Suchergebnisse

Executive summary -- What does the future hold for Iraq's al-Anbar Province? -- How this study was conducted -- Implications -- Major takeaways -- Study approach -- Assumptions -- Drivers -- Scenario A: Sunni fight for survival -- Scenario B: Every clan for itself -- Scenario C: Iron fist -- Scenario D: Glueless in Baghdad -- Scenario E: Path to stability -- The importance of drivers -- Indications and warnings -- Conclusions and implications

Analyzing Intelligence , now in a revised and extensively updated second edition, assesses the state of the profession of intelligence analysis from the practitioners point of view. The contributors-most of whom have held senior positions in the US intelligence community-review the evolution of the field, the rise of new challenges, pitfalls in analysis, and the lessons from new training and techniques designed to deal with 21st century national security problems. This second edition updates this indispensable book with new chapters that highlight advances in applying more analytic rigor to an

Improved analysis of the Soviet and communist political systems requires a greater effort to locate that enterprise in the mainstream of comparative political inquiry. Toward this end the article (1) surveys Soviet and Western political process similarities and differences and identifies consequent conceptual implications; (2) introduces a model for comparative politics built in part from political process similarities evident in both Soviet and Western systems; and (3) reports a case study involving a partial application of the zonal model using Soviet political data. The comparative model integrates micro-, intermediate-, and macro-level zones of analysis as research foci and operational variables for empirical testing and generation of theory. The case study—the politics of Soviet industrial reform, 1962–1965—examines the relationship between two analytic zones, and concludes that changes in both the process and the content of economic interest articulation were strongly associated with prior changes in Soviet policy making.

Introduction: The Emergence of a Discipline / James B. Bruce and Roger Z. George -- The analytic tradition -- The evolution of intelligence analysis / John H. Hedley -- The track record: CIA analysis from 1950-2000 / Richard J. policy-analysis relationship -- Serving the national policymaker / John McLaughlin -- A policymaker's perspective: transparency and partnership / James B. Steinberg -- Intelligence analysis: between "politicization" and irrelevance / Gregory F. Treverton -- Enduring challenges -- The art of strategy and analysis / Roger Z. George -- Foreign denial and deception: analytical perspectives / James B. Bruce and Michael Bennett -- U.S. military intelligence analysis: old and new challenges / David Thomas -- Diagnosis and prescription -- Why bad things happen to good analysts / Jack Davis -- Making analysis more reliable: why epistemology matters to intelligence / James B. Bruce -- The missing link: the analyst-collector relationship / James B. Bruce -- Leading analytic change managing analysis in the information age / John C. Gannon -- Intelligence in transition: analysis after 9/11 and Iraq / Mark M. Lowenthal -- The new analysis / Carmen A. Medina -- New frontiers of analysis -- Computer-aided analysis of competing hypotheses / Richards J. Heuer Jr. -- Predictive warning: teams, networks, and scientific method / Timothy J. Smith -- Homeland Security intelligence: rationale, requirements, and current status / Bruce Berkowitz -- Conclusion: the age of analysis / Roger Z. George and James B. Bruce -- Glossary of analytic terms -- Contributors -- Index.

Cover -- Other Titles of Interest from George town University Press -- Title page -- Copyright page -- Dedication -- Contents -- Illustrations -- Foreword -- Preface -- 1 Introduction: Building Analytic Disciplines -- 2 Political Analysis: Making Sense of a Complex World -- 3 Military Analysis: Peering over the Hill -- 4 Economic Analysis: "Invisible Hands" at Work -- 5 Science, Technology, and Weapons Analysis: Leveraging Science for National Security -- 6 Leadership Analysis: The Worldwide Who's Who -- 7 Counterintelligence Analysis: Catching Spies and Countering Foes -- 8 Counterterrorism Analysis: Preempting Threats -- 9 Cyber Analysis: Identifying Malicious Technology and Actors -- 10 National Estimates: Where Intelligence Meets Policy -- 11 Conclusion: Beyond the Disciplines -- Appendix A: Suggested Further Reading on Intelligence Analysis, by Discipline -- Appendix B: Glossary of Intelligence Analysis Terms -- Contributors -- Index.