What weather variables are important for wet and slab avalanches under a changing climate in a low-altitude mountain range in Czechia?
In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences: NHESS, Band 22, Heft 10, S. 3501-3525
ISSN: 1684-9981
Abstract. Climate change impact on avalanches is ambiguous. Fewer, wetter, and smaller avalanches are expected in areas where snow cover is declining, while
in higher-altitude areas where snowfall prevails, snow avalanches are frequently and spontaneously triggered. In the present paper, we (1) analyse
trends in frequency, magnitude, and orientation of wet- and slab-avalanche activity during 59 winter seasons (1962–2021) and (2) detect the main
meteorological and snow drivers of wet and slab avalanches for winter seasons from 1979 to 2020 using machine learning techniques – decision trees
and random forest – with a tool that can balance the avalanche-day and non-avalanche-day dataset. In terms of avalanches, low to medium–high mountain
ranges are neglected in the literature. Therefore we focused on the low-altitude Czech Krkonoše mountain range (Central Europe). The analysis is
based on an avalanche dataset of 60 avalanche paths. The number and size of wet avalanches in February and March have increased, which is consistent with the
current literature, while the number of slab avalanches has decreased in the last 3 decades. More wet-avalanche releases might be connected to
winter season air temperature as it has risen by 1.8 ∘C since 1979. The random forest (RF) results indicate that wet avalanches are influenced by 3 d maximum and minimum air temperature, snow depth, wind speed, wind
direction, and rainfall. Slab-avalanche activity is influenced by snow depth, rainfall, new snow, and wind speed. Based on the balanced RF method,
air-temperature-related variables for slab avalanches were less important than rain- and snow-related variables. Surprisingly, the RF analysis
revealed a less significant than expected relationship between the new-snow sum and slab-avalanche activity. Our analysis allows the use of the
identified wet- and slab-avalanche driving variables to be included in the avalanche danger level alerts. Although it cannot replace operational
forecasting, machine learning can allow for additional insights for the decision-making process to mitigate avalanche hazard.