Suchergebnisse

Union Civil Protection Mechanism Decision No 1313/2013/EU requires EU Member States and UCPM participating states to report to the Commission on their disaster risk management activities to support formulating an EU risk management policy that would complement and enhance the national ones. The aim of this report is to support the use of the new "Reporting Guidelines on Disaster Risk Management, Art. 6(1)d of Decision No.1313/2013/EU," (2019/C 428/07) by relevant national authorities. This report is the second in the series of reports "Recommendations for National Risk Assessment for Disaster Risk Management". The aim of this series of reports is to build-up a network of experts involved in the different aspects of the national risk assessment process. The European Commission Joint Research Centre joins national, regional and global efforts to acquire better risk governance structure through evidences, science and knowledge management. Risk governance facilitates policy cycle for the implementation of integrated disaster risk management. Risk Assessment is positioned at the heart of the policy cycle and provides evidence for DRM planning and the implementation of prevention and preparedness measures. This report explains the purpose and objective of each step of the reporting to give meaning and motivation to demanding risk governance processes. It collects the contributions of fourteen expert teams that prepared short step by step description of disaster risk assessment approaches specific for the chosen hazard/asset usable in the context of a national risk assessment exercise and addressed national risk assessment capability to be further developed in order to bring the evidence to next level A special focus is dedicated to capability needed to tackle climate change. The risks covered are of natural, anthropogenic and socio-natural origin: floods, droughts, wildfires, biodiversity loss, earthquakes, volcano eruptions, biological disasters, Natech accidents, chemical accidents, nuclear accidents, terrorist attacks, critical infrastructure disruptions, cybersecurity and hybrid threats.

Abstract. The characterization of triggering dynamics and remobilized volumes is crucial to the assessment of associated lahar hazards. We propose an innovative treatment of the cascading effect between tephra fallout and lahar hazards based on probabilistic modelling that also accounts for a detailed description of source sediments. As an example, we have estimated the volumes of tephra fallout deposit that could be remobilized by rainfall-triggered lahars in association with two eruptive scenarios that have characterized the activity of the La Fossa cone (Vulcano, Italy) in the last 1000 years: a long-lasting Vulcanian cycle and a subplinian eruption. The spatial distribution and volume of deposits that could potentially trigger lahars were analysed based on a combination of tephra fallout probabilistic modelling (with TEPHRA2), slope-stability modelling (with TRIGRS), field observations, and geotechnical tests. Model input data were obtained from both geotechnical tests and field measurements (e.g. hydraulic conductivity, friction angle, cohesion, total unit weight of the soil, and saturated and residual water content). TRIGRS simulations show how shallow landsliding is an effective process for eroding pyroclastic deposits on Vulcano. Nonetheless, the remobilized volumes and the deposit thickness threshold for lahar initiation strongly depend on slope angle, rainfall intensity, grain size, friction angle, hydraulic conductivity, and the cohesion of the source deposit.

Abstract. Fallout of ballistic blocks and bombs ejected from eruptive vents represents a well-known hazard in areas proximal to volcanoes (mostly <5 km from the vent). However, fallout of large clasts sedimenting from plume margins that extend to medial areas and have the potential to produce severe injuries to people and cause damage to infrastructure, is often overlooked. Recent eruptive events at Mount Etna (Italy) provide a clear example where large-clast fallout from plume margins (>5 cm) has posed a real threat both to the many visitors reaching the summit area and to local infrastructure, and, therefore, has been selected as a case study. To quantify this hazard, a new particle sedimentation model was calibrated with field data and then used for probabilistic hazard assessments. For a fully probabilistic scenario the hazard zone covered 72 km2 and included some 125 km of paths and roads, as well as 15 buildings. Evacuation on foot to a safe area was estimated at almost 4 h, but this could be reduced to less than 3 h if two shelters were provided. Our results show the importance of integrating probabilistic hazard analysis of large-clast fallout within effective strategies of risk management and reduction, especially in the case of volcanoes where visitors can reach the summit areas.

Abstract. We present a detailed chronological reconstruction of the 2011 eruption of the Cordón Caulle volcano (Chile) based on information derived from newspapers, scientific reports and satellite images. Chronology of associated volcanic processes and their local and regional effects (i.e. precursory activity, tephra fallout, lahars, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows) are also presented. The eruption had a severe impact on the ecosystem and on various economic sectors, including aviation, tourism, agriculture and fishing industry. Urban areas and critical infrastructures, such as airports, hospitals and roads, were also impacted. The concentration of PM10 (particulate matter  ≤  10 µm) was measured during and after the eruption, showing that maximum safety threshold levels of daily and annual exposures were surpassed in several occasions. Probabilistic analyses suggest that this combination of atmospheric and eruptive conditions has a probability of occurrence of about 1 %. The management of the crisis, including evacuation of people, is discussed, as well as the comparison with the impact associated with other recent eruptions located in similar areas and having similar characteristics (i.e. Quizapu, Hudson and Chaitén volcanoes). This comparison shows that the regions downwind and very close to the erupting volcanoes suffered very similar problems, without a clear relation to the intensity of the eruption (e.g. health problems, damage to vegetation, death of animals, roof collapse, air traffic disruptions, road closure, lahars and flooding). This suggests that a detailed collection of impact data can be largely beneficial for the development of plans for the management of an eruptive crisis and the mitigation of associated risk of the Andean region.

