Suchergebnisse

PurposeThe study aims to assess the effectiveness of prevailing methods for quantifying physical climate risks. Its goal is to evaluate their utility in guiding financial decision-making within the real estate industry. Whilst climate risk has become a pivotal consideration in transaction and regulatory compliance, the existing tools for risk quantification frequently encounter criticism for their perceived lack of transparency and comparability.Design/methodology/approachWe utilise a sequential exploratory mixed-methods analysis to integrate qualitative aspects of underlying tool characteristics with quantitative result divergence. In our qualitative analysis, we conduct interviews with companies providing risk quantification tools. We task these providers with quantifying the physical risk of a fictive pan-European real estate portfolio. Our approach involves an in-depth comparative analysis, hypothesis tests and regression to discern patterns in the variability of the results.FindingsWe observe significant variations in the quantification of physical risk for the pan-European portfolio, indicating limited utility for decision-making. The results highlight that variability is influenced by both the location of assets and the hazard. Identified reasons for discrepancies include differences in regional databases and models, variations in downscaling and corresponding scope, disparities in the definition of scores and systematic uncertainties.Practical implicationsThe study assists market participants in comprehending both the quantification process and the implications associated with using tools for financial decision-making.Originality/valueTo our knowledge, this study presents the initial robust empirical evidence of variability in quantification outputs for physical risk within the real estate industry, coupled with an exploration of their underlying reasons.

PurposeThis paper investigates the relationship between the sustainable finance disclosure regulation (SFDR) and the performance of unlisted real estate funds.Design/methodology/approachWhile existing literature has primarily focused on the impact of voluntary sustainability disclosure, such as certifications or reporting standards, this study addresses a significant research gap by constructing and analyzing the financial J-Curve of 40 funds under the SFDR. The authors employ a panel regression analysis to examine the effects of different SFDR categories on fund performance.FindingsThe findings reveal that funds categorized under Article 8 of the SFDR do not exhibit significantly poorer performance compared to funds categorized under Article 6 during the initial phase after launch. On average, Article 8 funds even demonstrate positive returns earlier than their peers. However, the panel regression analysis suggests that Article 8 funds slightly underperform when compared to Article 6 funds over time.Practical implicationsWhile investors may not anticipate lower initial returns when opting for higher SFDR categories, they should nevertheless be aware of the limitations inherent in the existing SFDR labeling system within the unlisted real estate sector.Originality/valueTo the best of our knowledge, this study represents the first quantitative examination of unlisted real estate fund performance under the SFDR. By providing unique insights into the J-Curves of funds, our research contributes to the existing body of knowledge on the impact of sustainability regulations in the financial sector.

PurposeThis study examines whether green buildings enjoy more favorable financing terms compared to their non-green counterparts, exploring the presence of a green discount in commercial real estate lending. Despite the extensive research on green premiums on the equity side, lending has received limited attention in the existing literature, even as regulations have increased and ambitious net-zero targets have been set in the banking sector.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, the authors leverage a unique dataset comprising European commercial loan data spanning from 2018 to 2023, with a total loan value exceeding €30 billion. Hedonic regression analysis is used to isolate a potential green discount. Specifically, the authors rely on property assessments conducted by lenders to investigate whether green properties exhibit lower interest rate spreads and higher loan-to-value (LTV) ratios.FindingsThe findings reveal the existence of a green discount in European commercial real estate lending, with green buildings enjoying a 5.35% lower contracted loan spread and a 3.92% lower target spread compared to their non-green counterparts. However, this analysis does not indicate any distinct advantage in terms of LTV ratios for green buildings.Practical implicationsThis research contributes to a deeper understanding of the interaction between green properties and commercial real estate lending, offering valuable insights for both lenders and investors.Originality/valueThis study, to the best of the authors' knowledge, represents the first of its kind in a European context and provides empirical evidence for the presence of a green discount.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to critically review the German mortgage lending value (MLV) and to adapt it in order to find a new concept that could serve as the basis for an internationally accepted standard for valuations for lending purposes.Design/methodology/approachThe research is based on a critical review of existing practices and literature and applies developments in the area of risk management tools, modern valuation techniques as well as the results of the consultation for Basel II in order to find an improved method.FindingsIt was found that a value‐at‐risk approach and the implementation of simulation helps to understand the concept of MLV. The results also indicate that the German system of calculating the MLV has to be improved.Practical implicationsBanks are in need of tools, reliable instruments and a strong theoretical basis when evaluating their collateral. The valuation of real estate for long‐term loans has always been a problem. This paper indicates a strong basis for the implementation of tools in every day business.Originality/valueValue‐at‐risk concepts and the concepts of maximum/maximum potential loss within a (future) time period have until today not been integrated in the valuation of real estate serving as collateral.

