and recommendations

Near or temporary abroad? -- Russia's foreign policy arsenal -- Retaining a union : Belarus and Kaliningrad -- Regaining a commonwealth : Ukraine and Moldova -- Blocking Western encroachment : the Baltic States -- Neutralizing the core : Central Europe -- Exploiting crises : Adriatic Balkans -- Exporting influence : Black Sea Balkans -- Looking ahead

Cover -- Half Title -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Table of Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Introduction: Nationalism and Ethnic Politics -- Part I. Post-Yugoslavia: Ethnicity Multiplied -- 1. Bosnia-Herzegovina -- Population -- Historical Overview -- Official Policies -- Muslim Organizations -- Serbian Separatists -- Croatian Autonomists -- Minority Organizations -- Chronology -- Notes -- 2. Croatia -- Population -- Historical Overview -- Official Policies -- Croatian Nationalists -- Serbian Secessionists -- Regionalist Groupings -- Minority Organizations -- Chronology -- Notes

Twenty-five years after the end of the Cold War, there is no viable alternative to NATO's security umbrella over an expanded Europe. The eastern part of the continent is confronting a revisionist and expansionist Russia. Its stability can only be ensured by an effective alliance that establishes permanent bases in the most vulnerable regions as a deterrent to Moscow's aggression. A strong US presence within a broad alliance that includes all of Europe's democracies is in America's national interest and that of all NATO members. This is needed to preserve security across the European continent and to assist in confronting assorted threats to the transatlantic commonwealth.

Warsaw's aspirations to become a major EU player and to develop closer ties with Moscow could create the appearance of detachment from and even arrogance toward smaller neighbors.