Abstract. Evacuation planning and management represent a key aspect of volcanic
crises because they can increase people's protection as well as minimize
potential impacts on the economy, properties and infrastructure of the
affected area. We present an agent-based simulation tool that assesses the
effectiveness of different evacuation scenarios using the small island of
Vulcano (southern Italy) as a case study. Simulation results show that the
overall time needed to evacuate people should be analysed together with the
percentage of people evacuated as a function of time and that a simultaneous
evacuation on Vulcano is more efficient than a staged evacuation. For
example, during the touristic (high) season between July and August, even
though the overall duration is similar for both evacuation strategies, after
∼ 6 h about 96 % of people would be evacuated with a
simultaneous evacuation, while only 86 % would be evacuated with a staged
evacuation. We also present a model to assess the economic impact of
evacuation as a function of evacuation duration and of the starting period with
respect to the touristic season. It reveals that if an evacuation lasting 3 to 6 months was initiated at the beginning or at the end of the touristic
season (i.e. June or November), it would cause a very different economic
impact on the tourism industry (about 78 %–88 % and 2 %–7 % of the total
annual turnover, respectively). Our results show how the assessment of
evacuation scenarios that consider human and economic impact carried out in
a pre-disaster context helps authorities develop evacuation plans and make
informed decisions outside the highly stressful time period that
characterizes crises.

During explosive eruptions, emergency responders and government agencies need to make fast decisions that should be based on an accurate forecast of tephra dispersal and assessment of the expected impact. Here, we propose a new operational tephra fallout monitoring and forecasting system based on quantitative volcanological observations and modelling. The new system runs at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Etneo (INGV-OE) and is able to provide a reliable hazard assessment to the National Department of Civil Protection (DPC) during explosive eruptions. The new operational system combines data from low-cost calibrated visible cameras and satellite images to estimate the variation of column height with time and model volcanic plume and fallout in near-real-time(NRT). The new system has three main objectives: (i) to determine column height in NRT using multiple sensors (calibrated cameras and satellite images); (ii) to compute isomass and isopleth maps of tephra deposits in NRT; (iii) to help the DPC to best select the eruption scenarios run daily by INGV-OE every three hours. A particular novel feature of the new system is the computation of an isopleth map, which helps to identify the region of sedimentation of large clasts (≥5 cm) that could cause injuries to tourists, hikers, guides, and scientists, as well as damage buildings in the proximity of the summit craters. The proposed system could be easily adapted to other volcano observatories worldwide. ; Published ; id 2987 ; 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio ; JCR Journal

During explosive eruptions, emergency responders and government agencies need to make fast decisions that should be based on an accurate forecast of tephra dispersal and assessment of the expected impact. Here, we propose a new operational tephra fallout monitoring and forecasting system based on quantitative volcanological observations and modelling. The new system runs at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Etneo (INGV-OE) and is able to provide a reliable hazard assessment to the National Department of Civil Protection (DPC) during explosive eruptions. The new operational system combines data from low-cost calibrated visible cameras and satellite images to estimate the variation of column height with time and model volcanic plume and fallout in near-real-time (NRT). The new system has three main objectives: (i) to determine column height in NRT using multiple sensors (calibrated cameras and satellite images); (ii) to compute isomass and isopleth maps of tephra deposits in NRT; (iii) to help the DPC to best select the eruption scenarios run daily by INGV-OE every three hours. A particular novel feature of the new system is the computation of an isopleth map, which helps to identify the region of sedimentation of large clasts (≥5 cm) that could cause injuries to tourists, hikers, guides, and scientists, as well as damage buildings in the proximity of the summit craters. The proposed system could be easily adapted to other volcano observatories worldwide.

Abstract. The Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes (CVZA) extends from southern Peru, through the Altiplano of Bolivia, to the Puna of northern Chile and Argentina, between latitudes 14–28° S of the Andean cordillera, with altitudes rising up to more than 4000 m above sea level. Given the large number of active volcanoes in this area, which are often located close to both urban areas and critical infrastructure, prioritization of volcanic risk reduction strategies is crucial. The identification of hazardous active volcanoes is challenging due to the limited accessibility, the scarce historical record, and the difficulty in identifying relative or absolute ages due to the extreme arid climate. Here, we identify the highest-risk volcanoes combining complementary strategies: (i) a regional mapping based on volcanic hazard parameters and surrounding density of elements at risk and (ii) the application of the recently developed volcanic risk ranking (VRR) methodology that integrates hazard, exposure, and vulnerability as factors that increase risk and resilience as a factor that reduces risk. We identified 59 active and potentially active volcanoes that not only include the volcanic centres with the most intense and frequent volcanic eruptions (e.g. the El Misti and Ubinas volcanoes, Peru) but also the highest density of exposed elements (e.g. the cities of Arequipa and Moquegua, Peru). VRR was carried out for 19 out of the 59 volcanoes, active within the last 1000 years or with unrest signs, highlighting those with the highest potential impact (i.e. Cerro Blanco in Argentina and Yucamane, Huaynaputina, Tutupaca, and Ticsani in Peru) and requiring risk mitigation actions to improve the capacity to face or overcome a disaster (e.g. volcanic hazard and risk/impact assessments, monitoring systems, educational activities, and implementation of early warning systems).