PurposeThe risk management of transitory risk for real assets has gained large interest especially in the past 10 years among researchers as well as market participants. In addition, the recent regulatory tightening in the EU urges financial market participants to disclose sustainability-related financial risk, without providing any methodological guidance. The purpose of the study is the identification and explanation of the methodological limitations in the field of transitory risk modeling and the logic step to advance toward a stochastic approach.Design/methodology/approachThe study reviews the literature on deterministic risk modeling of transitory risk exposure for real estate highlighting the heavy methodological limitations. Based on this, the necessity to model transitory risk stochastically is described. In order to illustrate the stochastic risk modeling of transitory risk, the empirical study uses a Markov Switching Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model to quantify the carbon price risk exposure of real assets.FindingsThe authors find academic as well as regulatory urgency to model sustainability risk stochastically from a conceptual point of view. The own empirical results show the superior goodness of fit of the multiregime Markov Switching Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity in comparison to their single regime peer. Lastly, carbon price risk simulations show the increasing exposure across time.Practical implicationsThe practical implication is the motivation of the stochastic modeling of sustainability-related risk factors for real assets to improve the quality of applied risk management for institutional investment managers.Originality/valueThe present study extends the existing literature on sustainability risk for real estate essentially by connecting the transitory risk management of real estate and stochastic risk modeling.

Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to analyze potential diversification benefits of American real estate assets for European investors. Since European real estate yields are compressed due to several reasons, including high market liquidity and low interest rates, investment managers seek opportunities to provide attractive risk-return profiles for investors. Therefore, empirical proof for improvements to risk-return profiles is highly necessary in the outlined market environment.


Design/methodology/approach
The empirical study uses a classic mean-variance optimization approach. In order to isolate potential diversification benefits two investment environments are compared: first, an optimization for the European investment horizon is carried out. Subsequently, the same optimization is performed for European and American assets. For both scenarios, risk-return profiles are obtained and compared.


Findings
Two major findings can be stated: first, higher correlations between European and American markets can be observed for the present data in comparison to older studies. Second, the mean-variance optimization of solely European and then mixed European-American portfolios show improvements in risk-return profiles for the latter. Thus, diversification benefits of American properties for European real estate investors can be confirmed.


Practical implications
The empirical study reveals diversification benefits for European investors. Thus, the asset allocation of European investors could be affected by allocating capital toward the USA in order to improve risk-return profiles.


Originality/value
The value of the paper is a precise analysis of two markets, namely Europe as well as the US. Thus, the paper isolates the practical implications for European investors, who are trying to improve risk-returns profile by allocating capital toward the USA.

Purpose– The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of changes in macro-economic conditions going forward, focusing on a change in interest policy, with regard to office letting and investment markets.Design/methodology/approach– For this analysis, the authors constructed two vector-autoregressive models, measuring the response of office rents and capital values in Germany to economic impulses. The authors isolated effects of unique exogenous positive shocks (such as economic growth or interest leaps) on the basis of impulse-response functions in order to understand the complex dynamic interdependence between several economic factors and office performance changes.Findings– The authors initially find a moderately positive development of both office performance components even although supposing an increase in interest level. In terms of capital values, the authors find that they do not drop before 1.5 years after the interest impulse and the negative effect peaks after approximately nine quarters. Furthermore, the reaction to a change in GDP is significantly lower than a reaction to the interest rate, but impulses in other macro-economic factors provoke stronger reactions. Finally, the authors find that a positive interest shock leads to a comparably robust development and economic sustainability in office rents throughout a consideration horizon of 24 quarters.Research limitations/implications– Estimations are based on observations from a time period containing two rather extraordinary market phases. As they included bubble growth and the low-interest environment, the authors find that certain patterns in both phases neutralize each other when looking at the total time frame. The authors constructed sub-samples to compensate for this. However, the research does not provide to what extent the measured impulse-responses stay forecast-proof, if the market moves into a phase of short-term normalization.Practical implications– This paper provides insights into estimated impulse-response patterns on a hypothetical sudden increase of several macro-economic determinants. On this basis, the probable reaction to an increase in, for example, the interest rate level can be approximated. Also, the paper provides a fundamental understanding of the economic sustainability of German office properties in terms of their value and rent performance in the case of exogenous shocks.Originality/value– This paper contains the first vector-autoregressive, impulse-response analysis of office markets in Germany in the context of several macro-economic drivers, including the interest level. It delivers insights into market reaction patterns on the basis of simulated one standard deviation shocks in all included variables.