Suchergebnisse

This book presents provides a rigorous yet accessible treatment of the main topics in climate change policy using a large body of research generated using WITCH (World Induced Technical Change Hybrid), an innovative and path-breaking integrated assessment model.

The COVID-19 pandemic might have tremendous consequences on decarbonization efforts across the globe. Understanding governments' policy action in the short and medium term is key to assess whether the response to the crisis will crowd out or fast-track decarbonization efforts. We surveyed over 200 policymakers and stakeholders from 55 different countries to collect climate policy expectations in various sectors and regions in the next five years. While support for high-emitting sectors is not expected to dissolve completely, commitment to policies supporting the transition to low-carbon energy and transport sectors is expected to increase substantially. This is true for OECD and Asian countries, representing approximately 90% of global emissions. Our results suggest that expectations that the COVID-19 pandemic will accelerate decarbonization efforts are widely shared.

The COVID-19 pandemic might have tremendous consequences on decarbonization efforts across the globe. Understanding governments' policy action in the short and medium term is key to assess whether the response to the crisis will crowd out or fast-track decarbonization efforts. We surveyed over 200 policymakers and stakeholders from 55 different countries to collect climate policy expectations in various sectors and regions in the next five years. While support for high-emitting sectors is not expected to dissolve completely, commitment to policies supporting the transition to low-carbon energy and transport sectors is expected to increase substantially. This is true for OECD and Asian countries, representing approximately 90% of global emissions. Our results suggest that expectations that the COVID-19 pandemic will accelerate decarbonization efforts are widely shared.

As climate change progresses, the risk of adverse impacts on vulnerable populations is growing. As governments seek increased and drastic action, policymakers are likely to seek quantification of climate-change impacts and the consequences of mitigation policies on these populations. Current models used in climate research have a limited ability to represent the poor and vulnerable, or the different dimensions along which they face these risks. Best practices need to be adopted more widely, and new model features that incorporate social heterogeneity and different policy mechanisms need to be developed. Increased collaboration between modellers, economists, and other social scientists could aid these developments. We review the history and state of the art of models used in climate research, including integrated assessment models (IAMs) and national studies, and those that model mitigation and climate-change impacts. We assess how and to what extent they represent distributional impacts within countries. We argue that there is much scope to improve the representation of income distribution and poverty. Given the diversity of models, this endeavour presents fundamental challenges for some models, but possibly requires only incremental changes in others.

As climate change progresses, the risk of adverse impacts on vulnerable populations is growing. As governments seek increased and drastic action, policymakers are likely to seek quantification of climate-change impacts and the consequences of mitigation policies on these populations. Current models used in climate research have a limited ability to represent the poor and vulnerable, or the different dimensions along which they face these risks. Best practices need to be adopted more widely, and new model features that incorporate social heterogeneity and different policy mechanisms need to be developed. Increased collaboration between modellers, economists, and other social scientists could aid these developments. We review the history and state of the art of models used in climate research, including integrated assessment models (IAMs) and national studies, and those that model mitigation and climate-change impacts. We assess how and to what extent they represent distributional impacts within countries. We argue that there is much scope to improve the representation of income distribution and poverty. Given the diversity of models, this endeavour presents fundamental challenges for some models, but possibly requires only incremental changes in others.

One hundred and ninety-three governments adopted the Paris Agreement on Climate Change in 2015. The agreement foresees, for the near term, a new bottom-up process where countries pledge so-called nationally determined contributions (NDCs) for reducing their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2025–2030. At the same time, the Paris Agreement defines the longterm objective to hold temperature change to well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit it further to 1.5 °C. The consistency between the NDCs and the long-term temperature goals is planned to be regularly assessed in global stocktaking exercises as part of the international negotiations. At the same time, countries have also committed themselves to implement a set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in order to eradicate poverty, protect the global environment and spur inclusive economic development. Within this context, the CD-LINKS project (www.cd-links.org) brought together an international team of researchers with global, national and sectoral expertise to explore possible linkages between national and global pathways consistent with the overall objective of the Paris Agreement and sustainable development. Part of this work is summarised in this special issue in Climatic Change, which contains eleven papers, including this introductory one, presenting the insights from the collaboration between national and global modelling teams and yielding a more coherent and detailed picture of the future than is typical of climate change mitigation pathways studies focusing on the global level only.

One hundred and ninety-three governments adopted the Paris Agreement on Climate Change in 2015. The agreement foresees, for the near term, a new bottom-up process where countries pledge so-called nationally determined contributions (NDCs) for reducing their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2025–2030. At the same time, the Paris Agreement defines the longterm objective to hold temperature change to well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit it further to 1.5 °C. The consistency between the NDCs and the long-term temperature goals is planned to be regularly assessed in global stocktaking exercises as part of the international negotiations. At the same time, countries have also committed themselves to implement a set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in order to eradicate poverty, protect the global environment and spur inclusive economic development. Within this context, the CD-LINKS project (www.cd-links.org) brought together an international team of researchers with global, national and sectoral expertise to explore possible linkages between national and global pathways consistent with the overall objective of the Paris Agreement and sustainable development. Part of this work is summarised in this special issue in Climatic Change, which contains eleven papers, including this introductory one, presenting the insights from the collaboration between national and global modelling teams and yielding a more coherent and detailed picture of the future than is typical of climate change mitigation pathways studies focusing on the global level only.

This is the final version. Available on open access from National Academy of Sciences via the DOI in this record ; Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and its global impacts are unprecedented, decisions are taken in a highly uncertain, complex, and rapidly changing environment. In such a context, in which human lives and the economy are at stake, we argue that using ideas and constructs from modern decision theory, even informally, will make policymaking a more responsible and transparent process. ; Alfred P. Sloan Foundation ; Bocconi University ; European Union FP7 ; European Union Horizon 2020 ; Agence Nationale de la Recherche ; Foerder Institute at Tel-Aviv University ; Israel Science Foundation