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During the course of an epidemic, one of the most challenging tasks for authorities is to decide what kind of restrictive measures to introduce and when these should be enforced. In order to take informed decisions in a fully rational manner, the onset of a critical regime, characterized by an exponential growth of the contagion, must be identified as quickly as possible. Providing rigorous quantitative tools to detect such an onset represents an important contribution from the scientific community to proactively support the political decision makers. In this paper, leveraging the quickest detection theory, we propose a mathematical model of the COVID-19 pandemic evolution and develop decision tools to rapidly detect the passage from a controlled regime to a critical one. A new sequential test—referred to as MAST (mean-agnostic sequential test)—is presented, and demonstrated on publicly available COVID-19 infection data from different countries. Then, the performance of MAST is investigated for the second pandemic wave, showing an effective trade-off between average decision delay [Formula: see text] and risk [Formula: see text] , where [Formula: see text] is inversely proportional to the time required to declare the need to take unnecessary restrictive measures. To quantify risk, in this paper we adopt as its proxy the average occurrence rate of false alarms, in that a false alarm risks unnecessary social and economic disruption. Ideally, the decision mechanism should react as quick as possible for a given level of risk. We find that all the countries share the same behaviour in terms of quickest detection, specifically the risk scales exponentially with the delay, [Formula: see text] , where [Formula: see text] depends on the specific nation. For a reasonably small risk level, say, one possibility in ten thousand (i.e., unmotivated implementation of countermeasures every 27 years, on the average), the proposed algorithm detects the onset of the critical regime with delay between a few days to 3 weeks, much ...

Since the beginning of 2020, the outbreak of a new strain of Coronavirus has caused hundreds of thousands of deaths and put under heavy pressure the world's most advanced healthcare systems. In order to slow down the spread of the disease, known as COVID-19, and reduce the stress on healthcare structures and intensive care units, many governments have taken drastic and unprecedented measures, such as closure of schools, shops and entire industries, and enforced drastic social distancing regulations, including local and national lockdowns. To effectively address such pandemics in a systematic and informed manner in the future, it is of fundamental importance to develop mathematical models and algorithms to predict the evolution of the spread of the disease to support policy and decision making at the governmental level. There is a strong literature describing the application of Bayesian sequential and adaptive dynamic estimation to surveillance (tracking and prediction) of objects such as missiles and ships; and in this article, we transfer some of its key lessons to epidemiology. We show that we can reliably estimate and forecast the evolution of the infections from daily — and possibly uncertain — publicly available information provided by authorities, e.g., daily numbers of infected and recovered individuals. The proposed method is able to estimate infection and recovery parameters, and to track and predict the epidemiological curve with good accuracy when applied to real data from Lombardia region in Italy, and from the USA. In these scenarios, the mean absolute percentage error computed after the lockdown is on average below 5% when the forecast is at 7 days, and below 10% when the forecast horizon is 14 days.

The final workshop of the Italy-Croatia Interreg project GUTTA took place in Lecce, at the premises of the Fondazione CMCC, on May 4th, 2022. It reviewed the state of the art of maritime decarbonisation from multiple viewpoints: the regulatory institutions, the research and academia, the industry, and an advocacy organisation. It also provided a special focus on the impact of COVID-19 on the maritime sector, and how it may have affected its pathway towards its decarbonisation. The workshop attempted to bring the latest technical advancements to the broadest audience. The speakers were committed to an effort for plain communication, also to foster cross-cutting interactions among them. The workshop was moderated by a television journalist, and several students from local high schools attended it. On this webpage, all presentations, given in person or remotely, are documented through their slides. The abstracts and CV of the speakers are available here, while the integral video recordings available here. Agenda: Session A Introduction 9:00 Welcome and moderation Marina Lalovic Journalist at RAI – Rainews24 9:10 Institutional greetings/1 Alessandro Delli Noci Regione Puglia, Councillor 9:20 Institutional greetings/2 Maja Markovčić Kostelac EMSA, Director 9:30 An overview of the GUTTA project Paola Agostini CMCC, Senior Scientific Manager Session B Decarbonisation 9:40 Reduction of CO2 emissions from shipping Tristan Smith UCL Energy Institute, Associate Professor and UMAS, Director 10:10 EU legislative proposals for maritime decarbonisation María Alfayate EU Commission, DG-Clima, Policy Officer 10:30 Coffee break 11:00 EU shipping proposals: fit for maritime decarbonisation? Delphine Gozillon T&E, Sustainable Shipping Policy Officer 11:20 Maritime decarbonisation: European framework and shipyards perspective in Italy Chiara Notaro CETENA, Research and WATERBORNE, Board 11:40 The GUTTA-VISIR service for least-CO2 ferry routes Gianandrea Mannarini CMCC, Senior Scientist 12:00 Panel discussion of session B 13:00 ...

The Maritime Situational Awareness Workshop (MSAW) was held 08 - 10 October 2019 in Lerici, La Spezia (Italy). CMRE organized this workshop with the objective of fostering the crossfertilization of ideas from scientific and military domains, toward the design and implementation of future solutions tailored to Maritime Situational Awareness (MSA) operational needs. Centred on the theme of Science and technology meet operational need, the call for papers was distributed amongst the international MSA community during the early months of 2019. In response, CMRE received 48 submissions and several contributions from the European Commission (EC) funded MSA projects. The workshop brought together about 170 participants from 23 countries including scientists, engineers, researchers from scientific communities with national and international authorities, end users and operators, and industrial representatives. Overall the audience was composed of 14% academia, 39% applied research institutes, 31% industry and 16% operational community. This document contains the proceedings of the MSAW'19 papers accepted for presentation. The MSAW'19 was co-sponsored by the EC project RANGER (Radars Long Distance Maritime Surveillance and SAR Operations) and NATO Allied Command Transformation as part of the CMRE Data Knowledge Operational Effectiveness programme. ; NATO Allied Command Transformation (ACT) EC project RANGER